Desire

At 14:55 Leicester fans had to ponder a string of unpleasant realities. Not only were they in very real danger of being knocked off top spot for the first time since 22nd November, Millwall could have reduced the gap between City and the play-offs to just four points. But it was Cheltenham Town, the team with the worst away record of any League One side, who’d conceded 46 goals on their travels, whose only away win had come at the side with the division’s worst home record (Leyton Orient), who’d taken just 5 points in the 21 games where their opponents had scored first, who’d lost 6-3 at home to Peterborough United in December, this Cheltenham Town side took a half-time deficit and secured a draw for the first time this season.

Then Yeovil Town, the side with the fewest goals this season, whose top scorer had managed just five league strikes, who’d won just four games against teams in the top half, who could boast the fifth worst home record in League One, who faced a Millwall side that had won their last five away games, this Yeovil Town side scored a goal in each half to win by two clear goals for only the third time this season.

At 14:55 Leicester fans were worried not only about the Championship, but promotion too. Now they have the chance to seal promotion and go a good way towards securing the title before either Peterborough Untied or Millwall play again. Millwall’s defeat means that City need just 6 points from their remaining five fixtures to be sure of Championship football next year (though given the disparity in goal difference, five points would be enough in reality). Peterborough’s failure to beat Martin Allen’s doomed Cheltenham means that Leicester could make to gap between themselves and the Posh seven points. A lead like that with just five games remaining would surely prove insurmountable.

The question is, do City want it enough?

Here’s everything, statistically, you need to know about the weekend ahead.

Hereford United
Hereford are eleven points from safety with just six matches to avoid the drop. If recent form is anything to go by the Bulls have little interest in saving themselves, Hereford have lost eight of their last nine matches, scoring six and conceding 19.

It’s been a miserable campaign with just two weeks out of the bottom four (one of those was the season’s opening weekend). Hereford have been in League One’s basement since 13th September.

But this is not the done deal it might appear. Oldham and Leeds have been high profile causalities at Edgar Street this year, Oldham in particular took a 5-0 pasting in January. The lesson for Leicester is score first, preferably in the first half. Hereford are yet to win a match this season in which their opponents have scored the opening goal and they have yet to win when trailing at the interval. This should be the easier of the weekend’s fixtures, but as Peterborough and Millwall have already demonstrated, nothing is that simple.

Leeds United
There are just four sides in League One who the Foxes haven’t beaten this season. Stockport County, Swindon Town and Brighton & Hove Albion are part of an exclusive group which only Leeds United can now join.

Simon Grayson’s side have hit form at what seems to be just the right time. The Whites are undefeated in ten – a sequence which includes seven victories. It’s a run which has propelled United from eighth to fifth, probably too late for an automatic promotion push, but Leeds in this form will certainly fancy their chances in the play-offs.

To beat Leeds, City will have to overcome two statistical anomalies which are in danger of becoming serious bugbears. As this blog has mentioned time and again, the Foxes are next to useless at early kick-offs. In the last 19 matches played before 15:00 City have won just two and lost a staggering 14.

Adding to this worry is the camera shy nature of Leicester sides at the Walkers Stadium in recent years. City’s last four home matches televised on Sky Sports have seen just one win and one goal for the Foxes. The results since 2007/08;

Cardiff – 0-0
Crystal Palace – 1-0
Plymouth – 0-1
Oldham – 0-0

You can draw your own conclusions, but a few quid on a goalless draw might be the best bet out there.

City will have to overcome some big challenges to secure promotion on Monday, but I told Rob Henton of Foxpodder a month ago that 13th April would be our promotion party (listen here) and I’d dearly love to be right.

EDIT: When writing this post I made the schoolboy error of forgetting to account for MK Dons' game in hand. Leicester City can still be promoted on Monday, but as well as defeating Hereford and Leeds over the weekend City will need to hope Roberto Di Matteo's side fail to win at home to Bristol Rovers. The champagne might be on ice a little longer, but you never know...

Panic

“Are there a hint of nerves kicking in at Leicester?” wrote John Ashdown of the Guardian this week. Leaving aside the terrible grammar, does he have a point? Well there are certainly Leicester fans who, having become accustomed to disappointment in the past five seasons, have surrendered the title in their heads already. A quick glance a Talking Balls will show you what I mean.

