The Month in Stats: October

Leicester fans have had plenty to smile about this month. City ended October in their highest league position since relegation from the Premier League in 2002/03, flirted with an international superstar and in the style of all good sides, won games which perhaps they ought not to.

The month began with Nigel Pearson naming his first unchanged side of the season for the trip to Coventry. He subsequently changed his first eleven for every proceeding fixture. Perhaps poetically, Pearson’s unchanged Foxes’ headed back down the M69 with an unchanged result, their fourth draw in five visits to the Sky Blues. But that wasn’t to say there were no surprises. DJ Campbell made his first Leicester appearance since 25th November 2008, a gap of 315 days. He still awaits his first Leicester goal since 16th February 2008.

The home match with Derby brought City another chance to overturn a poor run of recent results against a local rival, but City were unable to break down the Rams who came for and got their point from the Walkers. The last City side to beat Derby lined up as; Walker, Makin, Dabizas, Keown, Wilcox, Scowcroft, Nalis, Williams, Stewart, Connolly, Blake.

Two draws was hardly an ideal start to the month but City soon got the back to winning ways at home to Crystal Palace. It took Paul Gallagher 547 minutes to bag his first Leicester City goal, but the home faithful only had to wait another 22 minutes from his spectacular second. Gallagher’s brace (the fourth of his career) didn’t pave the way for a first career hat-trick but it was enough to put City right in the mix as the Championship’s top nine sides found themselves separated by just three points.

The dismissal of Gareth Southgate from Middlesborough had to bookies pricing Nigel Pearson between 10/1 and 14/1 to be his replacement. Thankfully for City fans any concern was short-lived as Steve Gibson made his preference from Gordon Strachan abundantly clear.

City’s best moments of October came live on Sky Sports, first with a fortunate victory over Reading and followed by a well deserved win at Loftus Road. At Reading, City kept their third consecutive clean sheet, a feat they hadn’t managed since January 2008. Martyn Waghorn celebrated his first ever Leicester City start with a first-half winner, but strike partner Fryatt extended his longest spell without a goal under Nigel Pearson to six games. Thankfully City’s top scorer put this right at QPR with his ninth brace in a Leicester shirt.

Once again, it is City’s defence who deserve praise for Leicester’s excellent form. The Foxes kept three clean sheets in five games and conceded just two goals all month. They also restricted free-scoring QPR to the fewest attempts on goal they have managed in a home game all season.

But it’s also strength and mental toughness that has put City in such an excellent position. Twice the Foxes conceded the first goal this month but took four points from those games. It’s also over a year since Nigel Pearson’s side took the lead in a league game and lost.

Pearson has created a side that will not accept defeat – in the Championship that’s the battle half won.

Shooting Practice

It’s what we should have expected. After four games Leicester’s goals against tally is far more impressive than their goals for total. Before the weekend’s matches Leicester’s two conceded made theirs one of the meanest defences in the Championship, in contrast the Foxes’ four strikes in the opposition net were nothing to write home about.

Matty Fryatt’s two goals have already equalled his Championship total for the 2007/08 season, but in typical Fryatt style it’s taken him 14 attempts to get them. His ratio of one goal to every 7 attempts is the sort of statistic that makes last weeks’ transfer speculation laughable.

You could argue only two players in the Championship have worked the goalkeeper more than Fryatt, who has hit the target on 10 occasions. But this just leads you to ask why, if Fryatt is in positions to work the goalkeeper, aren’t more of his efforts finding their way to the back of the net?

Leicester are at least creating chances at this level. Before this weekend’s games City had managed 54 efforts on goal in four matches, only QPR, Ipswich, West Brom, Bristol City and Crystal Palace bettered that. And compared with their Championship rivals, City have been more accurate than most too. 31 shots on target have been struck by Nigel Pearson’s men, that’s 57.41% of their attempts. Last season the Foxes got 54.28% of their shots on target.

But working the goalkeeper and beating him are two very different things. City will make life much easier for themselves if they can prove more ruthless in front of goal.

However it is possible to mount a promotion challenge without a prolific strike force. Last season Birmingham were promoted having netted just 54 times, the fewest goals for total of any side ever promoted to the Premier League. In contrast during 2008/09 Norwich City scored 57. The difference, of course, was a defence that conceded just 37 compared with one that shipped 70.

If City start a push for promotion, there’s little doubt it will follow the Birmingham blueprint.

Newcastle Utd

The Magpie’s Shola Ameobi has made a terrific start to the campaign scoring twice as many league goals as Leicester’s Fryatt with two fewer attempts (11 against 13). But with Newcastle’s injury worries piling up this might be an opportunity for Leicester to snatch a cheeky three points for the first time at St. James’ Park since 2000. Tony Cottee and Robbie Savage were Leicester’s scorers that day in the twilight hours of the Martin O’Neil era.

Yet, having not conceded since the opening day of the season, Newcastle have proven they are just as difficult to break down as Nigel Pearson’s back four. The goalless draw is priced at 17/2 and any sensible money should placed here.

On This Day – 31st August 1994

Leicester City picked up their first ever Premiership point at home to QPR. The Foxes had lost their opening three matches of the season, scoring once and conceding seven times, and looked to be on the way to another defeat after Jimmy Willis put the ball into his own net. Thankfully for the crowd of 18,695 at Filbert Street a last minute strike from Phil Gee saved City, but they would have to wait until September for their first Premiership win.

100%

Let’s forget about the opening 45 minutes on Saturday and focus on everything that happened after that, it’s been pretty spot on. Leicester have begun in a manner you would hope will hold them in good stead for the rest of the season. They’ve already repeated their oft-performed trick from League One of coming from behind, and professionally dispatched modest opposition in the cup. So far, so good.

The Week That Was

Martin Waghorn became the first Leicester player to score on his debut since Les Ferdinand put one past Southampton in the opening game of Leicester’s last Premier League campaign. In the six intervening years both Matty Fryatt and Steve Howard have scored on their home debuts, but neither became an instant hero.

Chris Powell started his 32nd League Cup tie in what his now his 22nd season in professional football. By contrast his colleagues in the back four o Tuesday night had amassed just 5 League Cup starts between them. City’s back line wasn’t heavily tested at Moss Rose but did earn their first clean sheet of the season. Nigel Pearson’s men managed 19 shutouts in the league and 24 in all competitions in 2008/09.

Ipswich Town

Leicester face two sides who would have expected better from their opening matches this week. First City head to Portman Road, a ground where they’ve won just once in their last 13 league visits. Roy Keane’s men, one of only four sides to lose on the opening weekend, found themselves needing penalties to dispose of Shrewsbury this week. Paint will be peeling from the Ipswich dressing room walls if they fail to perform on Saturday.

Ipswich season ticket holders must have felt cheated by their side last season. Having finished 2007/08 with the best home record in the Championship, the Tractor Boys could only manage the 15th highest ranking in 2008/09. Crucially, Ipswich beat only one of the eight sides who finished above them last season at Portman Road. Not exactly a fortress to be feared.

Sheffield United

City don’t have a great record at Bramall Lane, a 3-1 victory in 1995 has been the Foxes’ only success here in 30 years. But if Port Vale can win here then who knows?

Some people dismiss early season results as meaningless - Sheffield United fans do not. On the opening day last season the Blades travelled to Birmingham City and lost thanks to a 90th minute strike from Kevin Phillips. The difference between the two sides at the end of the season was, you guessed it, three points. Had Kevin Blackwell’s defence kept a clean sheet that day it would have been the Blades opening the season at Old Trafford thanks to their superior goal difference.

Sheffield United haven’t lost a home league game since the Steel City Derby in February, in only one of the matches following that defeat did they fail to score. United’s defensive record is also solid, the second best in the Championship last year. City will need a strong performance to take points away from the divisions 4th favourites.

