Match Preview: Northampton Town

With the transfer window closing fast Nigel Pearson decided he had little option than to strengthen his back line. The Aleksander Tunchev sized hole in City’s defence was certainly exposed against Huddersfield, and whilst City have kept two clean sheets in three since the Bulgarian’s season ending injury, experience is clearly required for the big games. Wayne Brown seems like an excellent fit.

Yet we’re still waiting on another striker to cover for Steve Howard. Tuesday’s goalless draw seemed to expose quite vividly the lack of a Plan B. Howard is the player with the most fouls in League One (80) and will certainly miss more games before the season is over through suspension if not injury.

Key Stats
Northampton are one of only four teams to keep a clean sheet against Leicester this season. Most of their campaign has been a picture perfect illustration of mid-table mediocrity, full of statistics that are just painfully average. The Cobblers have the 13th best attack and the 10th best defence. Since the middle of October they have done little but oscillate between 12th and 16th position. The club’s longest unbeaten run this year has been four games and they’ve managed only one win since Christmas…against Crewe.

Leicester should know that Sixfields has proven a tricky ground so far this season; Millwall, Peterborough, Leeds and Huddersfield have all failed to win here. In fact, just two sides, Oldham and Colchester, have managed it this season. On the upside, Northampton have won just once against a side in the top half of League One. Perhaps the smart money should be placed on the draw.

On This Day
Tony Cottee’s first half strike at Old Trafford on this day in 1998 gave the Foxes a famous win over the champions. United threw everything at Martin O’Neil’s men, but some resolute defending, a fair bit of luck and one of the worst misses you’ll ever see from Teddy Sherringham ensured that City left with their fifth away win of the season.

Selected Odds
Northamton - 11/4 (BlueSq)
Draw – 5/2 (Bet365)
Leicester – 11/10 (totesport)

Match Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton and Hove Albion are a rare breed in League One. They are one of only two sides in the division who could still do a league double over Leicester. Micky Adams’ side were the last team in League One to beat the Foxes, but since that October night the pressure on the Seagulls boss has only increased. Defeat at the Walkers could leave Brighton in the bottom four.

Key Stats
For some there’s no place like home, for Brighton there’s no better time to get away. The Seagulls have lost their last four in front of their own fans. Brighton’s last win came at Swindon, but it has been their only win in the last 10 games. The club is on a miserable run of just five points from the last 30 available. Brighton haven’t taken more than six points in a calendar month since August.

By contrast, Leicester have taken 35 of the 39 points on offer since they last met Albion. This is City’s best unbeaten streak since they went 15 games unbeaten under Mickey Adams in 2002/03. Leicester have already taken as many points in their current run of form as they did in that 15 match sequence six years ago.

Brighton do possess threats. Despite their lowly goals for tally, Nicky Forster appears to be in a rich vein of form with four goals in his last four games. As Leicester learned to their cost in October, Brighton also have the capacity to strike late on. Their seven league goals scored between the 85th-90th minute mark has been their most productive period of the match all season.

With MK Dons facing hapless Leyton Orient at home, one would assume City will need all three points to maintain their nine point advantage, currently the biggest lead in the Football League.

On This Day
Both sides were reduced to 10 men on this day in 2001 as an Arnar Gunnlaugsson screamer put Leicester City into the 5th Round of the FA Cup at the expense of Aston Villa. Darius Vassell was dismissed in the 34th minute before Adi Akinbyi put the Foxes in front. Calum Davidson then received his marching orders, and Villa looked like they might have done enough for a replay when Julian Joachim equalised with 15 minutes remaining. Gunnlaugsson stole the headlines, but it was the Cork youngster Damien Delaney who received the plaudits for a commanding performance in midfield.

Selected Odds
Backing Leicester at weekends this season has yielded a +38% return. Betting on City in midweek has brought in just a +5% return.

Leicester – 2/5 (bet365)
Draw – 7/2 (bet365)
Brighton – 8/1 (Sky Bet)

Match Review: Leicester City 4-2 Huddersfield Town

The countdown to promotion continues unabated. Seven wins to go.