But surely there is nothing to worry about. Even if Millwall win five of their last six matches (and Millwall haven’t won five consecutive matches since last September) City will still only need to scrape six points from their final six matches thanks to their vastly superior goal difference.

The more optimistic of you might be interested to know that City are the only side left in the Football League who can reach 100 points for the season. Though to reach this colossal total they will have to win six consecutive matches, something the Foxes haven’t managed in the 15 seasons I’ve been following the club. The best winning streak Leicester have managed this season is five, equalling a run they last managed in 2002/03.

The Week That Was
There was a large Steve Howard shaped hole in the Leicester side which travelled to Peterborough last week. It’s telling that in the three league matches in which Howard has not featured Leicester have failed to keep posession. At home to Colchester, City had 49% of the ball. At Peterborough, the Foxes managed just 43% possession. Most staggeringly at Scunthorpe, Leicester managed just 36%.

Matty Fryatt took the award for League One player of the season this week. The awards ceremony taking place whilst the season is still ongoing was one of the talking points raised by fans, and Fryatt’s Jekyll and Hyde season probably means another more consistent League One striker might have been more deserving. Fryatt scored 23 goals before Christmas but has only managed five in nineteen games since he signed his new contract. The Fryarstarter hasn’t scored in four matches.

Usually this season Leicester have been able to call off matches played on international weekends with Andy King, Aleksander Tunchev and Nicky Adams all representing their countries. It was one of the factors which has allowed King to keep a 100% appearance record this season. The Foxes certainly missed him at London Road.

The Week Ahead
Carlisle Untied provided League One with this season’s false start. The Cambrians took 13 points from the campaign’s opening five matches and looked set to begin anew their quest for promotion. 35 games and just 30 points later Carlisle lie just one point above the relegation zone and, thanks to the form of Crewe and Leyton Orient, its become a real scrap. No team below Huddersfield in 14th is yet realistically safe from the drop, though this blog being what it is, I should point out that only the top seven are mathematically safe from relegation.

Carlisle have managed just 17 goals away from home this season, only Yeovil and the damned Hereford United have managed fewer. Eleven defeats on their twenty road trips this season have made the majority of those long journeys back to Cumbria pretty miserable for the Carlisle faithful.

Without a win in six and with just one victory in their last ten matches Carlisle do not arrive at the Walkers Stadium in any sort of form. Though Leicester as we know are not exactly in great shape either. If the League table was based just on March’s results Nigel Pearson’s side would lie 14th

On This Day
Since beating Aston Villa on this day in 1970 Leicester have failed to win a match on 4th April. Arsenal, Millwall, Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Bristol City, Coventry City and Aston Villa (again) have all taken points against the Foxes on this day. Surely Carlisle won’t add themselves to this list?

Mathematical Certainty

There is nothing more pleasing to Foxblogger than an absolute mathematical certainty, so here’s one that should cheer any Leicester fan. With a win on Saturday against Peterborough, Leicester will be guaranteed a place in the play-offs at the end of the season. Should Leicester fail to win they will have to rely on Tranmere Rovers failing to win at Brighton. The play-offs may not be what this season is all about, but it’s another sign that with seven matches still to play Leicester are on the verge of returning to the Championship at the first attempt. Want to know how hard that is? Ask Nottingham Forrest, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds…

The Week That Was
City once again had to come from behind at home to take points from plucky visitors. It was the sixth time the visiting side had scored first against Nigel Pearson’s side at the Walkers Stadium. Away from home the opposition have scored first on only three occasions.

Perhaps the expectation at home is too high? Or perhaps some teams have some across a useful strategy. The evidence here is mixed. Some teams who have opened up at the Walkers have been destroyed. Huddersfield and Peterborough spring to mind. Yet Swindon and now Colchester have proved in recent weeks that there are points to be gained by playing with a little adventure, instead of just fear, at the Walkers.

Paul Dickov secured a point with his second league goal of the season. Limited playing time has meant Dickov has managed just seven shots in League One this season. Still, five of them have been on target meaning he has a better strike rate than any other player at the club.

The Week Ahead
Much has been made of Peterborough United recent good run, but of the five sides they’ve dispatched in the last few weeks only Scunthorpe Utd could have been expected to put up a fight against genuine promotion challengers.