On This Day - 15th August

Martin O’Neill’s side stunned the Premier League on the opening day of the 1998/99 season by taking a two-goal lead at Old Trafford. Emile Heskey and Tony Cottee silenced the Stretford End only for a deflected Teddy Sheringham effort and a stoppage time David Beckham special to deny Leicester victory.

The Week Ahead

The first game of the season brings about the same old clichés; the nerves, the optimism, the new signings trying to make the best first impression, the managers pretending not to pay attention to the great sack race, the list goes on and on.

But what does the first game of the season mean? Well, if you’re a Leicester fan it should mean a lot…

1993/94 – Leicester City 2-1 Peterborough Utd (Promoted)
1994/95 – Leicester City 1-3 Newcastle Utd (Relegated)
1995/96 – Sunderland 1-2 Leicester City (Promoted)
1996/97 – Sunderland 0-0 Leicester City
1997/98 – Leicester City 1-0 Aston Villa
1998/99 – Manchester Utd 2-2 Leicester City
1999/00 – Arsenal 2-1 Leicester City
2000/01 – Leicester City 0-0 Aston Villa
2001/02 – Leicester City 0-5 Bolton Wanderers (Relegated)
2002/03 – Leicester City 2-0 Watford (Promoted)
2003/04 – Leicester City 2-2 Southampton (Relegated)
2004/05 – Leicester City 0-0 Wet Ham
2005/06 – Sheffield Utd 4-1 Leicester City
2006/07 – Luton Town 2-0 Leicester City
2007/08 – Leicester City 0-1 Blackpool (Relegated)
2008/09 – Leicester City 2-0 MK Dons (Promoted)

At the start of last season I made the point that Leicester City’s start to the season has always had a big impact on the rest of the campaign. But looking at those scorelines you can make the case even simpler. In each season that Leicester have competed outside the Premier League since 1993/94 and won on the opening day they have gone on to win promotion. Just saying…

Swansea City

On the face of it, Swansea could be heading for a tough second season in the Championship. The loss of manager Roberto Martinez to Wigan is a huge blow, as is the Jason Scotland sized hole in the Swans strike force. Jordi Gomez has also followed Matinez to Lancashire, leaving Swansea without strikers who between them accounted for 33 of their 63 league goals. Stephen Dobbie has been drafted in from Queen of the South, but he remains unproven at this level. 47 goals in 74 starts for The Doonhamers is one thing, 20 goals in the Championship is quite another.

Meanwhile manager Paulo Sousa hardly set the Championship on fire with his short spell at QPR last season. That being said, we might find out if he truly is a capable boss this season if rumours of boardroom sting pulling at Loftus Road are true.

Swansea’s 2008/09 season was remarkable for a club record eight consecutive draws, the start of a 13 match undefeated sequence which proved if nothing else that the Swans are difficult to break down. Don’t expect a goal festival.

Macclesfield Town

Leicester haven’t failed to progress to the second round of the League Cup since 1979. Rotherham, conquerors of City in the JPT last season, were the undoing of the Foxes that season. You’ll get pretty long odds on the Silkmen stopping Nigel Pearson’s men. Amazingly Macclesfield’s biggest ever League win is just 3-0.

On This Day – 8th August

City’s miserable start to the 2006/07 campaign continued with a 1-0 home defeat to Burnley. Andy Gray’s header from seven yards was enough to preserve Burnley’s perfect start and continue Leicester’s pointless one. It is the only competitive game Leicester have ever played on the 8th August.

Season Preview

“So why couldn’t Leicester get a sponsor this season?” a friend asked. At least, that’s what I think he said. What I heard was “Couldn’t get a sponsor eh? Blimey, your lot really are a bunch of talentless chumps these days.” It felt like an accusation, a symbol of Leicester’s demise since the glory days of O’Neil, Heskey, Izzet and Elliot.

Last season when the Foxes’ website offered a choice of three slogans to be emblazoned on the front of Leicester’s new kit, we pondered for maybe a second or two and opted for the fourth and least controversial option; keep it blank.

The blank shirt is somewhat befitting of the new management style at the Walkers Stadium; plain, unassuming, unimpressed by prima donnas or fancy Dans. Nigel Pearson, who will quickly become Sir Nigel if he manages the Foxes to successive promotions, said he was pleased with promotion but in a tone which made you doubt he’s every really been satisfied by anything in life. What is clear is that Pearson’s character is exactly what City needed. He’s installed a backbone in the side that neither Martin ‘Mr Angry’ Allen or Ian ‘Happier than a badger in mating season’ Holloway ever managed.

What’s also different this season is that City start 2009/10 with a sense of optimism and stargazing not seen at the club in over a decade. True, Leicester fans don’t have any stars to gaze upon yet, but the Premiership seems a more realistic prospect than another plummet. Last season was the first time since 2002/03 that the Foxes won more games than they lost.

If it transpires Leicester won’t in fact be challenging for the play-offs or, dare I say it, automatic promotion, then there are many other scores which still need settling. For the first time in five seasons the East Midlands has its three major clubs in the same division and bragging rights are on the line. The only crumb of comfort in 2007/08 for Leicester fans in an otherwise dismal season was watching Derby County’s pathetic displays in the Premier League. Leicester may have been poor that year, but the sheep were record-breakingly dreadful. Meanwhile Forest, having clambered out of League One at the third attempt, are well overdue a kicking.

But there are reasons to be worried. With no new strikers on the books goalscoring responsibilities could fall on the unproven shoulders of Matty Fryatt. The 23 year-old might have managed 27 league strikes last term, be he only netted nine of them after Christmas. Alex Fergusson used to complain that Andy Cole needed five chances for every goal he scored. In 2008/09, the Fryastarter needed six.

Time to keep the faith!

Pedigree - Part 4

The new season begins in less than 3 days, excited yet? The final part of the Pedigree series is below.

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Scunthorpe United
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 6th (Promoted)

Foxblogger had the pleasure of watching Scunthorpe at their first Wembley appearance last season. Back in March the JTP Final between the Iron and Luton was called the best domestic game at Wembley since it was rebuilt. That match was quickly eclipsed by the League One play-off final in May and this time it was Scunthorpe who fell on the smiley side of a 3-2 scoreline.

Scunthorpe’s first season in the Championship after a 44-year absence ended in immediate relegation. It’s easy to forget that Nigel Adkins’ side actually started the season quite well, sitting happily in mid-table until November. But by New Years’ Day 2008 the Iron had slipped into the bottom three and never got out. Watching what lessons they have learned from this experience will be interesting.

Sheffield United
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 3rd

Now here’s a side haunted by the past. Absolute certainties don’t come much closer than five minutes in conversation with a Blades fan and the words “West Ham” and “Tevez” cropping up. If Sheffield United fans can finally come to terms with their relegation long enough to focus on the present they’ll see a side more than capable of bringing them back to the Premier League. Maybe once they get there they’ll get more than eight points from their final 11 matches of the season too?

Sheffield United are another of the eight founder members of the Premier League who have since lost their grip on the cash cow they helped to create. It took the Blades 12 long years to get themselves promoted back to the Premier League after their relegation before last but you’d be surprised if they took as long this time.

Sheffield Wednesday
Premier League Experience: 8 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 12th

It’s a measure of how far Sheffield Wednesday fell in the years following their relegation from the Premier League that last season’s 12th place in the Championship was the club’s second best season in the last ten years.

It’s difficult to know how to place Wednesday. In 2009 the club oscillated between 12th and 13th place and no further. What that says about ambitions is anyone’s guess, but Wednesday have tended to be slow starters since their return to the Championship. Two years in League One has taught the club to live within its means, but it’s difficult to picture a Wednesday promotion push on the back of prudence.

Swansea City
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 8th

Swansea fans are used to seeing their team winning. The side hasn’t finished in the bottom half of any table since 2002/03, which considering the Swans have been promoted twice during that period is a very impressive record.

