Match Preview: Bristol Rovers

In the last entry this blog made the comparison between Leicester’s recent form and “The Stutter Rap”. Before we go any further an apology should be made to Tony Hawks and his compatriots for such a wildly off-base assessment. “The Stutter Rap” made it to number one.

What made Tuesday’s defeat hard to take was the resurfacing of an all too familiar trait, once again Leicester were guilty of throwing points away. In 2003/04 City lost 28 points from winning positions, conceding 10 in the last five minutes that season. In 2004/05 Leicester dropped 31 points, enough to have seen them promoted automatically that year. In 2005/06 the Foxes dropped 21 points, then 24 points were lost in 2006/07. In 2007/08 the Foxes only shipped 13 points, but the figure is distorted, Leicester only scored the first goal in 16 matches last season.

This year Nigel Pearson’s men have surrendered leads on two occasions, costing five points. For the sake of promotion, we should hope that the second half at Brighton will prove to be the exception and not the rule.

Previous Meetings
Leicester City haven’t met Bristol Rovers since 1993. In their last meeting on Leicester turf the Pirates took all three points from Filbert Street in a 1-0 win. It has been five matches, or 18 years, since City last beat Bristol Rovers, the score was 3-2 that day in 1990.

Reasons To Be Confident
Despite their impressive form, Bristol Rovers have just one away win to their name this season.

The Pirates have conceded the first goal on eight occasions this season, coming back to win only once.

Rovers have thrown away exactly as many points from winning positions as Leicester, five.

Reasons To Be Worried
Bristol Rovers come into the match as League One’s form side. They have four wins and one draw to their name in October.

Bristol Rovers and League One’s top scorers, with 29 goals this season. Rovers also possess League One’s top scorer. Rickie Lambert has clocked a mightily impressive 15 goals already this season, with six in his last three games.

Only three teams (Leyton Orient, Stockport County and Hereford Utd) have scored fewer goals at home than Leicester this season. Leicester’s tally of eight in six home matches compares rather badly with Hartlepool Utd, Danny Wilson's side have netted 20 times already in front of their own fans.

On This Day
For the second season running Leicester conceded late at Newcastle United to be denied victory. An Alan Shearer hat-trick in 13 minutes had destroyed Leicester’s 3-1 advantage the previous season. This time it was John Beresford who saved the Magpies from defeat with a powerful header at the back post to make the final score 3-3. To make matters worse, Emile Heskey got himself sent off after losing his temper with Philippe Albert. Few could blame him.

Selected Odds
Leicester 8/11 (Boylesports)
Draw 13/5 (Betfred)
Bristol Rovers 9/2 (Bet365)

Match Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion

One of my first memories lower league football involves Brighton & Hove Albion. The club were battling to avoid relegation to the Conference and faced Hereford at home needing to avoid defeat in order to survive in the Football League at the Bulls expense. In their last ever game at the Goldstone Ground, The Seagulls managed a 1-1 draw, enough to survive on goals scored. For reasons that will become apparent later, Micky Adams will be glad such metrics are no longer used in league tables.

Previous Meetings
Leicester last trip to the Withdean Staduim came in February 2006. Early strikes from Paddy McCarthy and Ian Hume put the Foxes 2-0 up inside five minutes. Despite a second half goal from Alexandre Frutos, City held on for a 2-1 win.

The Withdean has proven a fruitful hunting ground in recent years. Leicester have taken seven points in their last three visits to Brighton’s “temporary” home. Brighton haven’t beaten Leicester at home in the League since 1991.

Reasons To Be Confident
Brighton have managed just 13 goals in 13 league games this season. Only three teams in League One (Yeovil, Leyton Orient and Hereford) have proven more inept in this department.

The Seagulls are now 10 games without a win in League One, the longest winless sequence in the division. Better yet for City, Brighton are yet to win a league match in front of their own fans in 2008/09.

Brighton have not scored in the last three games. Only one player, Glenn Murray, has scored for Brighton in their last seven league outings.

Reasons To Be Worried
Three successive draws have begun to raise doubts within the Leicester faithful. Whilst it probably helps Leicester to play away from home at the moment, you have to wonder whether a few of the younger players are starting to feel some pressure.

Despite failing to score in their last three games, it should be noted that Brighton also only conceded one goal in that same period. Leicester cannot afford to waste their chances.