Posh haven’t been out of the top six in all of 2009. Before Leicester went on their own record breaking 23 match unbeaten run it was the London Road outfit who had the longest unbeaten streak in League One, a very impressive 16 matches. Recently though things are a little more patchy. Since Valentines day Darren Ferguson’s side have won three and lost two at home.

The surprise home defeats to both Yeovil and Southend might have sent the club on course for a mediocre end to the season. Instead it appears to have galvanised the side. Peterborough despatched Northampton Town at home despite playing most of the game with only 10 men. There’s no doubt that this sort of grit will be on display again on Saturday as Peterborough try to get over the 4-0 reverse at the Walkers Stadium from earlier in the season.

With this being a lunchtime encounter it’s time to trot out the numbers for anyone thinking of placing any serious money on a Leicester victory.

Leicester City’s record in matches kicking off before 15:00 since 2002/03
P18 W2 D4 L13 F12 A29

Consider yourselves warned.

On This Day
Tom Dryburgh netter for City after just 10 seconds against Swansea in a 2-1 victory in 1953. It was a club record that would stand for 53 years until Matty Fryatt opened the scoring against Preston North End on 15th April 2006 after just nine seconds.

The march to promotion continues...

Millwall is still an intimidating place to visit. The police take no chances and fans were forced to wait nearly an hour after the final whistle before being allowed to head to the train station. As the game wore on and it become clear that the Lions would not pose much of a threat the travelling support broke into a chorus of “You’re not scaring anyone”. They were right. In this division Leicester now no longer have anyone left to fear.

The Week That Was
It was surprising just how similar the match at the New Den was to game at the Walkers Stadium. Two scrappy matches were settled with around 20 minutes on the clock by rare pieces of quality finishing. Few chances for either side in the remainder of the match made for a stale spectacle, but at least this time the result was much more pleasing.

Steve Howard now has 13 goals for the season, 11 short of his career best 24 goals for Luton in 2001/02 and six fewer than the 19 he managed for Derby in 2006/07. His strike partner Matty Fryatt has four goals in his last 12 games.

The Week Ahead
Leicester host Colchester United on Saturday, a side who haven’t really settled at their new stadium but have found travelling around League One much more pleasurable. Colchester have eight wins on the road and just five defeats. They are one of only three sides in the division with more wins away than at home, the others being Leyton Orient and Yeovil Town.

In another obstinate gesture to statistical convention the U’s are far stronger in the first half than the second. In League One this season there have been 544 goals scored in the first half and 691 following the change of ends. Paul Lambert’s side have managed to invert this to such an extent that if matches finished at half time Colchester would be sitting pretty in the play-offs. The U’s have scored 27 first half goals and 24 in the second period. Compare that with Leicester who have struck 29 times in the first 45 minutes and 41 times after the break and you’ll see the scale of Colchester’s problems this season. The U’s go to bits after half time.

For Leicester, the important thing at the moment appears to be keeping a clean sheet. In the last eight matches Leicester have only won when they shut out the opposition. Four score draws in that period have I’m sure made anyone with City’s number on the pools very happy indeed.

On This Day
Marcus Bent’s late header on this day in 2004 cancelled out Wayne Rooney’s opener for Everton as City’s battle against the drop looked like being a successful one. The result left the Foxes three points clear of the relegation zone. But the day was a sombre one after it was announced that a 40-year-old fan on his way to the match had died after being struck by flying debris from a building close to the Walkers Stadium.

Inevitability

Last week I mentioned to Rob Henton of Foxpodder that City would lose a match before the end of the season. At the time I didn’t think this was a particularly risky prediction to make, but given that the Leicester Mercury had once again hailed City as invincible it needed to be said. To be fair I thought City would manage a draw at Prenton Park, the trips to Millwall and Peterborough were much more concerning.

Foxblogger is taking on a new structure. Due to increasing work commitments it will now be updated once a week, usually on Thursdays, with a look back at the last week and a preview of the next seven days. If you have any comments on features you’d like to see in the blog, please let me know.

The Week That Was
The visit of Martin Allen’s Cheltenham provided easy predictions for pundits everywhere. The only sport in this match was in predicting how many City would score. Cheltenham have conceded twice as many goals in the second half as the first, so you could make the case that Leicester took their foot off the accelerator after half-time (Matt Oakley’s goal in particular was scored almost at walking pace). Leicester’s domination was total. The Foxes had 60% of the ball, five times as many attempts as the Robins and 10 times as many on target.