But the departure of Roberto Martinez could lead to a case of second season syndrome. We’ll take a closer look at Swansea in our first weekly preview on Friday.

Watford
Premier League Experience: 2 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 13th

Twice the Hornets have made it to the Premier League, and twice they have been unceremoniously dumped out of the division. Still, when you consider Derby’s last effort you might think that 24 and 28 points aren’t exactly terrible hauls for small teams with tight budgets in the top flight these days. Perhaps Burnley will provide a new benchmark this season?

Following their latest relegation Watford looked odds-on to return straight back, but just one win in their final 14 games of 2007/08 meant the Hornets scraped into the play-offs on goal difference alone. A side truly out of form were duly trounced 6-1 on aggregate by eventual play-off winners Hull.

Watford were the first side Foxblogger ever saw Leicester play. Boxing Day 1993 saw City equalise in the last minute to snatch a 4-4 draw. There really was no hope for me after that.

West Brom
Premier League Experience: 4 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 20th (Relegated)

In only two of the last eight seasons have West Brom remained in the division in which they started. Even those campaigns weren’t dull; one featured a final day escape from relegation in which any three of the bottom four could have gone down, the other featured a play-off final defeat at the hands of Derby County.

Despite all this movement, the Baggies have been keen not to overextend themselves. As a result they find themselves in excellent financial shape, something which can’t exactly be said for other promotion rivals such as their opening day opponents, Newcastle United.

With a goalscorer, West Brom may well prove the biggest threat in the division.

Pedigree - Part 3

With the season just days away Foxblogger will be posting every day this week. Part 3 of the Pedigree series is below. Part 4 will follow tomorrow.

Nottingham Forest
Premier League Experience: 5 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Seasons
Last Season: 19th

Forest were founder members of the Premier League and Sky Sports chose to broadcast the first ever live Premiership match from the City Ground, a 2-2 draw with Liverpool. Whilst Sky’s production values have come along a fair way in the last 17 years, the same cannot be said for Forest’s quality. An excruciating three seasons in League One was followed last year by a painful re-introduction to the Championship – Colin Calderwood’s side managed just two wins in their first 19 matches back in the second tier.

At least this season brings back the prospect of some excellent East-Midlands derbies. Leicester, Derby and Forest have not competed in the same division since 2004/05. For the first season in five bragging rights are most certainly at stake.

Peterborough Utd
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 2nd (Promoted)

This is Posh’s first season in the second tier since 1993/94. Defeated on the opening day by City that season, Peterborough’s season never really got going as they whimpered out of Division One. Further relegation to the fourth tier followed four years later and since then Posh had rarely looked like breaking back into the Championship.

That was until 11 wins in their final 15 games last season put Posh ahead of the faltering MK Dons and as high as they’re been in the league ladder for 17 seasons. There’s really no telling how Peterborough will adjust, but under Darren Ferguson they should at least be difficult to beat at home.

Preston North End
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 9 Seasons
Last Season: 6th

Preston haven’t experienced relegation for 17 seasons and given last season’s push for the play-offs it’s unlikely they will be looking down this season either. As the Championship’s longest serving tenants Preston are due an exit one way or another.

But like Ipswich Town, Preston have suffered at the hands of the play-offs too many times to consider then a viable option for promotion. Four times in the last nine seasons they have reached to top six, only to see Bolton and West Ham pip them to the Premier League in the final.

Queen’s Park Rangers
Premier League Experience: 4 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 11th

Flush with dosh, QPR were the team to back for the title at the start of last season; nevermind.

Still, Rangers did manage a top half finish for the first time in four seasons. Like Leicester, QPR have suffered the ignominy of relegation to the third tier having lost their Premier League status in 1996. And like Nottingham Forrest, it took QPR three years to make their way out of what was then Division Two.

Finding the back of the net will be QPR’s most pressing concern early this season. They failed to score in nine of their last 14 Championship matches last year.

Reading
Premier League Experience: 2 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 4th

Reading fans might argue they ought to have had at least one more season in the Premier League to their name. Back in 1994/95 they nearly completed the same feat Leicester fans are dreaming of this season. Promoted from Division Two a year earlier, Reading scored 58 goals and amassed 79 points in what was their first ever season in the second tier. It was enough to place them second in the table that season. Unfortunately for the Royals it was also the season in which the Premier League shed two teams from its roster. As a result the four sides relegated from the Premier League were to be replaced by just two from Division One. Reading battled to the play-off final but were beaten 4-3 by Bolton after extra time.

Still, when Reading did finally make it to the Premier League they did it in style. The 106 points the club won in 2005/06 is the highest any side has ever achieved in a single season.

Pedigree – Part 2

Foxblogger's look at what the past can teach us about the present continues as we take a gander at Derby County to Newcastle Utd.

Derby County
Premier League Experience: 7 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last season: 18th

Derby County aren’t traditionally seen as a yo-yo side, but their six-year spell in the Premier League from 1996-2002 was the sides’ longest period in any division from the 1980’s onwards. Since 1980 Derby have been promoted or relegated a dozen times. Like Crystal Palace, the Rams seem to put together a reasonably good Championship season together after a rotten one. Under Nigel Clough there’s every chance this could continue.

Doncaster Rovers
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 14th

By one measure the Keepmoat Stadium was the most boring place to watch Championship football last season. Just 34 goals were scored in 23 league matches, a measly 1.5 per game. But to characterise Rovers in this way would be injustice equivalent to Graham Fenton’s £1.1m transfer fee, Doncaster were very entertaining and in the last seven seasons have provided their fans with nothing but joy.

In the same year as City last bulldozed their way back to the Premier League, Doncaster were lifting themselves back into the Football League through the Conference play-offs. Leicester haven’t played Doncaster since 1956, it’ll be the longest historical gap they bridge this season.

Ipswich Town
Premier League Experience: 5 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 7 Seasons
Last Season: 9th

Roy Keane may be the story for every other correspondent, but it’s the play-offs which have defined Ipswich Town’s recent history and left scars deeper than any the Irishman left on his opponents. The Tractor Boys have entered the play-offs on six occasions and won promotion only once.

The rot at Ipswich did seem to be ending under Jim Magilton, but the lack of killer instinct cost the side dear in the push for another play-off heartbreak. If Keane is going to perform his promotion miracles again one would think it will have to be as part of the top two.

Middlesbrough
Premier League Experience: 14 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 19th (Relegated)

An average gate on 28,429 attended Middlesbrough’s home matches last season, over 80% of capacity. It’s a surprising statistic because the overriding impression of the Riverside Stadium last season was one of an empty stadium, apathetic fans and an anaemic strike force. The latter is at least true, Boro’ managed just 28 goals last term.

Comforting to Gareth Southgate’s men should be the knowledge that Middlesbrough’s last two stays in the second tier have been blissfully short, three seasons in total. 1997/98’s return straight back to the Premier League was made all the sweeter as Boro’ edged out Sunderland to automatic promotion by just one point. What would Middlesbrough fans give to see the same fate befall Newcastle?

Newcastle Utd
Premier League Experience: 16 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 18th (Relegated)

Unlike their North-East rivals Middlesbrough, the Magpies were not founder members of the Premier League, but they do enter the Championship with more experience at that level than any other side. Only Manchester United and Arsenal finished higher than Newcastle in 2002/03.

The last time Newcastle found themselves in the second tier they spent four years here and almost relegated themselves again in 1991/92 (a season which included a 5-2 away defeat to Oxford Utd, a 6-2 demolition at the hands of Wolves and a 1-1 home draw with Cambridge Utd). The difference this time around is the Sky cameras will be on hand to delight in every such embarrassment. Newcastle visit Scunthorpe on 20th October…

Next time: Nottingham Forest to Reading

Pedigree – Part 1

With just over seven weeks to go before Leicester City kick off the 2009/10 Championship campaign at home to Swansea, the start of the new season is now closer than the end of the last. Foxblogger is back in pre-season training.