When you need a win, it does not bode well to travel to League One’s draw experts. Brighton have seven draws (including three goalless draws) to their name already this campaign, over 40% of the way towards matching Bristol Rovers’ 17 draws of 2007/08.

On This Day
Goals from Muzzy Izzet and Arnar Gunnlaugsson silenced the Rams on this day in 2000 as Leicester climbed to third in the Premier League table. Rory Delap, who had yet to discover his abilities as conjurer of enormous throw-ins, gave Derby the lead in the 12th minute. Peter Taylor’s side fought back to leave City on 19 points from 11 games. Derby remained bottom.

Selected Odds
Brighton – 9/4 (Bet365)
Draw – 12/5 (Paddy Power)
Leicester – 5/4 (Betfred)

Match Review: Leicester City 0-0 Northampton Town

Leicester’s third consecutive draw was played in front of 22,795 at the Walkers Stadium. City’s second highest crown of the season were treated to the Foxes second worst performance at home. In musical terms, Leicester’s season has gone from sounding like “Things can only get better” to the “Stutter Rap”.

Here are some numbers…

3 – Its been two years since Leicester recorded three consecutive league draws. In September Rob Kelly’s side took a point at Sunderland, were held to one at home to Colchester and then snatched an equalised in a 1-1 draw with Birmingham. It was the start of a run which saw the Foxes go eight games unbeaten. Leicester need to avoid defeat at Brighton to equal that record.

3 – This is the third time Leicester have failed to get themselves on the score sheet in League One this season. Every member of the top five has managed to score on more occasions than Leicester. Scunthorpe Utd have yet to be denied a goal in League One this season.

6 – The number of points Leicester have won in October. It leaves them with the 14th best record in League One this month. Bristol Rovers are League One’s form team with 13 points, 10 goals and no defeats since the start of the month.

Match Preview: Northampton Town

Just 35.8 miles separate Sixfields from the Walkers Stadium, making this the most local of Leicester’s derby matches this season. After two consecutive draws, Leicester will be hoping to prove the wheels are still well and truly screwed into position with three points at home to the Cobblers. As we learned on Tuesday however, there is no such thing as a routine win.

Previous Meetings
Leicester have played Northampton town on just three occasions. The last meeting between the two sides came in the FA Cup ten years ago. Marshall, Parker, Savage and Cottee each scored to give Martin O’Neil’s men a comfortable 4-0 win.

Before that there were two league meetings in the 1965/66 season. Both matches ended all square.

Reasons To Be Confident
Only one team has defeated Nigel Pearson’s side in League One this season. The Foxes are currently the hardest side to beat in the division. Scunthorpe and Millwall both have two losses to their name.

Leicester City and Oldham Athletic are currently tied for the most clean sheets in League One. Both sides have five each.

Northampton have a very respectable record at home, but on their travels have picked up just one win so far in League One.

Reasons To Be Worried
Northampton have shown they can rise to the big occasion this season. If Leicester fans believe the many sides will treat their visit to the Walkers Stadium like a cup final, it seems only fair to peruse the Cobbler’s cup record. This year Northampton excelled in the Carling Cup with wins at Millwall and Bolton. They were minutes away from toppling Sunderland on their own turf too. A well-motivated Stuart Gray side could prove very stiff opposition.

Before the defeat at Swindon, Northampton had gone four matches unbeaten, winning the last three. Their last result, much like City’s, can be viewed in terms of a blip. So far this month Northampton have the second best record in League One.

Striker Adebayo Akinfenwa is fit. The 5’ 11” centre forward is Northampton’s main, some might say only, goal threat. Akinfenwa has eight this season in all competitions for his club, including four in the last five games.

On This Day
Leicester raced into a 3-0 half time lead at Molineux on this day in 2003. By full time, Wolves had somehow come back to win 4-3. At that moment most Leicester fans probably realised City’s return to the top flight would be a short lived affair.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 4/6 (VC Bet)
Draw – 13/5 (Bet365)
Northampton – 5/1 (Bet365)

Match Review: Leicester City 2-2 Walsall

For 70 minutes or so the SkyBet price of 5/1 for a Walsall victory was looking remarkably good, thankfully Aleksander Tunchev had other ideas. Despite slipping to third, Leicester remain two points off top spot with a game in hand. If you fancy a hyperbolic statement, these two successive draws constitute City’s worst run of the season so far.

