Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

What is so remarkable about Leicester’s five draws in their last six games is not the record itself, but that during this period no side has been able to make significant inroads into City’s 12 point cushion at the top of League One. MK Dons, the side who looked poised to take advantage of any Leicester slips have themselves only won three of their last eight games. Given that sort of form, does anyone really believe Roberto Di Matteo’s side will win all three of their games in hand?

A convincing home victory over Martin Allen’s Cheltenham will steady any jangling, and to be honest, unwarranted nerves.

Key Stats
Last week we saw how Leicester City and MK Dons dominated in almost every positive statistic. Cheltenham have managed completely the opposite this season. The Robins have won just six points away from home this season, managing just one away win at Leyton Orient (the side with League One’s worst home record). A winless streak of 13 matches stretches all the way back to that win at Bisbane Road in December. It will be the divisions longest sequence without a win this season if the Robins fail to win at the Walkers Stadium.

Cheltenham have conceded a staggering 74 goals this season, only seven short of last season’s worst defense in League One, Port Vale. Martin Allen’s men have kept just four clean sheets and failed to find the net themselves in 12 matches.

No less than 42 different players have played in a Cheltenham Town shirt this season. In a desperate attempt to save the Robins from the drop Martin Allen has made 16 loan signings, something which can have done very little for team spirit or cohesion. Cheltenham have played 35 league matches this season, but only one player, Scott Brown, has started more than 20 of them.

There really are no excuses for anything but three points.

On This Day
Leicester City have not played on the 7th March for more than 20 years. Their last match on this day was a 4-0 away defeat at The Dell in1986/87. Southampton left the Foxes two points from safety in the First Division relegation zone - 12 games later they were relegated by that very margin. The Foxes would not see top flight football again until 1994.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 3/10 (boylesports)
Draw – 9/2 (sportingbet)
Cheltenham – 11/1 (bet365)

Match Preview: Stockport County

Unfortunately I haven’t the time to produce a full match preview but I do have a few seconds to share the following information.

Leicester City will be safe from relegation if;
1) They win against Stockport
2) They draw and either Swindon Town or Hereford United fail to win
3) They lose, but at least two of Swindon, Hereford and Briton and Hove Albion fail to win.

If the Foxes are victorious tomorrow they will finish this season no lower than 16th.

So now you know. Enjoy the game.

Match Preview: MK Dons

It’s not been 30 years of hurt, but it has been 29 years since Leicester City were last promoted as Champions. Saturday’s trip to MK Dons presents the last realistic hope for any team to catch Nigel Pearson’s side. Should City leave stadium:mk with a point or three a whole generation of Leicester fans will get to experience what it feels like to be better than all the rest, even if the rest is only League One.

MK Dons are a much improved outfit from the rather shy bunch who arrived at the Walkers Stadium on the opening day of the season and showed City far too much respect. Roberto Di Matteo has placed his impression on the Dons with impressive speed, this will be one of Leicester’s toughest tests of the season.

Key Stats
There is barely a statistic which one of these two sides doesn’t dominate in. Leicester have the most wins, fewest defeats, most clean sheets and League One’s longest undefeated sequence. MK Dons have failed to score in just four matches and the divisions longest winning sequence (6). Leicester and MK Dons have scored the most goals in League One, while Leicester have conceded the fewest.

Despite their lofty position, MK Dons possess only the 9th best home record in League One. Five sides have won at stadium:mk this season, including Leyton Orient. MK Dons have also not fared well in games against the top six, taking just four points from 18.

The most interesting stats to hand demonstrate just how difficult this game is to call. The Dons have dropped a massive 18 points from winning positions this season, yet they’re second only to City when it comes to winning after conceding the first goal. Perhaps one factor that is predictable is late drama. Both Leicester and MK Dons are specialists at late goals. The Foxes have scored nine in the last five minutes, the Dons have netted 10.

On This Day
Stuart Wilson, Muzzy Izzet and Rob Ullathorne struck for City in an impressive second-half display at Ewood Park on this day in 1998. It was just a shame that the Foxes were already 5-0 down when they finally managed to get going. It was probably a day when the Foxes should have known when to quit.