Here are some interesting numbers…

106 – The number of points Leicester are on course to reach at their current rate of 2.3 points per game. If they manage this the club will equal Reading’s record from 2005/06 for the highest number of points won in a Football league season.

2 – The number of points per game City win when their opponents score first. By coincidence their closest competitors in this category are Huddersfield Town who’ve managed just 1.11 points per game. Last season Leicester achieved just 0.34 points per game when they conceded first.

4 – The number of games Matty Fryatt went without scoring. It was his longest dry spell of the season.

35 – Ever-present Andy King has now made 35 starts this season, a fantastic achievement for the 20 year old who, like Fryatt, has shaken off many early season critics.

Match Preview: Huddersfield Town

How soon is too soon to speak in terms of inevitability? City’s win at Yeovil on Monday night means they now require just eight more victories to essentially tie up promotion. The bookies clearly think this is over. Both bet365 and Paddy Power will offer just 1/14 on City returning straight back to the Championship (Sky Bet offer the best value at 1/7).

Of course, whilst it’s all well and good for the fans to ponder life in the Championship, players need to keep their heads. The most pressing concern of some fans is what, if anything, will be scribbled on the front of the shirts next season. Professionals can afford no such luxury, and achieving a eighth consecutive home league victory is likely to be anything but routine.

Key Stats
Leicester made hard work of seeing off Huddersfield at the Galpharm Stadium in October. Following that fixture City went on their worst run of the campaign so far, four league games without a win.

Recent changes at Huddersfield have worked quickly. Since the departure of Stan Ternent a run of five wins and just one defeat in eight matches has seen Huddersfield lift themselves from 14th to 8th in the table.

But still, a Huddersfield Town match, as City fans should know already, is never over until it’s over. Huddersfield have come back to win from losing positions on three occasions this season. Frustratingly for the Terriers they’ve dropped a staggering 17 points from winning positions this term. This sort of topsy-turvy football has ensured Lee Clark’s side have remained consistently inconsistent. Their current run of four matches unbeaten equals the longest stretch of form (good or bad) this season.

Leicester are looking to take another step towards beating Peterborough United’s 16 match unbeaten run earlier in the campaign. Avoid defeat and City will have gone 13 league games without a loss.

On This Day
Paul Wotton’s free kick sealed a 1-0 victory for Plymouth Argyle and left Leicester deep in relegation trouble on this day in 2006. The match was being replayed after a waterlogged pitch had forced the original fixture to be abandoned. To the surprise on no-one City manager Craig Levein was sacked a day later and Rob Kelly took temporary, then permanent charge.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 7/10 (BlueSq)
Draw – 13/5 (Paddy Power)
Huddersfield – 11/2 (Sky Bet)

Match Preview: Yeovil Town

Whilst recognising the historic achievements of Matty Fryatt many Leicester fans have hailed Aleksander Tunchev as City’s player of the season so far. His loss for the remainder of the season is an enormous blow, the only consolation to be found from the injury is that it happened within the transfer window. It will surely not have escaped Nigel Pearson’s attention that Leicester have yet to keep a clean sheet in League One this season without Tunchev in the side.

This is Leicester’s first televised game of the season. The home fixture against Oldham in February is likely to be the last. Leicester’s record on Sky Sports last year was P7 W1 D5 L1 F3 A3 Pts8.

Key Stats
As usual, the numbers point strongly in City’s favour. Yeovil have won just two games at home this season, and have just one victory in their last seven league games. Whilst Leicester fans chuckled at the indignity of each of Hereford’s fiver goals against Oldham, Yeovil fans must have shuddered. With the Bulls and Crewe involved in mini revivals this is no time to slip into relegation form.

As with many sides at the bottom of the table goals have been a frequent problem for the Glovers. Danny Schofield is Yeovil’s top scorer with just four. This being said, Yeovil are currently on their longest streak of scoring in consecutive matches, it’s six games since they failed to score. But Leicester are on a scoring streak themselves. It’s 13 matches since Northampton Town kept a clean sheet at the Walkers Stadium.