There are some more realistic statistics below…

6 –The number of goals Leicester have scored from set pieces this season, that's 30% of City’s total for 2008/09.

6 – The number of games Leicester have gone undefeated. This is Leicester’s best undefeated sequence since an 8 match unbeaten run under Rob Kelly in 2006. It is not, however, the best record in League One. Scunthorpe have now gone 10 games without defeat.

19 – The percentage of shots with which Andy King has scored. Steve Howard has scored with 7% of his attempts on goal.

Match Preview: Walsall

Leicester are entering some serious fixture congestion. The Foxes will play two games every week until at least the middle of November. It’s fortunate that many absentees are returning to fitness just in time for the calendar crunch. Paul Dickov, Patrick Kisnorbo and Joe Mattock are all back fit and available for selection, leaving Nigel Pearson with one of those headaches he probably doesn’t mind all too much.

Previous Meetings
Leicester and Walsall only met five times in the 20th Century, with the Foxes winning four. The most recent meetings between the two sides came in City’s last successful promotion campaign. At the end of the season the two teams made for separate exits from Division One.

Second half goals from Matt Heath and James Scowcroft were enough to cast Walsall aside at the Walkers Stadium in November 2002. The Walsall team that day contained former City man Steve Corica. This time it will be a Fox facing his old club as Matty Fryatt aims to put one past his former employers.

Reasons To Be Confident
Walsall’s 9th position in League One does appear to be something of a false one. The Saddlers only played three sides in the top half and eight in the bottom half.

Walsall also appear to be in something of a slump. Jimmy Mullen’s men have only taken one point from the last nine and threw away a 2-0 half-time lead at home to Hartlepool this weekend, losing 3-2.

In contrast, Leicester are unbeaten in five matches, with a winning streak of four games only interrupted by the point at Oldham on Saturday.

Reasons To Be Worried
Walsall haven’t lost away from home since August and have only conceded four goals on their travels this season. Expect a tight game.

There appear to be few other statistical reasons to back Walsall. Foxblogger dislikes intangibles, especially as footballs have developed a tendency to hit the woodwork multiple times in quick succession this weekend. We’ve yet to see a real freak occurrence involving Leicester this season, but there is always time for a first.

Sky Bet have Walsall down at 5/1 for a win. That’s extremely generous in a two horse race. Hedge fund managers may not be all that popular at the moment, but hedge betting here could net a tidy profit. If you can deal with betting against your own side, this might be worth it.

On This Day
Leicester recorded their last win to date at Bramall Lane on this day in 1995. David Lowe, Iwan Roberts and Scott Taylor were on target for the Foxes as their imperious away record under Mark McGhee continued with a 3-1 victory against the Blades.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 4/6 (Boylesports)
Draw – 11/4 (Bet365)
Walsall – 5/1 (SkyBet)

Match Review: Oldham Athletic 1-1 Leicester City

Despite being pegged back at Boundary Park and not winning five in a row for the first time in five years, this should be looked on as a useful point for City. The Foxes can still go top of the pile with their game in hand.

The return of Patrick Kisnorbo is wonderful news. Those who saw his injury in Leicester’s final home game last season probably thought the Australian would be out of action until Christmas and possibly beyond. With Joe Mattock back in contention too the competition for places in the sternest backline in League One will be fierce. That can only be good for the promotion campaign.

Here are some numbers…

6 – The number of games Steve Howard had to wait to bag his 2nd league goal of the season. Howard found himself in acres of space to head in Lloyd Dyer’s centre and give the Foxes the lead. Howard also hit the woodwork for the first time this season. After a string of disallowed strikes the former Derby man must have been wondering if his luck would ever change.

8 – The number of Championship games involving Leicester that finished 1-1 in 2007/08. It was City’s most common result last season. Yesterday’s match was the first time in this campaign Leicester had finished a game with three points for the pools. 0-0 and 0-1 were the joint second most frequent results in 2007/08, occurring seven times apiece. What a miserable season that was.

1 – Yesterday was the first time in 2008/09 that Leicester had scored first and failed to win. Whitaker’s splendid equaliser ensured that these were Leicester’s first dropped points of the season. In 2007/08, City dropped 13 points from winning positions.

18 – The number of goals Leicester have scored this season. Only one team in the top half has scored less, Stockport County.