Mathematical Certainty

There is nothing more pleasing to Foxblogger than an absolute mathematical certainty, so here’s one that should cheer any Leicester fan. With a win on Saturday against Peterborough, Leicester will be guaranteed a place in the play-offs at the end of the season. Should Leicester fail to win they will have to rely on Tranmere Rovers failing to win at Brighton. The play-offs may not be what this season is all about, but it’s another sign that with seven matches still to play Leicester are on the verge of returning to the Championship at the first attempt. Want to know how hard that is? Ask Nottingham Forrest, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds…

The Week That Was
City once again had to come from behind at home to take points from plucky visitors. It was the sixth time the visiting side had scored first against Nigel Pearson’s side at the Walkers Stadium. Away from home the opposition have scored first on only three occasions.

Perhaps the expectation at home is too high? Or perhaps some teams have some across a useful strategy. The evidence here is mixed. Some teams who have opened up at the Walkers have been destroyed. Huddersfield and Peterborough spring to mind. Yet Swindon and now Colchester have proved in recent weeks that there are points to be gained by playing with a little adventure, instead of just fear, at the Walkers.

Paul Dickov secured a point with his second league goal of the season. Limited playing time has meant Dickov has managed just seven shots in League One this season. Still, five of them have been on target meaning he has a better strike rate than any other player at the club.

The Week Ahead
Much has been made of Peterborough United recent good run, but of the five sides they’ve dispatched in the last few weeks only Scunthorpe Utd could have been expected to put up a fight against genuine promotion challengers.

Posh haven’t been out of the top six in all of 2009. Before Leicester went on their own record breaking 23 match unbeaten run it was the London Road outfit who had the longest unbeaten streak in League One, a very impressive 16 matches. Recently though things are a little more patchy. Since Valentines day Darren Ferguson’s side have won three and lost two at home.

The surprise home defeats to both Yeovil and Southend might have sent the club on course for a mediocre end to the season. Instead it appears to have galvanised the side. Peterborough despatched Northampton Town at home despite playing most of the game with only 10 men. There’s no doubt that this sort of grit will be on display again on Saturday as Peterborough try to get over the 4-0 reverse at the Walkers Stadium from earlier in the season.

With this being a lunchtime encounter it’s time to trot out the numbers for anyone thinking of placing any serious money on a Leicester victory.

Leicester City’s record in matches kicking off before 15:00 since 2002/03
P18 W2 D4 L13 F12 A29

Consider yourselves warned.

On This Day
Tom Dryburgh netter for City after just 10 seconds against Swansea in a 2-1 victory in 1953. It was a club record that would stand for 53 years until Matty Fryatt opened the scoring against Preston North End on 15th April 2006 after just nine seconds.

The march to promotion continues...

Millwall is still an intimidating place to visit. The police take no chances and fans were forced to wait nearly an hour after the final whistle before being allowed to head to the train station. As the game wore on and it become clear that the Lions would not pose much of a threat the travelling support broke into a chorus of “You’re not scaring anyone”. They were right. In this division Leicester now no longer have anyone left to fear.

The Week That Was
It was surprising just how similar the match at the New Den was to game at the Walkers Stadium. Two scrappy matches were settled with around 20 minutes on the clock by rare pieces of quality finishing. Few chances for either side in the remainder of the match made for a stale spectacle, but at least this time the result was much more pleasing.

Steve Howard now has 13 goals for the season, 11 short of his career best 24 goals for Luton in 2001/02 and six fewer than the 19 he managed for Derby in 2006/07. His strike partner Matty Fryatt has four goals in his last 12 games.

The Week Ahead
Leicester host Colchester United on Saturday, a side who haven’t really settled at their new stadium but have found travelling around League One much more pleasurable. Colchester have eight wins on the road and just five defeats. They are one of only three sides in the division with more wins away than at home, the others being Leyton Orient and Yeovil Town.

In another obstinate gesture to statistical convention the U’s are far stronger in the first half than the second. In League One this season there have been 544 goals scored in the first half and 691 following the change of ends. Paul Lambert’s side have managed to invert this to such an extent that if matches finished at half time Colchester would be sitting pretty in the play-offs. The U’s have scored 27 first half goals and 24 in the second period. Compare that with Leicester who have struck 29 times in the first 45 minutes and 41 times after the break and you’ll see the scale of Colchester’s problems this season. The U’s go to bits after half time.

For Leicester, the important thing at the moment appears to be keeping a clean sheet. In the last eight matches Leicester have only won when they shut out the opposition. Four score draws in that period have I’m sure made anyone with City’s number on the pools very happy indeed.