On This Day
City hosted Arsenal in an FA Cup Fourth Round Replay on this day in 2000. This was the game that led Ian Ridley to label Leicester ‘Boring’ (he had a point) and for Arsene Wenger to remark that Leicester played for penalties (not so much). Just 15,235 were present to watch City triumph 6-5 from the spot.

Selected Odds
Yeovil – 4/1 (Victor Chandler)
Draw – 5/2 (Bet365)
Leicester – 5/6 (totesport)

Ask Foxblogger

In the right hand column you’ll find “Ask Foxblogger”, where you can ask questions about Leicester City statistics.

During the week this email arrived in my inbox;

“Hi Mike

Have regularly checked your site since my son pointed it out to me and have enjoyed the comments and detail.

I do have a couple of questions that you may be able to answer.

The first you have already come close to answering recently. I would be interested in our red cards since the glorious M O'N left. We have not had any yet this season. I wonder how many we had in previous seasons and how they cost us in points. Despite Paul Dickov and sometimes Max going close I wonder if Nigel has been quite forceful about this.

I am also curious about Nigel's playing record against us. Did he play in the League Cup Final for Middlesboro and have I read that he played way back in the 3 goalkeepers match for Shrewsbury?

up the city
Tony Asher”

Thanks for the email Tony. I’ll deal with these points in reverse.

Nigel Pearson was on the books at Shrewsbury when that incredible FA Cup Quarter Final was played in the 1981/82 season, but he didn’t make his debut for the club until the start of the 1982/83 campaign. However, Pearson did play for Middlesborough in both the 1997 Coca-Cola Cup Final and the replay alongside the long forgotten Gianluca Festa.

Moving on to discipline, I’m glad you’ve raised the historical question which was something I’ve been meaning to investigate for a while. As noted in the Midseason Fact Check, Nigel Pearson clearly seems to have clamped down on indiscipline in the Foxes. Leicester are committing fewer fouls per game, receiving fewer yellow cards and have yet to have a player dismissed or concede a penalty this season.

When you look back over the last nine seasons, most of them see City with an average disciplinary record. The tenures that really stick our are those of Micky Adams and Craig Levein. Under Adams and Levein, City claimed the following unwanted records;

2002/03 – Most yellow cards (96), Most red cards* (7)
2004/05 – Most fouls (744), Most red cards* (8)
2005/06 – Most fouls (697)

*Joint

Compare those numbers with this season and Leicester’s 274 infringements mean they are on course to commit some 250 less fouls than in 2004/05. Now its not really fair to calculate what that means in points game by game, football just doesn’t work like that. But what these numbers do show is that City are no longer a nasty side.

During the Yeovil match count the number of times unnecessary free kicks are given away. It simply isn’t a common feature of City’s play any more and Nigel Pearson deserves enormous credit for that.

Match Preview: Crystal Palace

Leicester’s initial allocation of 500 tickets for this fixture has yet to sell out and given the dreadful first encounter you can forgive City fans the awkward trip to Selhurst Park. The Eagles had the luxury of the weekend off after their trip to Plymouth was called off at the weekend.

Below is City’s record in cup replays through the last decade. You can draw your own conclusions or congratulate yourself on how many of these games you remember.

2006/07
3rd Round
Fulham (A) – L 3-4

2004/05
3rd Round
Blackpool (A) – W 1-0

2003/04
3rd Round
Manchester City (H) – L 1-3

1999/00
3rd Round
Hereford (H) – W 2-1 (AET)

4th Round
Arsenal (H) – D 0-0 (Won 6-5 on penalties)

Match Review: Leicester City 3-0 Leyton Orient

This was no challenge at all. City brushed aside the O’s to move (temporarily at least) five points clear at the top of League One and one step closer to promotion. Nine more wins should see City back in the Championship. The countdown continues…

Here are some numbers...

3 – The Foxes defence restricted the Orient to just three efforts on goal, the fewest any side have managed for 11 games. With just three goals conceded in six games City are back to imperious defensive form with which they began the season.