Already early season optimism is taking its hold, with dreams of the play-offs exciting even the most pessimistic Leicester fan. At least 16 Championship sides will consider themselves viable challengers for a place in the play-offs or better on 8th August. But which of the Championship’s 24 sides (15 of them with past Premier League experience, one fewer than last season) really have a shot at promotion, and which are doomed to mid-table mediocrity or worse? What follows is an exercise in past pedigree.

Barnsley
Premier League Experience: 1 Season
Current Spell in Championship: 3 Seasons
Last season: 20th

Had things gone a little differently in the 2000 play-off final Barnsley could have returned to Premier League, as it turned out an own goal from Richard Wright after 6 minutes was the closest they got. Ipswich ran out 4-2 victors that day and Barnsley haven’t looked like making a serious push upwards since their parachute payments ran out. Four seasons in the third tier from 2002-2006 have reshaped the aspirations of the club. Their first target this season will be 50 points.

Blackpool
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 16th

The departure of Simon Grayson to Leeds United midway through 2008/09 looked to have rocked the Seasiders boat by March. A home defeat by Burnley left Blackpool 21st with just two wins in 15 matches. They survived, but like Barnsley their priorities will be to avoid the bottom three.

Bristol City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 10th

Promoted with Blackpool in 2007, Bristol City’s meteoric rise to the play-off final in their first season back in the second tier after eight years in the third took everyone by surprise. 13 home draws last season proved to be the undoing on their promotion challenge, but the Robins will expect to be in play-off contention once again.

Cardiff City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 7th

The Bluebirds have flirted with promotion in the past, but it has so far only proven to be a cruel tease for their long-suffering fans. In 2006/07 Cardiff lead the way until last November, only for a slump of credit crunch proportions to see them ending the season top of only the bottom half of the table. Last season it was even worse. After the 11th game of the season Cardiff dropped out of the play-off positions only twice – once after game 20, and once after game 46. Preston North End, the side who replaced Dave Jones’ team in the play-offs on the final day did so by virtue of having scored one goal more than Cardiff. The score when the two sides met on 18th April with four games to go: Preston 6-0 Cardiff.

Coventry City
Premier League Experience: 9 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 8 Seasons
Last Season: 17th

Some club yo-yo between divisions, Coventry City do not. Coventry City were last promoted to England’s top flight in 1967 and resolutely stayed there for 34 years. When, in 2001, the Sky Blues finally failed to pull off a great escape they took to the Championship like a barnacle to a rock. Coventry survived relegation by just one point in 2007/08, and have managed just one top ten finish since 2001. Nevertheless, they might get their act together one day.

Crystal Palace
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 15th

Crystal Palace are the reason every team 22nd in December still harbours hopes of a late play-off push. The Eagles ridiculous run of 51 points from 24 matches after they had managed just 22 points from their opening 22 games in 2003/04 was mimicked by Doncaster in 2008/09 (40 points from 22 games following 18 points from 24 matches) but is still the stuff of fantasy in the vast majority of cases. Palace seem to follow a mediocre season with a play-off spot in the next. If they don’t look like repeating this trend, Neil Warnock’s time in football could well be up.

Next time: Derby County to Newcastle United

Let The Party Begin

It’s been 29 years, but Leicester City have finally lifted a league trophy. Brilliant.

With 15 teams already confirmed as Championship sides next year Nigel Pearson has already begun to look at how his own Championship outfit will look. Jack Hobbs has been given a contract, and after a shaky start it can hardly be said he doesn’t deserve it. The turning point in Hobbs’ season came at Selhurst Park and the injury to Alexsander Tunchev. Hobbs had often been too reliant on the Bulgarian to bail him out, but took responsibility well with commanding displays like the one he produced at Millwall. Performances like that are to be expected consistently next year.

609 minutes on the pitch have been enough to secure Wayne Brown a deal at City too. Brown made 44 appearances for Hull during 2007/08 and it’s perhaps that Championship experience in a promotion winning team that has encouraged Pearson to make the former Tiger’s move permanent.

Once again, Pearson is showing his priorities. Leicester will enter the Championship, just as they did League One, with one golden rule: don’t concede. Don’t expect anyone to remain on the halfway line at corners for the remainder of this manager’s reign. That said, when you have the best defence in the Championship, who can fault the approach?

Crewe Alexandra

Crewe enter tomorrow’s game needing results to go their way before their match even becomes a factor in the battle to avoid the drop. If Brighton lose and Carlisle fail to win the Railwaymen will have an opportunity to reach safety. But even then they must do something that they have never managed in their 132 year history, beat Leicester City. Leicester’s last four trips to Crewe have all finished level. History is certainly not on Guðjón Þórðarson’s side.

Crewe’s horrible recent form has undone all the good work the ‘Iceman’ had managed since Christmas, lifting Crewe from bottom in late January to 17th in late March. A winless run of nine matches has made Crewe’s survival chances slim at best, in reality their fatal blow came at Stockport on Tuesday. Amazingly, if Crewe had won that game it would be the Hatters facing almost certain relegation thanks to their 10-point deduction. Still when a side goes seven games without a win at home the only respectable response is introspection.

It took a while to find a statistic where Crewe fare better than City, but the Railwaymen have shared the goals better than the Foxes this season. For what it’s worth 20 Crewe players have scored in League One this season compared to Leicester’s 15.

If there is one crumb of comfort for Crewe it lies in Leicester’s record on the final day of the season. Not since the last game at Filbert Street in 2002 have Leicester City won on the last day of the season. Indeed, the Foxes have won only one final day match in the last 11 years. City won’t get many better opportunities to put that little record to bed.

Champions

"Two years ago I wouldn't have said it was feasible to go down. Can we get promoted next season? Why not?"

There’s one thing you can’t fault about Milan Mandaric, his ambition. But the elation/relief (delete as appropriate) of promotion might have some people getting a little ahead of themselves. Not since Manchester City won successive promotions to land themselves back in the Premier league for the 2000/01 season has a side climbed directly from the third tier of English football to the first.

Since the turn of the century just four promoted sides from the third tier have made it to the play-offs, and whilst Bristol City managed this last season they were the first team to extend their season for five years. Over time teams from the third tier have reached the Premier League – Reading, Stoke, Wigan and Hull have all managed it, but in the same space of time 11 of the 24 promoted teams have since been relegated. If Nottingham Forest, Barnsley or Plymouth drop this season it’ll be 12 from 25.

The Championship has a wealth of teams who all see themselves as Premier League material - 18 of the 24 sides in the division this season had spent at least one year in the promised land. So City’s first challenge in The Championship might actually be to achieve something which they did not manage in any season between 2004 and 2008, to win more games than they lose.

Scunthorpe United

When the Foxes last met the Iron top spot was the prize on offer for the winner. Andy King’s late winner was the difference between the sides in November and City never surrendered first place. Scunthorpe, after a great start to the season are now losing their way.

Nigel Adkins’ side were the second best League One team in January, and the second worst in February. They picked up two points per game in March, but have managed just four points from their four games in April. Locked in a battle with Tranmere Rovers for the final play-off spot seemingly destined to go to the final day when the pair meet, the Iron will be desperate for points.

Scunthorpe are free scorers both at home and away, many of them down to the impressive Gary Hooper who has bagged more than a third (24) already this season. But sadly for the Iron their opponents too have found the net often, a total of 60 so far.

This year Scunthorpe have resembled the Laurie Sanchez era Fulham side which powered past teams in the first half and wilted in the second. The Iron’s goal difference in the first half is 21, in the second it is -5. How the Scunny Bunny has wept at leads squandered, culminating in a loss of 28 points from winning positions this season. If City can keep it tight for the first 45 minutes then the sell-out crowd at the Walkers should be able to enjoy a victory to go with the trophy presentation.