The situation could not have been more different at Tranmere as City’s club record 23 match unbeaten run was surrendered without any real fight. As it turns out, the result shouldn’t have been such a surprise. Rovers have the second best home record in League One (behind City of course) and have conceded just 17 goals at home. Leicester seemed to lack any creative spark with Joe Mattock on the left and to be fair to the teenager it’s clearly not his position. Somehow his replacement, Max Gradel, managed to be the player who committed the most fouls by Leicester on the night, despite only being on the pitch for 30 minutes.

The Week Ahead
City take their sixth keeper of the season along with the rest of the now no longer unbeaten squad to the New Den to face the only team in League One who can still do the double over City. The Foxes put in one of their most uninspiring appearances of the season at home to Kenny Jacket’s side in September to slip to what would be their lowest position of the season, sixth.

City were simply bullied out of what was always going to be a physical game, and one would hope Nigel Pearson has prepared his side for the brute force of the Lions this time around. In the reverse fixture at the Walkers Stadium Millwall committed 19 fouls, the most any team has managed at the Walkers this season. Millwall’s disciplinary record is pretty dreadful. The Lions have committed the most fouls (514) and been show more yellow cards than any other side (73). They’ve also picked up six red cards, including one at the Walkers.

Like Tranmere, Millwall have only conceded 17 at home. The Lions have only been beaten four times on their own patch with MK Dons, Scunthorpe, Brighton and Oldham taking maximum points. Leicester might fancy their chances more knowing that 3 of the top six have already won here and that Millwall have won just one of their last five home matches.

But the Lions have shown a dramatic improvement in form since February. Three successive wins in March have put to bed fears that the wheels were falling off their promotion bandwagon after they took just 14 points from 11 games after Christmas. And whilst no-one in Millwall’s squad has scored more than 10 goals this season Leicester will need to take note of the 9 league strikes the Lions have made in the last 5 minutes.

Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

What is so remarkable about Leicester’s five draws in their last six games is not the record itself, but that during this period no side has been able to make significant inroads into City’s 12 point cushion at the top of League One. MK Dons, the side who looked poised to take advantage of any Leicester slips have themselves only won three of their last eight games. Given that sort of form, does anyone really believe Roberto Di Matteo’s side will win all three of their games in hand?

A convincing home victory over Martin Allen’s Cheltenham will steady any jangling, and to be honest, unwarranted nerves.

Key Stats
Last week we saw how Leicester City and MK Dons dominated in almost every positive statistic. Cheltenham have managed completely the opposite this season. The Robins have won just six points away from home this season, managing just one away win at Leyton Orient (the side with League One’s worst home record). A winless streak of 13 matches stretches all the way back to that win at Bisbane Road in December. It will be the divisions longest sequence without a win this season if the Robins fail to win at the Walkers Stadium.

Cheltenham have conceded a staggering 74 goals this season, only seven short of last season’s worst defense in League One, Port Vale. Martin Allen’s men have kept just four clean sheets and failed to find the net themselves in 12 matches.

No less than 42 different players have played in a Cheltenham Town shirt this season. In a desperate attempt to save the Robins from the drop Martin Allen has made 16 loan signings, something which can have done very little for team spirit or cohesion. Cheltenham have played 35 league matches this season, but only one player, Scott Brown, has started more than 20 of them.

There really are no excuses for anything but three points.

On This Day
Leicester City have not played on the 7th March for more than 20 years. Their last match on this day was a 4-0 away defeat at The Dell in1986/87. Southampton left the Foxes two points from safety in the First Division relegation zone - 12 games later they were relegated by that very margin. The Foxes would not see top flight football again until 1994.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 3/10 (boylesports)
Draw – 9/2 (sportingbet)
Cheltenham – 11/1 (bet365)

Match Preview: Stockport County

Unfortunately I haven’t the time to produce a full match preview but I do have a few seconds to share the following information.

Leicester City will be safe from relegation if;
1) They win against Stockport
2) They draw and either Swindon Town or Hereford United fail to win
3) They lose, but at least two of Swindon, Hereford and Briton and Hove Albion fail to win.

If the Foxes are victorious tomorrow they will finish this season no lower than 16th.

So now you know. Enjoy the game.