Selected Odds
MK Dons – 13/8 (Coral)
Draw – 12/5 (bet365)
Leicester – 7/4 (SkyBet)

Match Review: Bristol Rovers 0-1 Leicester City

With the Foxes standing 12 points clear at the top of League One and 16 points from third placed Peterborough Utd many City fans are asking “can anybody catch Leicester now”? Well, the answer, statistically speaking, is yes. Cheltenham are the only side in League One who can no longer climb higher than the Foxes and in fact, unlike Manchester Untied, Nigel Pearson’s side are not yet mathematically safe from relegation.

Still, the numbers are overwhelmingly in Leicester’s favour. City are still on target to reach more than 100 points this season and more club records could be smashed before May.

Here are some other numbers…

2 – City hadn’t conceded a penalty all season, then two come along in a week. The last City keeper to stop a spot kick was Paul Henderson. He saved from Sheffield Wednesday’s Deon Burton in the final home match of 2007/08. Leicester conceded five penalties last season.

1 – Jack Hobbs’ dismissal was Leicester’s first of the season. The last City player to get his marching orders was Patrick Kisnorbo after he lasted just 10 minutes at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United in April 2008. Kisnorbo’s red card was rescinded upon appeal, but its unlikely Hobbs will escape a ban.

125 – The number of shots Matty Fryatt has taken this season, the most of any player in League One. His 21 goal return on this effort means Fryatt scores once in every six attempts. At the season’s halfway stage, he was scoring a goal with every fifth attempt.

Match Preview: Bristol Rovers

Optimists and pessimists alike can take comfort from this week’s numbers. If Leicester avoid defeat tomorrow they will set a new club record of 20 league matches unbeaten. However, if City only manage a draw at the Memorial Stadium they will equal their longest winless sequence of the season, four games. The Foxes broke that blip after Matty Fryatt fired two late goals to steal all three points from Bristol Rovers in November. Since then Leicester have won 13 and drawn seven. In one of football’s wonderful symmetries could Rovers, the team who nearly stopped Leicester’s incredible run from starting in the first place, end up being the very team to finish it?

Key Stats
Four wins in the last six have helped Bristol Rovers to allay any fears of relegation this season. The Pirates boast a mixed home record – seven sides have taken points from the Memorial Gound, seven others have left with nothing.

Rovers season has depended much on possessing League One’s top goalscorer, Rickie Lambert, who seems to be finding form again after going six games without a goal in December and January. Matty Fryatt, on the other hand, has managed precious little for City since signing his new contact. The Fryarstater has netted just twice in 11 matches since he put pen to paper on his new deal.

On Tuesday Leicester conceded a penalty for the first time this season and in doing so lost the record they had held with Colchester. Like Leicester, Rovers are a highly disciplined unit. The club have conceded 315 fouls and taken only 28 bookings this season. Millwall, the yardstick by which all footballing indiscretions are measured, have conceded 432 fouls, received 64 yellow cards and a further six red.

On this Day
Emile Heskey fired a second-half brace on this day in 1996 as Leicester came back from 2-1 down to defeat Mark McGhee’s Wolves 3-2 at Molineux. The match was Martin O’Neil’s first win as Leicester boss in his tenth game at the helm. It was his first of 85 victories in 223 games.

Selected Odds
Bristol Rovers – 15/5 (bet365)
Draw – 5/2 (best365)
Leicester – 11/10 (boylesports)

Match Preview: Hartlepool Utd

One of the keys aspects of this blog is clean numbers. As we all know there and lies, damn lies, and statistics, but I hope no-one ever feels they’re being short-changed by cheap figures. For example, I could have opened this blog by telling you that despite only winning five points from nine this month Leicester have the second best record in League One for February.

So what blip?

Well, whilst this would be true, it would disguise the more compelling caveat - City have played more games this month than 20 sides in League One.