All the scenarios

You could say that Leicester City’s 13th corner of the afternoon against Leeds proved lucky for Steve Howard, but in truth the Foxes deserved their win.

Apologies for the shorter than usual post this week, below are all the important facts you need for Southend.

Leicester City will be Champions of a division for the first time in 29 years if;

i) They win at Southend
ii) They draw and both Peterborough United and MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose, Peterborough lose and MK Dons fail to win.

Leicester City will be promoted from League One at the first time of asking if;

i) They win at Roots Hall
ii) They draw and either Peterborough United or MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose and either Peterborough United lose or MK Dons fail to win.

Simple.

The simplest scenario of all is of course the Leicester win. If that happens, nothing else matters. But Southend will be a tough nut to crack at Roots Hall. Had it not been for a terrible run over Christmas and New Year the Shrimpers’ mathematical play-off chances might have been more statistically significant. They have done remarkably well to turn their season around after finding themselves in 17th place in late January.

Southend have been one of the divisions form sides since then, the second best in February and the 3rd best in March to be precise. This success has been built on solid if unspectacular victories. Southend have won just five games by more than one goal this season, by contrast City have won a dozen.

The Shrimpers boast the second best home defensive record in League One with just 18 goals conceded. Peterborough and Leeds have both lost here, but more recently MK Dons and Millwall have won.

Whatever you do, don’t place you money on a draw. Southend haven’t been involved in one for 18 matches and their last home match to finish all square was 16 games ago on the 1st November. Like Hereford last week, Southend are yet to win this season when they have been behind at the break.

So there you have it. That P next to City’ name can’t come soon enough.

Desire

At 14:55 Leicester fans had to ponder a string of unpleasant realities. Not only were they in very real danger of being knocked off top spot for the first time since 22nd November, Millwall could have reduced the gap between City and the play-offs to just four points. But it was Cheltenham Town, the team with the worst away record of any League One side, who’d conceded 46 goals on their travels, whose only away win had come at the side with the division’s worst home record (Leyton Orient), who’d taken just 5 points in the 21 games where their opponents had scored first, who’d lost 6-3 at home to Peterborough United in December, this Cheltenham Town side took a half-time deficit and secured a draw for the first time this season.

Then Yeovil Town, the side with the fewest goals this season, whose top scorer had managed just five league strikes, who’d won just four games against teams in the top half, who could boast the fifth worst home record in League One, who faced a Millwall side that had won their last five away games, this Yeovil Town side scored a goal in each half to win by two clear goals for only the third time this season.

At 14:55 Leicester fans were worried not only about the Championship, but promotion too. Now they have the chance to seal promotion and go a good way towards securing the title before either Peterborough Untied or Millwall play again. Millwall’s defeat means that City need just 6 points from their remaining five fixtures to be sure of Championship football next year (though given the disparity in goal difference, five points would be enough in reality). Peterborough’s failure to beat Martin Allen’s doomed Cheltenham means that Leicester could make to gap between themselves and the Posh seven points. A lead like that with just five games remaining would surely prove insurmountable.

The question is, do City want it enough?

Here’s everything, statistically, you need to know about the weekend ahead.

Hereford United
Hereford are eleven points from safety with just six matches to avoid the drop. If recent form is anything to go by the Bulls have little interest in saving themselves, Hereford have lost eight of their last nine matches, scoring six and conceding 19.

It’s been a miserable campaign with just two weeks out of the bottom four (one of those was the season’s opening weekend). Hereford have been in League One’s basement since 13th September.

But this is not the done deal it might appear. Oldham and Leeds have been high profile causalities at Edgar Street this year, Oldham in particular took a 5-0 pasting in January. The lesson for Leicester is score first, preferably in the first half. Hereford are yet to win a match this season in which their opponents have scored the opening goal and they have yet to win when trailing at the interval. This should be the easier of the weekend’s fixtures, but as Peterborough and Millwall have already demonstrated, nothing is that simple.

Leeds United
There are just four sides in League One who the Foxes haven’t beaten this season. Stockport County, Swindon Town and Brighton & Hove Albion are part of an exclusive group which only Leeds United can now join.

Simon Grayson’s side have hit form at what seems to be just the right time. The Whites are undefeated in ten – a sequence which includes seven victories. It’s a run which has propelled United from eighth to fifth, probably too late for an automatic promotion push, but Leeds in this form will certainly fancy their chances in the play-offs.

To beat Leeds, City will have to overcome two statistical anomalies which are in danger of becoming serious bugbears. As this blog has mentioned time and again, the Foxes are next to useless at early kick-offs. In the last 19 matches played before 15:00 City have won just two and lost a staggering 14.

Adding to this worry is the camera shy nature of Leicester sides at the Walkers Stadium in recent years. City’s last four home matches televised on Sky Sports have seen just one win and one goal for the Foxes. The results since 2007/08;

Cardiff – 0-0
Crystal Palace – 1-0
Plymouth – 0-1
Oldham – 0-0

You can draw your own conclusions, but a few quid on a goalless draw might be the best bet out there.

City will have to overcome some big challenges to secure promotion on Monday, but I told Rob Henton of Foxpodder a month ago that 13th April would be our promotion party (listen here) and I’d dearly love to be right.

EDIT: When writing this post I made the schoolboy error of forgetting to account for MK Dons' game in hand. Leicester City can still be promoted on Monday, but as well as defeating Hereford and Leeds over the weekend City will need to hope Roberto Di Matteo's side fail to win at home to Bristol Rovers. The champagne might be on ice a little longer, but you never know...

Panic

“Are there a hint of nerves kicking in at Leicester?” wrote John Ashdown of the Guardian this week. Leaving aside the terrible grammar, does he have a point? Well there are certainly Leicester fans who, having become accustomed to disappointment in the past five seasons, have surrendered the title in their heads already. A quick glance a Talking Balls will show you what I mean.

But surely there is nothing to worry about. Even if Millwall win five of their last six matches (and Millwall haven’t won five consecutive matches since last September) City will still only need to scrape six points from their final six matches thanks to their vastly superior goal difference.

The more optimistic of you might be interested to know that City are the only side left in the Football League who can reach 100 points for the season. Though to reach this colossal total they will have to win six consecutive matches, something the Foxes haven’t managed in the 15 seasons I’ve been following the club. The best winning streak Leicester have managed this season is five, equalling a run they last managed in 2002/03.

The Week That Was
There was a large Steve Howard shaped hole in the Leicester side which travelled to Peterborough last week. It’s telling that in the three league matches in which Howard has not featured Leicester have failed to keep posession. At home to Colchester, City had 49% of the ball. At Peterborough, the Foxes managed just 43% possession. Most staggeringly at Scunthorpe, Leicester managed just 36%.

Matty Fryatt took the award for League One player of the season this week. The awards ceremony taking place whilst the season is still ongoing was one of the talking points raised by fans, and Fryatt’s Jekyll and Hyde season probably means another more consistent League One striker might have been more deserving. Fryatt scored 23 goals before Christmas but has only managed five in nineteen games since he signed his new contract. The Fryarstarter hasn’t scored in four matches.

Usually this season Leicester have been able to call off matches played on international weekends with Andy King, Aleksander Tunchev and Nicky Adams all representing their countries. It was one of the factors which has allowed King to keep a 100% appearance record this season. The Foxes certainly missed him at London Road.

The Week Ahead
Carlisle Untied provided League One with this season’s false start. The Cambrians took 13 points from the campaign’s opening five matches and looked set to begin anew their quest for promotion. 35 games and just 30 points later Carlisle lie just one point above the relegation zone and, thanks to the form of Crewe and Leyton Orient, its become a real scrap. No team below Huddersfield in 14th is yet realistically safe from the drop, though this blog being what it is, I should point out that only the top seven are mathematically safe from relegation.