On This Day
Marcus Bent’s late header on this day in 2004 cancelled out Wayne Rooney’s opener for Everton as City’s battle against the drop looked like being a successful one. The result left the Foxes three points clear of the relegation zone. But the day was a sombre one after it was announced that a 40-year-old fan on his way to the match had died after being struck by flying debris from a building close to the Walkers Stadium.

Inevitability

Last week I mentioned to Rob Henton of Foxpodder that City would lose a match before the end of the season. At the time I didn’t think this was a particularly risky prediction to make, but given that the Leicester Mercury had once again hailed City as invincible it needed to be said. To be fair I thought City would manage a draw at Prenton Park, the trips to Millwall and Peterborough were much more concerning.

Foxblogger is taking on a new structure. Due to increasing work commitments it will now be updated once a week, usually on Thursdays, with a look back at the last week and a preview of the next seven days. If you have any comments on features you’d like to see in the blog, please let me know.

The Week That Was
The visit of Martin Allen’s Cheltenham provided easy predictions for pundits everywhere. The only sport in this match was in predicting how many City would score. Cheltenham have conceded twice as many goals in the second half as the first, so you could make the case that Leicester took their foot off the accelerator after half-time (Matt Oakley’s goal in particular was scored almost at walking pace). Leicester’s domination was total. The Foxes had 60% of the ball, five times as many attempts as the Robins and 10 times as many on target.

The situation could not have been more different at Tranmere as City’s club record 23 match unbeaten run was surrendered without any real fight. As it turns out, the result shouldn’t have been such a surprise. Rovers have the second best home record in League One (behind City of course) and have conceded just 17 goals at home. Leicester seemed to lack any creative spark with Joe Mattock on the left and to be fair to the teenager it’s clearly not his position. Somehow his replacement, Max Gradel, managed to be the player who committed the most fouls by Leicester on the night, despite only being on the pitch for 30 minutes.

The Week Ahead
City take their sixth keeper of the season along with the rest of the now no longer unbeaten squad to the New Den to face the only team in League One who can still do the double over City. The Foxes put in one of their most uninspiring appearances of the season at home to Kenny Jacket’s side in September to slip to what would be their lowest position of the season, sixth.

City were simply bullied out of what was always going to be a physical game, and one would hope Nigel Pearson has prepared his side for the brute force of the Lions this time around. In the reverse fixture at the Walkers Stadium Millwall committed 19 fouls, the most any team has managed at the Walkers this season. Millwall’s disciplinary record is pretty dreadful. The Lions have committed the most fouls (514) and been show more yellow cards than any other side (73). They’ve also picked up six red cards, including one at the Walkers.

Like Tranmere, Millwall have only conceded 17 at home. The Lions have only been beaten four times on their own patch with MK Dons, Scunthorpe, Brighton and Oldham taking maximum points. Leicester might fancy their chances more knowing that 3 of the top six have already won here and that Millwall have won just one of their last five home matches.

But the Lions have shown a dramatic improvement in form since February. Three successive wins in March have put to bed fears that the wheels were falling off their promotion bandwagon after they took just 14 points from 11 games after Christmas. And whilst no-one in Millwall’s squad has scored more than 10 goals this season Leicester will need to take note of the 9 league strikes the Lions have made in the last 5 minutes.

Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

What is so remarkable about Leicester’s five draws in their last six games is not the record itself, but that during this period no side has been able to make significant inroads into City’s 12 point cushion at the top of League One. MK Dons, the side who looked poised to take advantage of any Leicester slips have themselves only won three of their last eight games. Given that sort of form, does anyone really believe Roberto Di Matteo’s side will win all three of their games in hand?

A convincing home victory over Martin Allen’s Cheltenham will steady any jangling, and to be honest, unwarranted nerves.

Key Stats
Last week we saw how Leicester City and MK Dons dominated in almost every positive statistic. Cheltenham have managed completely the opposite this season. The Robins have won just six points away from home this season, managing just one away win at Leyton Orient (the side with League One’s worst home record). A winless streak of 13 matches stretches all the way back to that win at Bisbane Road in December. It will be the divisions longest sequence without a win this season if the Robins fail to win at the Walkers Stadium.

Cheltenham have conceded a staggering 74 goals this season, only seven short of last season’s worst defense in League One, Port Vale. Martin Allen’s men have kept just four clean sheets and failed to find the net themselves in 12 matches.