3 – The number of games Matty Fryatt has gone without a goal. Amazingly this equals his longest dry spell of the season. Previously Fryatt had gone three league games without strikes against Oldham, Walsall and Northampton. He followed the drought with four goals in two games; Yeovil beware.

61% - It wasn’t quite the staggering 73% of the ball Arsenal managed at home to Bolton on Saturday, but for the eighth game in nine City held more of the ball than their opponents. Only MK Dons on the opening day have taken a greater share of possession at the Walkers Stadium this season.

Match Preview: Leyton Orient

In the last four seasons the average points total of League One’s champions is 86.25. Having taken 51 points in 2008, City are well ahead of schedule. Automatic promotion usually requires around 81 points so, statistically, City need another 10 wins from their remaining 23 matches to ensure a return to the Championship. It’s no wonder you can only get 2/9 these days on City to go straight back up. The first opportunity to cut this 10 win target to 9 arrives in the shape of Leyton Orient who just before the New Year slipped into the bottom four for the first time since November.

Key Stats
It would not be fair to say Leicester and Leyton Orient’s campaigns have diverged after City snatched a late win at Brisbane Road (the two sides didn’t exactly mix in the same circles anyway) but Orient’s steady start to 08/09 has gone from bad to worse. The O’s have won just three games in the last 17 and arrive at the Walkers Stadium on the back of five matches without a victory.

Orient have the worst home record in League One and perhaps unsurprisingly have taken more points on their travels. That said, when this record is a rather uninspiring 13 points from 12 games you can hardly expect Nigel Pearson to be having too many sleepless nights over this fixture.

Only Hereford United (17) have scored fewer goals than Orient (18) in League One. Top scorer Adam Boyd (7) has only netted once in the last six games.

Leicester continue to set the standard in League One. The Foxes are undefeated in 10 league matches and have won their last six straight in front of their own fans. Season ticket holders are without doubt getting value for money this year.

City fans looking for a value bet should head for an old favourite. Leicester/Leicester as a double result looks better value than the home win when you consider Orient have conceded 26 goals in the first half this season, but only 12 in the second.

On This Day
Gary Parker’s second half penalty looked to have given the Foxes all three points at Villa Park on this day in 1998. Julian Joachim had other ideas and his 87th minutes equaliser ensured the spoils were shared. Nine of the 20 sides in the Premier League table that day no longer ply their trade in the English football’s top tier.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 2/5 (Boylesports)
Draw – 7/2 (Bet365)
Leyton Orient – 8/1 (Bet365)

Match Review: Leicester City 0-0 Crystal Palace

There are some games that don’t deserve to remain goalless – this wasn’t one of them. In a first half devoid of skill the best first touch came not from the players but a ball boy. The applause and ironic chants of “Sign him up!” summed up one of the worst 45 minutes of football at the Walkers Stadium. Things improved somewhat in the second half, though not enough that the prospect of doing it all again on Tuesday week is a mouth-watering proposition.

Here are some numbers...

13 – The Foxes have not lost at home since Millwall turned over Nigel Pearson’s side in September. Not even the Manager of the Month curse could shake this rather impressive record of 13 home league and cup matches without defeat for City.

12 – Max Gradel hadn’t started a game for Leicester since the home win over Bristol Rovers a dozen games ago. After a lightning start to the season Gradel has clearly fallen out of favour with Nigel Pearson, and despite forcing a late save from Speroni he still appeared out of sorts. Despite his limited starting opportunities (11 starts, 7 substitute appearances) Gradel still has the second most assists at the club this season. The Ivorian winger has five so this term, Steve Howard has six.

8.00 – According the BBC’s Player Rater Steve Howard was yesterday’s Man of the Match. That said the former Derby man did miss the best chance of the match. In the Midseason Fact Check I noted Matty Fryatt needs fives chances for every goal he scores. Howard’s strike rate in League One is 6.78%, or roughly one goal for every 15 attempts.

Program Note: If you'd like to hear me discussing the match with Rob Henton on Foxpodder you can do so here.