Carlisle have managed just 17 goals away from home this season, only Yeovil and the damned Hereford United have managed fewer. Eleven defeats on their twenty road trips this season have made the majority of those long journeys back to Cumbria pretty miserable for the Carlisle faithful.

Without a win in six and with just one victory in their last ten matches Carlisle do not arrive at the Walkers Stadium in any sort of form. Though Leicester as we know are not exactly in great shape either. If the League table was based just on March’s results Nigel Pearson’s side would lie 14th

On This Day
Since beating Aston Villa on this day in 1970 Leicester have failed to win a match on 4th April. Arsenal, Millwall, Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Bristol City, Coventry City and Aston Villa (again) have all taken points against the Foxes on this day. Surely Carlisle won’t add themselves to this list?

Mathematical Certainty

There is nothing more pleasing to Foxblogger than an absolute mathematical certainty, so here’s one that should cheer any Leicester fan. With a win on Saturday against Peterborough, Leicester will be guaranteed a place in the play-offs at the end of the season. Should Leicester fail to win they will have to rely on Tranmere Rovers failing to win at Brighton. The play-offs may not be what this season is all about, but it’s another sign that with seven matches still to play Leicester are on the verge of returning to the Championship at the first attempt. Want to know how hard that is? Ask Nottingham Forrest, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds…

The Week That Was
City once again had to come from behind at home to take points from plucky visitors. It was the sixth time the visiting side had scored first against Nigel Pearson’s side at the Walkers Stadium. Away from home the opposition have scored first on only three occasions.

Perhaps the expectation at home is too high? Or perhaps some teams have some across a useful strategy. The evidence here is mixed. Some teams who have opened up at the Walkers have been destroyed. Huddersfield and Peterborough spring to mind. Yet Swindon and now Colchester have proved in recent weeks that there are points to be gained by playing with a little adventure, instead of just fear, at the Walkers.

Paul Dickov secured a point with his second league goal of the season. Limited playing time has meant Dickov has managed just seven shots in League One this season. Still, five of them have been on target meaning he has a better strike rate than any other player at the club.

The Week Ahead
Much has been made of Peterborough United recent good run, but of the five sides they’ve dispatched in the last few weeks only Scunthorpe Utd could have been expected to put up a fight against genuine promotion challengers.

Posh haven’t been out of the top six in all of 2009. Before Leicester went on their own record breaking 23 match unbeaten run it was the London Road outfit who had the longest unbeaten streak in League One, a very impressive 16 matches. Recently though things are a little more patchy. Since Valentines day Darren Ferguson’s side have won three and lost two at home.

The surprise home defeats to both Yeovil and Southend might have sent the club on course for a mediocre end to the season. Instead it appears to have galvanised the side. Peterborough despatched Northampton Town at home despite playing most of the game with only 10 men. There’s no doubt that this sort of grit will be on display again on Saturday as Peterborough try to get over the 4-0 reverse at the Walkers Stadium from earlier in the season.

With this being a lunchtime encounter it’s time to trot out the numbers for anyone thinking of placing any serious money on a Leicester victory.

Leicester City’s record in matches kicking off before 15:00 since 2002/03
P18 W2 D4 L13 F12 A29

Consider yourselves warned.

On This Day
Tom Dryburgh netter for City after just 10 seconds against Swansea in a 2-1 victory in 1953. It was a club record that would stand for 53 years until Matty Fryatt opened the scoring against Preston North End on 15th April 2006 after just nine seconds.

The march to promotion continues...

Millwall is still an intimidating place to visit. The police take no chances and fans were forced to wait nearly an hour after the final whistle before being allowed to head to the train station. As the game wore on and it become clear that the Lions would not pose much of a threat the travelling support broke into a chorus of “You’re not scaring anyone”. They were right. In this division Leicester now no longer have anyone left to fear.

The Week That Was
It was surprising just how similar the match at the New Den was to game at the Walkers Stadium. Two scrappy matches were settled with around 20 minutes on the clock by rare pieces of quality finishing. Few chances for either side in the remainder of the match made for a stale spectacle, but at least this time the result was much more pleasing.

Steve Howard now has 13 goals for the season, 11 short of his career best 24 goals for Luton in 2001/02 and six fewer than the 19 he managed for Derby in 2006/07. His strike partner Matty Fryatt has four goals in his last 12 games.

The Week Ahead
Leicester host Colchester United on Saturday, a side who haven’t really settled at their new stadium but have found travelling around League One much more pleasurable. Colchester have eight wins on the road and just five defeats. They are one of only three sides in the division with more wins away than at home, the others being Leyton Orient and Yeovil Town.

In another obstinate gesture to statistical convention the U’s are far stronger in the first half than the second. In League One this season there have been 544 goals scored in the first half and 691 following the change of ends. Paul Lambert’s side have managed to invert this to such an extent that if matches finished at half time Colchester would be sitting pretty in the play-offs. The U’s have scored 27 first half goals and 24 in the second period. Compare that with Leicester who have struck 29 times in the first 45 minutes and 41 times after the break and you’ll see the scale of Colchester’s problems this season. The U’s go to bits after half time.

For Leicester, the important thing at the moment appears to be keeping a clean sheet. In the last eight matches Leicester have only won when they shut out the opposition. Four score draws in that period have I’m sure made anyone with City’s number on the pools very happy indeed.

On This Day
Marcus Bent’s late header on this day in 2004 cancelled out Wayne Rooney’s opener for Everton as City’s battle against the drop looked like being a successful one. The result left the Foxes three points clear of the relegation zone. But the day was a sombre one after it was announced that a 40-year-old fan on his way to the match had died after being struck by flying debris from a building close to the Walkers Stadium.

Inevitability

Last week I mentioned to Rob Henton of Foxpodder that City would lose a match before the end of the season. At the time I didn’t think this was a particularly risky prediction to make, but given that the Leicester Mercury had once again hailed City as invincible it needed to be said. To be fair I thought City would manage a draw at Prenton Park, the trips to Millwall and Peterborough were much more concerning.

Foxblogger is taking on a new structure. Due to increasing work commitments it will now be updated once a week, usually on Thursdays, with a look back at the last week and a preview of the next seven days. If you have any comments on features you’d like to see in the blog, please let me know.

The Week That Was
The visit of Martin Allen’s Cheltenham provided easy predictions for pundits everywhere. The only sport in this match was in predicting how many City would score. Cheltenham have conceded twice as many goals in the second half as the first, so you could make the case that Leicester took their foot off the accelerator after half-time (Matt Oakley’s goal in particular was scored almost at walking pace). Leicester’s domination was total. The Foxes had 60% of the ball, five times as many attempts as the Robins and 10 times as many on target.

The situation could not have been more different at Tranmere as City’s club record 23 match unbeaten run was surrendered without any real fight. As it turns out, the result shouldn’t have been such a surprise. Rovers have the second best home record in League One (behind City of course) and have conceded just 17 goals at home. Leicester seemed to lack any creative spark with Joe Mattock on the left and to be fair to the teenager it’s clearly not his position. Somehow his replacement, Max Gradel, managed to be the player who committed the most fouls by Leicester on the night, despite only being on the pitch for 30 minutes.

The Week Ahead
City take their sixth keeper of the season along with the rest of the now no longer unbeaten squad to the New Den to face the only team in League One who can still do the double over City. The Foxes put in one of their most uninspiring appearances of the season at home to Kenny Jacket’s side in September to slip to what would be their lowest position of the season, sixth.

City were simply bullied out of what was always going to be a physical game, and one would hope Nigel Pearson has prepared his side for the brute force of the Lions this time around. In the reverse fixture at the Walkers Stadium Millwall committed 19 fouls, the most any team has managed at the Walkers this season. Millwall’s disciplinary record is pretty dreadful. The Lions have committed the most fouls (514) and been show more yellow cards than any other side (73). They’ve also picked up six red cards, including one at the Walkers.

