How Important Is August?

Pre-season is well under way and at least Leicester seem to be finding the net easily enough. 20 goals in five games, no-matter the opposition, is a pretty impressive tally. It will no doubt be endowing the players with a sense of confidence so desperately needed at the Walkers Stadium.

As with so many aspects of life, confidence in football is key. Over the last few decades Leicester City’s seasons seem to have been shaped by early season momentum. Good early form leads to a strong campaign whilst bad opening results leave the club at best in mid-table.

The numbers here are pretty overwhelming. In the last four seasons, City have taken the following percentages of available points in August;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
2004/05	28%	68%
2005/06	33%	77%
2006/07	47%	64%
2007/08	44%	59%

Compare those percentages to seasons in which the Foxes achieved league success;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
1993/94	67%	65%
1995/96	58%	60%
2002/03	72%	71%

In each of the seasons where City took over half the available points in August, they achieved promotion. When they’ve failed to take over 50%, mid-table mediocrity or worse awaited them. We can also see from those figures the percentage of points won by the league champions in each season. When City start in good form, they stay in good form.

Dig deeper into the statistics and it appears this need for early impetus is not shared by other clubs. In fact, quite the opposite is true. In League One it has been the early season no hopers who have gone on to reach the promised land of the Championship. In the last three seasons, not a single club promoted from League One took more than half the points available in August. Here are the numbers season by season;

Season 2005/06	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Southend Utd	44%	12th	1st
Colchester Utd	28%	22nd	2nd
Barnsley	39%	15th	5th (Pl)

Season 2006/07	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Scunthorpe Utd	20%	24th	1st
Bristol City	40%	14th	2nd
Blackpool	27%	19th	3rd (Pl)

Season 2007/08	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Swansea	44%	10th	1st
Nottingham Forest	22%	18th	2nd
Doncaster Rovers	11%	20th	3rd (Pl)

There are many possible reasons for these figures but the undeniable fact is clear: Leicester depend more on their early season form than many other clubs. Marathon though the season may be, City need to start like sprinters.

This even goes down to the opening day. Since the 2-0 victory over Watford in the first league game at the Walkers Stadium in 2002 the club hasn’t managed an opening day success. Again, this was a component of each of Leicester’s last three promotions.

There’s no doubt Nigel Pearson more than many other League One managers will be praying for early victories. It will settle the fans and the squad immensely, particularly as the former group is still unsure of the manager’s credentials. Pearson doesn’t need four wins from four in August but he does need at least seven points.

In short, August is important, very important.

Goals For, Goals Against

Amid the speculation of the return of Paul Dickov to Leicester City, the attention of the blog this week turns to goals. Fans were well within their rights to quaff remarks involving barn doors and banjos with regard to the Foxes’ derisory goals for tally last season. City were woeful in front of goal; no team in the Championship scored less.

What has continued to baffle City fans during the early Person era is the lack of attention to this side of City’s game. The only striker to make it into double figures last season, Ian Hume, has left for Barnsley and we’re yet to see a single replacement. Steve Howard, DJ Campbell and Barry Hales all disappointed last term, yet currently the responsibility of scoring the majority of Leicester’s goals next season lies with them.

Yet before negativity seeps into yet another post here is a reason to hope: teams promoted in second place from League One have not historically scored many goals. In each of the last three seasons the team in the second promotion slot has scored relatively few times and based their promotion on a solid defensive record.

Let’s look at the teams who have finished 2nd in the last three years. In 05/06 Colchester United were promoted having scored just 58 times (1.26 per game). That season they conceded just 40. In 06/07 Bristol City scored 63 (1.37 per game) and conceded only 39. Last season, Nottingham Forest scored 64 (1.39 per game), but conceded only 32. Each of these sides conceded fewer goals than the play-off contenders below them.

To put it another way, in 05/06 Colchester were the 11th most prolific scorers in League One but had the best defensive record. In 06/07 Bristol City were only the 8th highest scorers but had the second best defence. Nottingham Forest were the 5th most potent attacking force in the division, but crucially conceded six goals fewer than anyone else.

The lesson: keep it tight.

In buying up defenders like Morrison and Tunchev, Nigel Pearson might not be acting quite as strangely as might first appear.

Yet there is still a case for Dickov to be made. Firstly, it would be foolish, not to mention incredibly dull, to rely on City’s defence. Second, Dickov’s first full season at Leicester was the most successful of his career. 17 league strikes ensured he was the club’s top scorer with 23% of the team’s goals that year. Even at 35, he has energy levels that would surely shame the likes of Steve Howard into playing with renewed effort. Dickov is a fans favourite, unafraid of getting stuck in and chasing every lost cause. He is a player who makes opportunities instead of waiting for them. Dickov, in short, is just the sort of player Leicester will need in League One. Every effort should be made to bring him back to the Walkers Stadium.

Do signings equal success?

Nigel Pearson has only been in the Leicester job for three weeks, but already he’s following the well trodden path of recent City managers, he’s signing players, lots of players. Three joined the club this week, Bulgarian international Aleksander Tunchev is likely to make it four and the manager has refused to say how many more are likely to follow him.

The number of signings a manager makes is an interesting issue, so I’ve gone back over the last 16 seasons and totalled up the number signings and departures to see if there is some sort of critical mass which results in success or failure. The results do not look good if Pearson intends to sign players at anything like his current rate.

On average, during the summers of 1992-2002 Leicester purchased three players before the start of each campaign. The highest number came in 2000, the start of Peter Taylor’s reign, when the club made 5 additions. The lowest was the summer of 1998 when Martin O’Neil added a miserly one player to his squad. This steady pattern generally matches City’s rise, particularly in the O’Neil years. The one exception to this was the 1996/7 season when eight were added to the squad midseason. This resulted in a run of 9 games without a win with City only securing their Premiership place with one game to spare. The lesson: a settled team is a successful team.

Following City’s promotion back to the Premiership in 2003, the pattern changes dramatically. 12 players were brought in during that summer, with a further 5 added during the season. For the first time in the club’s history, an entirely new team of players had been brought in during a single campaign. The result: disaster. Only three players started 75% or more of City’s games that season; Ian Walker, Muzzy Izzet and James Scowcroft. Lacking a spine, the team suffered relegation with a pathetic inevitability.

But the lesson had not been learned. In the summer following relegation City shipped out a staggering 21 players, replacing them with 11 new summer signings and a further six midseason. This time just one player, David Connolly, started 75% or more games. The 2005/06 pre-season saw a further 8 new faces and 12 exits but at least the club seemed to be moving towards stability. That season Joey Gudjonnson, Nils-Eric Johansson, Patrick Kisnorbo, Alan Maybury and Patrick McCarthy reached the 75% mark.

Skipping ahead to the 2007/08 season and you should know what’s coming. There were 11 summer signings and four midseason but what was really incredible about 2007/09 was the number of loan signings made. No less than 12 players joined the Foxes on loan last season. To put it in perspective, Leicester had made more loan signings in one season than the club had made in 12 years between 1992 and 2004. Last season three players reached 75% starts; Patrick Kisnorbo, Gareth McAuley and Richard Stearman. This probably goes some way to explaining just why City’s defensive record was so good, yet its scoring record so poor.

Clearly, what we can learn from this is that no club can hope to achieve success with the rates of player turnover evidenced in the last few seasons. If Nigel Pearson hopes to dig Leicester City out of League One, he’ll pick stability over signings.