Midseason Fact Check

We’re exactly halfway through the season and Leicester fans couldn’t really have asked for any more heading into 2009. This is Leicester City’s best start to a season since the introduction of three points for a win. City are two points clear at the top of League One, seven points clear of third placed Millwall and have a 14 point cushion on play-off chasers Stockport in seventh.

Some statistics speak for themselves, the Foxes have suffered the fewest defeats (2), conceded the fewest goals (19) and, along with Oldham and Millwall, have kept the most clean sheets (9). Leicester have the best home record in League One, including a mightily impressive nine home wins. For the first time in six seasons, the Walkers Stadium is a fortress.

Leicester’s winning streak of five games this season is something the club have not matched since the promotion campaign on 2002/03, but still short of the club record 7 wins last achieved in 1993. The club’s current run of 10 league games unbeaten is the longest active sequence in the League One, but Nigel Pearson’s men will have to stay undefeated until mid-February to beat Peterborough United’s record of 16 games without a loss.

The numbers above tell us Leicester are doing well, to find out why, we have to dig a little deeper.

One of the most striking contrasts between this season and last has been the consistent starters in the Leicester line-up. Last season only defenders in the form of Richard Stearman, Patrick Kisnorbo and Gareth McAuley started 75% or more league games. This term is has been the forward players who have first on the team sheet. Matty Fryatt, Lloyd Dyer and Andy King have been ever-present, whilst Steve Howard and Matt Oakley have joined them over 75% of the time. The only defensive player to make this mark is the impressive Aleksander Tunchev.

And whilst defensively Leicester appear solid, it’s clear that tinkering has the power to unsettle. In October, a month in which Leicester picked up just six points from five games, the back four was changed for every single match.

Last season Leicester used a staggering 41 players, the most in the Championship. This season City have used 26 players, average amongst sides in the division. Martin Allen’s Cheltenham have already used 37 players this year, and have featured in the bottom four since October. Go figure.

A significant change for the better this season has been City’s ability to play to the form book. This season, unlike any other in recent memory, Leicester have been ruthless is putting away teams when expected. Leicester have taken a mightily impressive 29 points of a possible 36 against teams in the bottom half of League One. Only MK Dons (31 points) can better this record.

Equally, the Foxes have been impressive against their rivals, in a league table comprising the top six, Leicester lie second with 10 points from 15. Oldham have proven strongest against their top six rivals with 11 points from 15, but lie fifth in League One instead of top because they’ve only managed 19 points against teams in the bottom half. Surprisingly, both MK Dons and Millwall have taken just three points against sides in the top six, a factor that could prove telling during promotion six-pointers in March, April and May.

Another area of dramatic improvement has been in front of goal. Matty Fryatt’s 18 goals have made him Leicester’s most prolific striker since Derek Dougan. As well as being the division’s joint top scorer, Fryatt has taken the most shots in League One. The Fryarstarter makes the keeper work with two thirds of his attempts, but Fryatt’s strike rate is just 19.56% - he literally needs five chances for every goal he scores. As a result, whilst there is no doubt Fryatt has excelled in League One, whether he can cut it in the Championship remains an open question.

Discipline is another factor which Nigel Pearson seems to have installed in his side. Leicester have the 4th best disciplinary record in League One, this despite having the division’s most penalised player. Steve Howard has been responsible for 68 of the 261 fouls called against Leicester this season, more than one in four City infringements. More pleasingly, Leicester are one of only two sides in League One yet to have a player dismissed. They’re also yet to concede a penalty, only City and Colchester can claim that this season.

Perhaps the only really bad news in statistical form comes off the pitch. Leicester’s average attendance this season is down nearly 4,000, from 23,508 to 19,572. If we conservatively guestimate the number of concessions and suggest an average ticket price of £15, that will equate to a loss of revenue over the season of £1.38m. It’s just one figure to show how desperately Leicester need to return to the Championship at the first attempt. Fortunately, if the numbers play out as they have so far, City are in good shape to do just that.

Program Note: I'll be on Foxpodder tomorrow after the Crystal Palace game to discuss the season so far. To listen to the show and to subscribe, click here.