Like Tranmere, Millwall have only conceded 17 at home. The Lions have only been beaten four times on their own patch with MK Dons, Scunthorpe, Brighton and Oldham taking maximum points. Leicester might fancy their chances more knowing that 3 of the top six have already won here and that Millwall have won just one of their last five home matches.

But the Lions have shown a dramatic improvement in form since February. Three successive wins in March have put to bed fears that the wheels were falling off their promotion bandwagon after they took just 14 points from 11 games after Christmas. And whilst no-one in Millwall’s squad has scored more than 10 goals this season Leicester will need to take note of the 9 league strikes the Lions have made in the last 5 minutes.

Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

What is so remarkable about Leicester’s five draws in their last six games is not the record itself, but that during this period no side has been able to make significant inroads into City’s 12 point cushion at the top of League One. MK Dons, the side who looked poised to take advantage of any Leicester slips have themselves only won three of their last eight games. Given that sort of form, does anyone really believe Roberto Di Matteo’s side will win all three of their games in hand?

A convincing home victory over Martin Allen’s Cheltenham will steady any jangling, and to be honest, unwarranted nerves.

Key Stats
Last week we saw how Leicester City and MK Dons dominated in almost every positive statistic. Cheltenham have managed completely the opposite this season. The Robins have won just six points away from home this season, managing just one away win at Leyton Orient (the side with League One’s worst home record). A winless streak of 13 matches stretches all the way back to that win at Bisbane Road in December. It will be the divisions longest sequence without a win this season if the Robins fail to win at the Walkers Stadium.

Cheltenham have conceded a staggering 74 goals this season, only seven short of last season’s worst defense in League One, Port Vale. Martin Allen’s men have kept just four clean sheets and failed to find the net themselves in 12 matches.

No less than 42 different players have played in a Cheltenham Town shirt this season. In a desperate attempt to save the Robins from the drop Martin Allen has made 16 loan signings, something which can have done very little for team spirit or cohesion. Cheltenham have played 35 league matches this season, but only one player, Scott Brown, has started more than 20 of them.

There really are no excuses for anything but three points.

On This Day
Leicester City have not played on the 7th March for more than 20 years. Their last match on this day was a 4-0 away defeat at The Dell in1986/87. Southampton left the Foxes two points from safety in the First Division relegation zone - 12 games later they were relegated by that very margin. The Foxes would not see top flight football again until 1994.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 3/10 (boylesports)
Draw – 9/2 (sportingbet)
Cheltenham – 11/1 (bet365)

Match Preview: Stockport County

Unfortunately I haven’t the time to produce a full match preview but I do have a few seconds to share the following information.

Leicester City will be safe from relegation if;
1) They win against Stockport
2) They draw and either Swindon Town or Hereford United fail to win
3) They lose, but at least two of Swindon, Hereford and Briton and Hove Albion fail to win.

If the Foxes are victorious tomorrow they will finish this season no lower than 16th.

So now you know. Enjoy the game.

Match Preview: MK Dons

It’s not been 30 years of hurt, but it has been 29 years since Leicester City were last promoted as Champions. Saturday’s trip to MK Dons presents the last realistic hope for any team to catch Nigel Pearson’s side. Should City leave stadium:mk with a point or three a whole generation of Leicester fans will get to experience what it feels like to be better than all the rest, even if the rest is only League One.

MK Dons are a much improved outfit from the rather shy bunch who arrived at the Walkers Stadium on the opening day of the season and showed City far too much respect. Roberto Di Matteo has placed his impression on the Dons with impressive speed, this will be one of Leicester’s toughest tests of the season.

Key Stats
There is barely a statistic which one of these two sides doesn’t dominate in. Leicester have the most wins, fewest defeats, most clean sheets and League One’s longest undefeated sequence. MK Dons have failed to score in just four matches and the divisions longest winning sequence (6). Leicester and MK Dons have scored the most goals in League One, while Leicester have conceded the fewest.

Despite their lofty position, MK Dons possess only the 9th best home record in League One. Five sides have won at stadium:mk this season, including Leyton Orient. MK Dons have also not fared well in games against the top six, taking just four points from 18.

The most interesting stats to hand demonstrate just how difficult this game is to call. The Dons have dropped a massive 18 points from winning positions this season, yet they’re second only to City when it comes to winning after conceding the first goal. Perhaps one factor that is predictable is late drama. Both Leicester and MK Dons are specialists at late goals. The Foxes have scored nine in the last five minutes, the Dons have netted 10.

On This Day
Stuart Wilson, Muzzy Izzet and Rob Ullathorne struck for City in an impressive second-half display at Ewood Park on this day in 1998. It was just a shame that the Foxes were already 5-0 down when they finally managed to get going. It was probably a day when the Foxes should have known when to quit.

Selected Odds
MK Dons – 13/8 (Coral)
Draw – 12/5 (bet365)
Leicester – 7/4 (SkyBet)

Match Review: Bristol Rovers 0-1 Leicester City

With the Foxes standing 12 points clear at the top of League One and 16 points from third placed Peterborough Utd many City fans are asking “can anybody catch Leicester now”? Well, the answer, statistically speaking, is yes. Cheltenham are the only side in League One who can no longer climb higher than the Foxes and in fact, unlike Manchester Untied, Nigel Pearson’s side are not yet mathematically safe from relegation.

Still, the numbers are overwhelmingly in Leicester’s favour. City are still on target to reach more than 100 points this season and more club records could be smashed before May.

Here are some other numbers…

2 – City hadn’t conceded a penalty all season, then two come along in a week. The last City keeper to stop a spot kick was Paul Henderson. He saved from Sheffield Wednesday’s Deon Burton in the final home match of 2007/08. Leicester conceded five penalties last season.

1 – Jack Hobbs’ dismissal was Leicester’s first of the season. The last City player to get his marching orders was Patrick Kisnorbo after he lasted just 10 minutes at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United in April 2008. Kisnorbo’s red card was rescinded upon appeal, but its unlikely Hobbs will escape a ban.

125 – The number of shots Matty Fryatt has taken this season, the most of any player in League One. His 21 goal return on this effort means Fryatt scores once in every six attempts. At the season’s halfway stage, he was scoring a goal with every fifth attempt.

Match Preview: Bristol Rovers

Optimists and pessimists alike can take comfort from this week’s numbers. If Leicester avoid defeat tomorrow they will set a new club record of 20 league matches unbeaten. However, if City only manage a draw at the Memorial Stadium they will equal their longest winless sequence of the season, four games. The Foxes broke that blip after Matty Fryatt fired two late goals to steal all three points from Bristol Rovers in November. Since then Leicester have won 13 and drawn seven. In one of football’s wonderful symmetries could Rovers, the team who nearly stopped Leicester’s incredible run from starting in the first place, end up being the very team to finish it?

Key Stats
Four wins in the last six have helped Bristol Rovers to allay any fears of relegation this season. The Pirates boast a mixed home record – seven sides have taken points from the Memorial Gound, seven others have left with nothing.

Rovers season has depended much on possessing League One’s top goalscorer, Rickie Lambert, who seems to be finding form again after going six games without a goal in December and January. Matty Fryatt, on the other hand, has managed precious little for City since signing his new contact. The Fryarstater has netted just twice in 11 matches since he put pen to paper on his new deal.

On Tuesday Leicester conceded a penalty for the first time this season and in doing so lost the record they had held with Colchester. Like Leicester, Rovers are a highly disciplined unit. The club have conceded 315 fouls and taken only 28 bookings this season. Millwall, the yardstick by which all footballing indiscretions are measured, have conceded 432 fouls, received 64 yellow cards and a further six red.

