The race for the play-offs

After yesterdays excellent result against fellow play-off chasers, Leicester’s promotion push looks destined to extend the Foxes’ season for the first time since 1995/96.

But as any Foxes fan should know, there will be sides who hit form at just the right time to steal that play-off spot from any team that takes its foot off the gas. I say Foxes fans should know this because this is exactly what Leicester did in 1995/96. On 20th March 1996 Martin O’Neil’s men were 10th, four points behind 6th placed Ipswich. But following a run which brought seven wins and 22 points from their final 10 league matches, City finished 5th. We all know what followed.

This time however, it’s different. City hold a seven point cushion on 7th place and a game in hand over Ian Holloway’s Blackpool. In short, a play-off place is Leicester’s to lose.

How likely is it that Leicester will hold on to their play-off spot? The past five seasons seem to point in City’s favour, 15 of the last 20 teams to hold a play-off position at this stage of the season have managed to remain in the top six. But there are some horror stories too…

2008/09 – Cardiff City

Cardiff City have gained a very unwanted reputation as end of season bottlers. Last season provided perhaps the best example yet of Cardiff’s inability to close the deal.

The Bluebirds had been in the play-off positions since 30th November and on Easter Monday 2009 lay 4th, eight points clear of 7th place. Dave Jones’ side then proceeded to take just one point from their final 4 games, including a 6-0 defeat to Preston, the team who went on to replace Cardiff in the play-offs on goals scored.

2007/08 – Plymouth Argyle, Charlton Athletic

After 36 games both Plymouth and Charlton were occupying playoff positions, but the Pilgrims took just 9 points from their final 10 matches and Charlton managed a return of just 8 points from 30. Unsurprisingly such pitiful end of season form (relegated Leicester took 12 points from their final 10 games) was not enough to maintain their league position. Plymouth and Charlton finished the season in 10th and 11th respectively.

That said, the race for the play-offs has also proven to be quite sedate in other years. In the 2005/06 season the sides who occupied the play-off positions on 2nd January did so for the rest of the season with the exception of just one weekend. That year automatic promotion, play-off and relegation places were settled with 3 games of the season remaining. That would be nice, wouldn’t it?

Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 Leicester City

Leon Clarke’s brace, his first in 12 months, secured a comfortable victory for the Owls against a lacklustre City side. Clarke, who had placed the penultimate nail in Leicester’s 2008 relegation coffin with the third goal of Wednesday’s 3-1 win at the Walkers, ensured another miserable afternoon for the Foxes.

Clarke’s first, a sweetly struck drive from 12 yards gave the home side a 6th minute lead. City failed to heed a first minute warning when Chris Weale was tested from a similar angle. This time the City keeper could do nothing as Clarke’s strike fizzed into the roof of the net.

City were one game short of a nine match unbeaten run, a record which would have been their best at Championship level since 2002/03. But the Foxes never looked likely to snatch even a share of the spoils.

Nigel Pearson’s unchanged eleven were barely recognisable as the side that had thumped Forest just seven days earlier. Martyn Waghorn has proven fruitful on the road with five of his seven goals coming away from home, but the Sunderland loanee found himself in the pocket of Darren Purse all afternoon. Championship player of the month Paul Gallagher provided little and was eventually substituted. The midfield trio of Oakley, Wellens and King failed establish any authority on the game.

What attacking flair City did show came down the left. Lloyd Dyer made a nuisance of himself in the first half, getting in behind the Wednesday backline to create chances for Gallagher and Waghorn, the latter forcing an excellent save from Wednesday keeper Lee Grant. But there the few signs of encouragement ended. Weale left the pitch on the half hour with a wound sustained in a collision with Marcus Tudgay.

In the second half City resorted to artless hoofs from deep. Wayne Brown led this industrial approach from the back, bypassing the midfield in favour of 40-yard balls that did not make up for in accuracy what they lacked in imagination.

By the time a forward whose attributes suited this tactic took the field in the shape of Steve Howard, Clarke had grabbed his second. City needlessly gave the ball away and Clarke provided a neat near-post finish from Jermaine Johnson’s low cross.

