Match Review: Leicester City 3-0 Leyton Orient

This was no challenge at all. City brushed aside the O’s to move (temporarily at least) five points clear at the top of League One and one step closer to promotion. Nine more wins should see City back in the Championship. The countdown continues…

Here are some numbers...

3 – The Foxes defence restricted the Orient to just three efforts on goal, the fewest any side have managed for 11 games. With just three goals conceded in six games City are back to imperious defensive form with which they began the season.

3 – The number of games Matty Fryatt has gone without a goal. Amazingly this equals his longest dry spell of the season. Previously Fryatt had gone three league games without strikes against Oldham, Walsall and Northampton. He followed the drought with four goals in two games; Yeovil beware.

61% - It wasn’t quite the staggering 73% of the ball Arsenal managed at home to Bolton on Saturday, but for the eighth game in nine City held more of the ball than their opponents. Only MK Dons on the opening day have taken a greater share of possession at the Walkers Stadium this season.

Match Preview: Leyton Orient

In the last four seasons the average points total of League One’s champions is 86.25. Having taken 51 points in 2008, City are well ahead of schedule. Automatic promotion usually requires around 81 points so, statistically, City need another 10 wins from their remaining 23 matches to ensure a return to the Championship. It’s no wonder you can only get 2/9 these days on City to go straight back up. The first opportunity to cut this 10 win target to 9 arrives in the shape of Leyton Orient who just before the New Year slipped into the bottom four for the first time since November.

Key Stats
It would not be fair to say Leicester and Leyton Orient’s campaigns have diverged after City snatched a late win at Brisbane Road (the two sides didn’t exactly mix in the same circles anyway) but Orient’s steady start to 08/09 has gone from bad to worse. The O’s have won just three games in the last 17 and arrive at the Walkers Stadium on the back of five matches without a victory.

Orient have the worst home record in League One and perhaps unsurprisingly have taken more points on their travels. That said, when this record is a rather uninspiring 13 points from 12 games you can hardly expect Nigel Pearson to be having too many sleepless nights over this fixture.

Only Hereford United (17) have scored fewer goals than Orient (18) in League One. Top scorer Adam Boyd (7) has only netted once in the last six games.

Leicester continue to set the standard in League One. The Foxes are undefeated in 10 league matches and have won their last six straight in front of their own fans. Season ticket holders are without doubt getting value for money this year.

City fans looking for a value bet should head for an old favourite. Leicester/Leicester as a double result looks better value than the home win when you consider Orient have conceded 26 goals in the first half this season, but only 12 in the second.

On This Day
Gary Parker’s second half penalty looked to have given the Foxes all three points at Villa Park on this day in 1998. Julian Joachim had other ideas and his 87th minutes equaliser ensured the spoils were shared. Nine of the 20 sides in the Premier League table that day no longer ply their trade in the English football’s top tier.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 2/5 (Boylesports)
Draw – 7/2 (Bet365)
Leyton Orient – 8/1 (Bet365)

Match Review: Leicester City 0-0 Crystal Palace

There are some games that don’t deserve to remain goalless – this wasn’t one of them. In a first half devoid of skill the best first touch came not from the players but a ball boy. The applause and ironic chants of “Sign him up!” summed up one of the worst 45 minutes of football at the Walkers Stadium. Things improved somewhat in the second half, though not enough that the prospect of doing it all again on Tuesday week is a mouth-watering proposition.

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13 – The Foxes have not lost at home since Millwall turned over Nigel Pearson’s side in September. Not even the Manager of the Month curse could shake this rather impressive record of 13 home league and cup matches without defeat for City.

12 – Max Gradel hadn’t started a game for Leicester since the home win over Bristol Rovers a dozen games ago. After a lightning start to the season Gradel has clearly fallen out of favour with Nigel Pearson, and despite forcing a late save from Speroni he still appeared out of sorts. Despite his limited starting opportunities (11 starts, 7 substitute appearances) Gradel still has the second most assists at the club this season. The Ivorian winger has five so this term, Steve Howard has six.

8.00 – According the BBC’s Player Rater Steve Howard was yesterday’s Man of the Match. That said the former Derby man did miss the best chance of the match. In the Midseason Fact Check I noted Matty Fryatt needs fives chances for every goal he scores. Howard’s strike rate in League One is 6.78%, or roughly one goal for every 15 attempts.

Program Note: If you'd like to hear me discussing the match with Rob Henton on Foxpodder you can do so here.