On this Day
Emile Heskey fired a second-half brace on this day in 1996 as Leicester came back from 2-1 down to defeat Mark McGhee’s Wolves 3-2 at Molineux. The match was Martin O’Neil’s first win as Leicester boss in his tenth game at the helm. It was his first of 85 victories in 223 games.

Selected Odds
Bristol Rovers – 15/5 (bet365)
Draw – 5/2 (best365)
Leicester – 11/10 (boylesports)

Match Preview: Hartlepool Utd

One of the keys aspects of this blog is clean numbers. As we all know there and lies, damn lies, and statistics, but I hope no-one ever feels they’re being short-changed by cheap figures. For example, I could have opened this blog by telling you that despite only winning five points from nine this month Leicester have the second best record in League One for February.

So what blip?

Well, whilst this would be true, it would disguise the more compelling caveat - City have played more games this month than 20 sides in League One.

That said, City’s recent struggles at home have only served to highlight what a fantastic spell the Blue Army enjoyed in November, December and January. Each consecutive month brought 4 wins, one draw and no league defeats.

Key Stats
This is Leicester’s second ever visit to the Victoria Ground, and it looks as if will be their last for quite some time to come. If things play out by the form book, Leicester will be keeping their 100% record at the home of the Monkey Hangers and bagging their fourth straight away win.

It’s been a sorry few weeks for Hartlepool. They’ve not won for six matches in all competitions and have managed only one win in their nine league outings since Christmas.

Leading scorer Joel Porter has 12 league goals to his name this season, but he’s only scored in two of the ‘Pool’s eight league victories.

As mentioned last week, the Victoria Ground is actually the most entertaining place to watch football in League One. Matches here average 3.8 goals a game, by far and away the highest in the division.

On this Day
Tony Cottee cancelled out Niall Quinn’s opener to send Leicester to the 1999 League Cup Final. Cottee’s 54th minute flick meant that City went through 3-2 on aggregate after a 2-1 victory on Weirside. The night was a double celebration for the Foxes, as on the same evening Leicester City Council approved plans for the proposed new 40,000 all-seater stadium on Bede Island South. Ultimately, matters on and off the pitch that year would prove fruitless. City lost 1-0 to a 93rd minute winner against 10-man Spurs in the League Cup final and the development plans for the new stadium were scrapped.

Selected Odds
Harlepool – 10/3 (SkyBet)
Draw – 13/5 (bet365)
Leicester – 10/11 (totesport)

Match Preview: Swindon Town

Good news everyone! Leicester City has been shortlisted for this year's Best Matchday Programme Award. Congratulations are in order here, it seems as if almost every season City’s matchday literature is up for one award or another. When you go to away grounds you really do appreciate it.

Once you’ve had time to digest Nigel Pearson’s programme notes, it’ll be worth pointing out to those seated nearby that a win will see City all but guarantee at least a place in the play-offs come May. In only one of the last four seasons has 71 points not been good enough to seal a place in the top six.

Key Stats
Danny Wilson hasn’t really been able to stop the rot at Swindon. The Robins have won just two league games since November. That said, Swindon have yet to slip into the bottom four this season thanks to eight draws in 15 league matches.

Swindon seem more comfortable away from the County Ground at the moment. They’ve conceded fewer goals on the road than at home, a claim only six sides in League One can make. But this hides a far more telling statistic, the Robins have kept just two clean sheet this season.

By contrast Leicester have kept the most clean sheets in League One (13) and have conceded the fewest home goals in the division (9).

Swindon’s record is full of interesting and what might seem contradictory numbers. The club has yet to lose a league match this season in which they have scored the first goal. This statistic is made more remarkable by the fact that 40% of the goals Swindon have conceded this season have come in the last 20 minutes. In theory, the best Leicester can hope for should they fall behind is a draw. Swindon have chucked 14 points away from wining positions in the current campaign, it’s how they’ve managed seven of their ten league draws.

Like Leicester, Swindon are heavily reliant on a single striker for their goals. Simon Cox has bagged 18 so far this season in all competitions. Without Cox, Swindon would be 11 points worse off and four points adrift at the bottom. Matty Fryatt has won 15 points for Leicester this season.

Finally, a betting tip. Should you, like many others, expect City to get the first goal then take note of Leicester’s first goalscorers this season – there have only been four. Steve Howard, Matty Fryatt and Lloyd Dyer have each bagged the first goal on six occasions in 2008/09, Matt Oakley has four. If you place the right bets, you can easily cover your stake on all four.

On This Day
A Richard Stearman own goal on Valentines Day in 2006 meant Derby escaped from the Walkers Stadium with a 2-2 draw. Ian Hume had cancelled out Mounir El Hamdaoui's (who?) opener before Alan Maybury put the Foxes in front. The result left City one point and one place higher in the table.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 2/5 (bet365)
Draw – 7/2 (bet365)
Swindon – 15/2 (BlueSq)

Match Review: Leicester City 0-0 Oldham Athletic

“Shocking scenes. How did we not win that? They had the mascot for Pukka Pies in goal!”

It was once rumoured that the great Martin O’Neil was interested in signing Dean Windass. The veteran striker is just one short of 200 league goals but last night he kept his first clean sheet. Matty Fryatt clearly let the situation get the better of him. The delay between the award of the penalty hand the strike itself gave English football’s top scorer far too much time to think about it. There’s no doubt Windass played his part too, all credit to him.

Here are some interesting numbers…

4 – The number of players dismissed in matches against Leicester this season. Stockport, Millwall, Huddersfield and Oldham have been reduced to 10, Leicester have yet to see a single player see red.

0 – Leicester City have yet to win a game at 17:20. The Foxes just can’t seem to adjust to tea time kick-offs. They’ve scored only twice in five matches which have kicked off late for Sky’s Saturday night football.

197 – The number of minutes since a goal was scored at the Walkers Stadium. There have been 38 goals in 16 league matches at the Walkers this season, an average on 2.375 per game. This is better than life at Southend where matches average just two goals a game. But by far and away the most entertaining place in League One to watch football this season has been Victoria Park – 3.8 goals a game are scored there.

Match Preview: Oldham Athletic

It wasn’t supposed to be this easy, was it? At this rate, City will be promoted by the end of March. Ironically, the way in which this campaign has appeared at times almost routine has created not just respect for Nigel Pearson, but even greater expectation.

Yet just one defeat will be enough to convince some of an impending tailspin. Leicester will lose again before the season is over, and Oldham are as likely as any team in League One to turn City over. Here’s why…

Key Stats
For a few weeks at the start of the season Oldham appeared to be in title contention, and whilst John Shreidan’s men haven’t been able to keep the pace it’s not because, as some might argue, their players are a bunch of journeymen over the hill. In the Latics’ last home game against Swindon they fielded a starting 11 with an average age of 27. The number is only dragged upwards sharply by the strike partnership of Lee Hughes (33) and Dean Windass (39). Five of that 11 were under the age of 23. Despite his best years being behind him, Hughes has certainly craved a niche for himself in League One. The former West Brom and Coventry man has 15 goals this season making him the division’s joint 5th top scorer.

Oldham, along with Leicester, have the best record against other sides in the top 6. Both have taken 11 points from a possible 18 and the sides couldn’t be separated at Blundell Park in October.

Oldham are resolute. They have the second best record in the second half…second only in League One to Leicester. But what’s more impressive is that the Latics have conceded just one in the last 15 minutes all season. This is precisely the period in matches where City have proven most productive.

On This Day
It was a tale of two penalties as Leicester faced Leeds on this day in 1998 at Filbert Street. Gary Parker professionally dispatched his spot kick past Nigel Martyn on the stoke of half-time. Then, as the final whistle loomed large, Leeds had the chance to level from 18 yards themselves. Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink hopped, skipped and sent the ball wide to the delight of the kop and City debutant Theo Zagorakis.

Selected odds
Leicester – 4/6 (Totesport)
Draw – 14/5 (bet365)
Oldham – 5/1 (Totesport)