No less than 42 different players have played in a Cheltenham Town shirt this season. In a desperate attempt to save the Robins from the drop Martin Allen has made 16 loan signings, something which can have done very little for team spirit or cohesion. Cheltenham have played 35 league matches this season, but only one player, Scott Brown, has started more than 20 of them.

There really are no excuses for anything but three points.

On This Day
Leicester City have not played on the 7th March for more than 20 years. Their last match on this day was a 4-0 away defeat at The Dell in1986/87. Southampton left the Foxes two points from safety in the First Division relegation zone - 12 games later they were relegated by that very margin. The Foxes would not see top flight football again until 1994.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 3/10 (boylesports)
Draw – 9/2 (sportingbet)
Cheltenham – 11/1 (bet365)

Match Preview: Stockport County

Unfortunately I haven’t the time to produce a full match preview but I do have a few seconds to share the following information.

Leicester City will be safe from relegation if;
1) They win against Stockport
2) They draw and either Swindon Town or Hereford United fail to win
3) They lose, but at least two of Swindon, Hereford and Briton and Hove Albion fail to win.

If the Foxes are victorious tomorrow they will finish this season no lower than 16th.

So now you know. Enjoy the game.

Match Preview: MK Dons

It’s not been 30 years of hurt, but it has been 29 years since Leicester City were last promoted as Champions. Saturday’s trip to MK Dons presents the last realistic hope for any team to catch Nigel Pearson’s side. Should City leave stadium:mk with a point or three a whole generation of Leicester fans will get to experience what it feels like to be better than all the rest, even if the rest is only League One.

MK Dons are a much improved outfit from the rather shy bunch who arrived at the Walkers Stadium on the opening day of the season and showed City far too much respect. Roberto Di Matteo has placed his impression on the Dons with impressive speed, this will be one of Leicester’s toughest tests of the season.

Key Stats
There is barely a statistic which one of these two sides doesn’t dominate in. Leicester have the most wins, fewest defeats, most clean sheets and League One’s longest undefeated sequence. MK Dons have failed to score in just four matches and the divisions longest winning sequence (6). Leicester and MK Dons have scored the most goals in League One, while Leicester have conceded the fewest.

Despite their lofty position, MK Dons possess only the 9th best home record in League One. Five sides have won at stadium:mk this season, including Leyton Orient. MK Dons have also not fared well in games against the top six, taking just four points from 18.

The most interesting stats to hand demonstrate just how difficult this game is to call. The Dons have dropped a massive 18 points from winning positions this season, yet they’re second only to City when it comes to winning after conceding the first goal. Perhaps one factor that is predictable is late drama. Both Leicester and MK Dons are specialists at late goals. The Foxes have scored nine in the last five minutes, the Dons have netted 10.

On This Day
Stuart Wilson, Muzzy Izzet and Rob Ullathorne struck for City in an impressive second-half display at Ewood Park on this day in 1998. It was just a shame that the Foxes were already 5-0 down when they finally managed to get going. It was probably a day when the Foxes should have known when to quit.

Selected Odds
MK Dons – 13/8 (Coral)
Draw – 12/5 (bet365)
Leicester – 7/4 (SkyBet)

Match Review: Bristol Rovers 0-1 Leicester City

With the Foxes standing 12 points clear at the top of League One and 16 points from third placed Peterborough Utd many City fans are asking “can anybody catch Leicester now”? Well, the answer, statistically speaking, is yes. Cheltenham are the only side in League One who can no longer climb higher than the Foxes and in fact, unlike Manchester Untied, Nigel Pearson’s side are not yet mathematically safe from relegation.

Still, the numbers are overwhelmingly in Leicester’s favour. City are still on target to reach more than 100 points this season and more club records could be smashed before May.

Here are some other numbers…

2 – City hadn’t conceded a penalty all season, then two come along in a week. The last City keeper to stop a spot kick was Paul Henderson. He saved from Sheffield Wednesday’s Deon Burton in the final home match of 2007/08. Leicester conceded five penalties last season.

1 – Jack Hobbs’ dismissal was Leicester’s first of the season. The last City player to get his marching orders was Patrick Kisnorbo after he lasted just 10 minutes at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United in April 2008. Kisnorbo’s red card was rescinded upon appeal, but its unlikely Hobbs will escape a ban.

125 – The number of shots Matty Fryatt has taken this season, the most of any player in League One. His 21 goal return on this effort means Fryatt scores once in every six attempts. At the season’s halfway stage, he was scoring a goal with every fifth attempt.