Midseason Fact Check

We’re exactly halfway through the season and Leicester fans couldn’t really have asked for any more heading into 2009. This is Leicester City’s best start to a season since the introduction of three points for a win. City are two points clear at the top of League One, seven points clear of third placed Millwall and have a 14 point cushion on play-off chasers Stockport in seventh.

Some statistics speak for themselves, the Foxes have suffered the fewest defeats (2), conceded the fewest goals (19) and, along with Oldham and Millwall, have kept the most clean sheets (9). Leicester have the best home record in League One, including a mightily impressive nine home wins. For the first time in six seasons, the Walkers Stadium is a fortress.

Leicester’s winning streak of five games this season is something the club have not matched since the promotion campaign on 2002/03, but still short of the club record 7 wins last achieved in 1993. The club’s current run of 10 league games unbeaten is the longest active sequence in the League One, but Nigel Pearson’s men will have to stay undefeated until mid-February to beat Peterborough United’s record of 16 games without a loss.

The numbers above tell us Leicester are doing well, to find out why, we have to dig a little deeper.

One of the most striking contrasts between this season and last has been the consistent starters in the Leicester line-up. Last season only defenders in the form of Richard Stearman, Patrick Kisnorbo and Gareth McAuley started 75% or more league games. This term is has been the forward players who have first on the team sheet. Matty Fryatt, Lloyd Dyer and Andy King have been ever-present, whilst Steve Howard and Matt Oakley have joined them over 75% of the time. The only defensive player to make this mark is the impressive Aleksander Tunchev.

And whilst defensively Leicester appear solid, it’s clear that tinkering has the power to unsettle. In October, a month in which Leicester picked up just six points from five games, the back four was changed for every single match.

Last season Leicester used a staggering 41 players, the most in the Championship. This season City have used 26 players, average amongst sides in the division. Martin Allen’s Cheltenham have already used 37 players this year, and have featured in the bottom four since October. Go figure.

A significant change for the better this season has been City’s ability to play to the form book. This season, unlike any other in recent memory, Leicester have been ruthless is putting away teams when expected. Leicester have taken a mightily impressive 29 points of a possible 36 against teams in the bottom half of League One. Only MK Dons (31 points) can better this record.

Equally, the Foxes have been impressive against their rivals, in a league table comprising the top six, Leicester lie second with 10 points from 15. Oldham have proven strongest against their top six rivals with 11 points from 15, but lie fifth in League One instead of top because they’ve only managed 19 points against teams in the bottom half. Surprisingly, both MK Dons and Millwall have taken just three points against sides in the top six, a factor that could prove telling during promotion six-pointers in March, April and May.

Another area of dramatic improvement has been in front of goal. Matty Fryatt’s 18 goals have made him Leicester’s most prolific striker since Derek Dougan. As well as being the division’s joint top scorer, Fryatt has taken the most shots in League One. The Fryarstarter makes the keeper work with two thirds of his attempts, but Fryatt’s strike rate is just 19.56% - he literally needs five chances for every goal he scores. As a result, whilst there is no doubt Fryatt has excelled in League One, whether he can cut it in the Championship remains an open question.

Discipline is another factor which Nigel Pearson seems to have installed in his side. Leicester have the 4th best disciplinary record in League One, this despite having the division’s most penalised player. Steve Howard has been responsible for 68 of the 261 fouls called against Leicester this season, more than one in four City infringements. More pleasingly, Leicester are one of only two sides in League One yet to have a player dismissed. They’re also yet to concede a penalty, only City and Colchester can claim that this season.

Perhaps the only really bad news in statistical form comes off the pitch. Leicester’s average attendance this season is down nearly 4,000, from 23,508 to 19,572. If we conservatively guestimate the number of concessions and suggest an average ticket price of £15, that will equate to a loss of revenue over the season of £1.38m. It’s just one figure to show how desperately Leicester need to return to the Championship at the first attempt. Fortunately, if the numbers play out as they have so far, City are in good shape to do just that.

Program Note: I'll be on Foxpodder tomorrow after the Crystal Palace game to discuss the season so far. To listen to the show and to subscribe, click here.

Match Preview: Hereford United

Leicester’s final fixture of 2008 pits Nigel Pearson’s side against one of League One’s whipping boys. Just two and a half years ago Hereford were at the Walkers Stadium winning the Conference Play-off Final. A second successive promotion for the Bulls last season looks to have been a step too far. Hereford lie five points adrift of safety having remained in the bottom four since September. Leicester will need a win to guarantee top spot going into the New Year.