That said, City’s recent struggles at home have only served to highlight what a fantastic spell the Blue Army enjoyed in November, December and January. Each consecutive month brought 4 wins, one draw and no league defeats.

Key Stats
This is Leicester’s second ever visit to the Victoria Ground, and it looks as if will be their last for quite some time to come. If things play out by the form book, Leicester will be keeping their 100% record at the home of the Monkey Hangers and bagging their fourth straight away win.

It’s been a sorry few weeks for Hartlepool. They’ve not won for six matches in all competitions and have managed only one win in their nine league outings since Christmas.

Leading scorer Joel Porter has 12 league goals to his name this season, but he’s only scored in two of the ‘Pool’s eight league victories.

As mentioned last week, the Victoria Ground is actually the most entertaining place to watch football in League One. Matches here average 3.8 goals a game, by far and away the highest in the division.

On this Day
Tony Cottee cancelled out Niall Quinn’s opener to send Leicester to the 1999 League Cup Final. Cottee’s 54th minute flick meant that City went through 3-2 on aggregate after a 2-1 victory on Weirside. The night was a double celebration for the Foxes, as on the same evening Leicester City Council approved plans for the proposed new 40,000 all-seater stadium on Bede Island South. Ultimately, matters on and off the pitch that year would prove fruitless. City lost 1-0 to a 93rd minute winner against 10-man Spurs in the League Cup final and the development plans for the new stadium were scrapped.

Selected Odds
Harlepool – 10/3 (SkyBet)
Draw – 13/5 (bet365)
Leicester – 10/11 (totesport)

Match Preview: Swindon Town

Good news everyone! Leicester City has been shortlisted for this year's Best Matchday Programme Award. Congratulations are in order here, it seems as if almost every season City’s matchday literature is up for one award or another. When you go to away grounds you really do appreciate it.

Once you’ve had time to digest Nigel Pearson’s programme notes, it’ll be worth pointing out to those seated nearby that a win will see City all but guarantee at least a place in the play-offs come May. In only one of the last four seasons has 71 points not been good enough to seal a place in the top six.

Key Stats
Danny Wilson hasn’t really been able to stop the rot at Swindon. The Robins have won just two league games since November. That said, Swindon have yet to slip into the bottom four this season thanks to eight draws in 15 league matches.

Swindon seem more comfortable away from the County Ground at the moment. They’ve conceded fewer goals on the road than at home, a claim only six sides in League One can make. But this hides a far more telling statistic, the Robins have kept just two clean sheet this season.

By contrast Leicester have kept the most clean sheets in League One (13) and have conceded the fewest home goals in the division (9).

Swindon’s record is full of interesting and what might seem contradictory numbers. The club has yet to lose a league match this season in which they have scored the first goal. This statistic is made more remarkable by the fact that 40% of the goals Swindon have conceded this season have come in the last 20 minutes. In theory, the best Leicester can hope for should they fall behind is a draw. Swindon have chucked 14 points away from wining positions in the current campaign, it’s how they’ve managed seven of their ten league draws.

Like Leicester, Swindon are heavily reliant on a single striker for their goals. Simon Cox has bagged 18 so far this season in all competitions. Without Cox, Swindon would be 11 points worse off and four points adrift at the bottom. Matty Fryatt has won 15 points for Leicester this season.

Finally, a betting tip. Should you, like many others, expect City to get the first goal then take note of Leicester’s first goalscorers this season – there have only been four. Steve Howard, Matty Fryatt and Lloyd Dyer have each bagged the first goal on six occasions in 2008/09, Matt Oakley has four. If you place the right bets, you can easily cover your stake on all four.

On This Day
A Richard Stearman own goal on Valentines Day in 2006 meant Derby escaped from the Walkers Stadium with a 2-2 draw. Ian Hume had cancelled out Mounir El Hamdaoui's (who?) opener before Alan Maybury put the Foxes in front. The result left City one point and one place higher in the table.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 2/5 (bet365)
Draw – 7/2 (bet365)
Swindon – 15/2 (BlueSq)