Key Stats
How do you define a home banker? Well if you fancy Hereford to win you’ll find prices raging from 8/1 to 10/1 - and here’s why…

Hereford have taken just four points away from home all season, they’ve scored just four goals on their travels and lost four out of their last five away matches. The Bulls concede over two goals a game on the road and have kept just one away clean sheet.

Still not convinced? Hereford’s only away win came at Colchester, the side with the second worst home record in League One. Leyton Orient, holders of that dubious title, defeated the Bulls 2-1 on the opening day of the season.

To round things off, Hereford have yet to beat a side in the top half of League One and in four previous meetings they've yet to better the Foxes. Only Guinan (6) and Hudson-Odoi (3) have scored more than one goal this season.

There will be no excuses for defeat.

On This Day
Mike Whitlow’s equaliser at Old Trafford gave new manager Mark McGhee his second point in charge of Leicester City. Having already secured a goalless draw against league leaders Blackburn Rovers, McGhee’s new charges fought back after Andrei Kanchelskis had given the Champions a second half lead. It was the Foxes second away point of a miserable campaign which would see City relegated with just 29 points.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 1/3 (Boylesports)
Draw – 4/1 (Bet365)
Hereford – 10/1 (Sky Bet)

Match Preview: Leeds United

Whilst the sentimental factor in Simon Grayson’s move to Leeds cannot be understated, Larry spent the best years of playing career at Filbert Street. Grayson made 214 starts for the Foxes in all competitions and scored six goals. The Ripon born right-back averaged a goal every fifty games during his playing days. Easily his most important strike for the Foxes was the equaliser in the Coca-Cola Cup semi-final at Wimbledon, which helped City progress to their first league cup triumph under Martin O’Neil.

This fixture was highlighted at the start of the season as a potential fight for top spot. Back in August it was Leeds, not Leicester who were favourites for the title. Now three high street bookmakers have City as odds on to finish the season in first, William Hill list Leeds at 16/1. Grayson will have his work cut out.

Key Stats
Leeds’ current form has been well advertised, six matches ago the Whites were 2nd, now they lie 9th. Thanks to their defeat of Peterborough last week, Leicester now have the longest current unbeaten run in League One of eight games.

Since both sides dropped out of the Premier League City have won two of their three trips to Elland Road. Oldham, Huddersfield and Colchester have emerged with maximum points so far this term.

Whilst many people have pointed to defensive problems, psychological issues could also be affecting Leeds. The club have let more points slip than any other in League One. Leeds have lost four games in which they at one stage had the lead, they’ve dropped 16 points in total, enough to put them top of the division.

On This Day
Leicester turned a half-time deficit into a Boxing Day win at Hull on this day in 2006. Goals from Patrick Kisnorbo and Gareth Williams secured all three points for City in a 2-1 win. The result put the Foxes 16th after 25 games, Hull were left five points adrift of safety on 21 points. How depressing.

Selected Odds
Leeds – 13/8 (Bet365)
Draw – 12/5 (Sky Bet)
Leicester – 17/10 (William Hill)

Match Review: Leicester City 4-0 Peterborough United

Posh’s 16 match unbeaten run came crashing to an end as Leicester marched on to their fifth successive victory. It’s the first time Leicester have achieved such a feat since April 2003 when Preston, Burnley, Coventry, Grimsby and Nottingham Forrest all fell in succession. The Foxes’ four point cushion will guarantee that Leicester are top on Boxing Day. Since League One took on its new name two of the four occupants of top spot on Boxing Day have gone on to win the title, three have been promoted automatically.

Merry Christmas!

Here are some other numbers

23,390 – Leicester’s largest crowd of the season was comfortably the biggest in League One yesterday, but it was also greater than nine attendances in the Championship. The Foxes’ home support was larger than the crowds Blackburn (23,004) and Bolton (19,884) could muster too. Impressive stuff, though undoubtedly helped by a sizable Posh following.

12 – Steve Howard had gone a dozen games without a goal before his last minute strike from outside the box. Since his opener at Oldham, Howard has been playing second fiddle to the Fryarstarter, though his contribution is not going unnoticed. If anyone deserved to be on the score sheet, it was Howard.

2 – Craig Morgan’s blunder was the second own goal to benefit the Foxes in 2008. In a interesting quirk, before yesterday the last three own goals scored for Leicester had settled the game. Darren Purse (Cardiff), Neil Austin (Barnsley) and John McGreal (Burnley) had all been unwitting match winners in 1-0 defeats for their respective clubs. At least Craig Morgan can rest knowing things probably wouldn’t have turned out much differently without his sixth minute intervention.