Late on Dyer produced an excellent save from Grant, but even this did not spark a late rally in front of the Foxes’ sizeable travelling support. City were dead and buried.

The Month in Stats: October

Leicester fans have had plenty to smile about this month. City ended October in their highest league position since relegation from the Premier League in 2002/03, flirted with an international superstar and in the style of all good sides, won games which perhaps they ought not to.

The month began with Nigel Pearson naming his first unchanged side of the season for the trip to Coventry. He subsequently changed his first eleven for every proceeding fixture. Perhaps poetically, Pearson’s unchanged Foxes’ headed back down the M69 with an unchanged result, their fourth draw in five visits to the Sky Blues. But that wasn’t to say there were no surprises. DJ Campbell made his first Leicester appearance since 25th November 2008, a gap of 315 days. He still awaits his first Leicester goal since 16th February 2008.

The home match with Derby brought City another chance to overturn a poor run of recent results against a local rival, but City were unable to break down the Rams who came for and got their point from the Walkers. The last City side to beat Derby lined up as; Walker, Makin, Dabizas, Keown, Wilcox, Scowcroft, Nalis, Williams, Stewart, Connolly, Blake.

Two draws was hardly an ideal start to the month but City soon got the back to winning ways at home to Crystal Palace. It took Paul Gallagher 547 minutes to bag his first Leicester City goal, but the home faithful only had to wait another 22 minutes from his spectacular second. Gallagher’s brace (the fourth of his career) didn’t pave the way for a first career hat-trick but it was enough to put City right in the mix as the Championship’s top nine sides found themselves separated by just three points.

The dismissal of Gareth Southgate from Middlesborough had to bookies pricing Nigel Pearson between 10/1 and 14/1 to be his replacement. Thankfully for City fans any concern was short-lived as Steve Gibson made his preference from Gordon Strachan abundantly clear.

City’s best moments of October came live on Sky Sports, first with a fortunate victory over Reading and followed by a well deserved win at Loftus Road. At Reading, City kept their third consecutive clean sheet, a feat they hadn’t managed since January 2008. Martyn Waghorn celebrated his first ever Leicester City start with a first-half winner, but strike partner Fryatt extended his longest spell without a goal under Nigel Pearson to six games. Thankfully City’s top scorer put this right at QPR with his ninth brace in a Leicester shirt.

Once again, it is City’s defence who deserve praise for Leicester’s excellent form. The Foxes kept three clean sheets in five games and conceded just two goals all month. They also restricted free-scoring QPR to the fewest attempts on goal they have managed in a home game all season.

But it’s also strength and mental toughness that has put City in such an excellent position. Twice the Foxes conceded the first goal this month but took four points from those games. It’s also over a year since Nigel Pearson’s side took the lead in a league game and lost.

Pearson has created a side that will not accept defeat – in the Championship that’s the battle half won.

Shooting Practice

It’s what we should have expected. After four games Leicester’s goals against tally is far more impressive than their goals for total. Before the weekend’s matches Leicester’s two conceded made theirs one of the meanest defences in the Championship, in contrast the Foxes’ four strikes in the opposition net were nothing to write home about.

Matty Fryatt’s two goals have already equalled his Championship total for the 2007/08 season, but in typical Fryatt style it’s taken him 14 attempts to get them. His ratio of one goal to every 7 attempts is the sort of statistic that makes last weeks’ transfer speculation laughable.

You could argue only two players in the Championship have worked the goalkeeper more than Fryatt, who has hit the target on 10 occasions. But this just leads you to ask why, if Fryatt is in positions to work the goalkeeper, aren’t more of his efforts finding their way to the back of the net?

Leicester are at least creating chances at this level. Before this weekend’s games City had managed 54 efforts on goal in four matches, only QPR, Ipswich, West Brom, Bristol City and Crystal Palace bettered that. And compared with their Championship rivals, City have been more accurate than most too. 31 shots on target have been struck by Nigel Pearson’s men, that’s 57.41% of their attempts. Last season the Foxes got 54.28% of their shots on target.

But working the goalkeeper and beating him are two very different things. City will make life much easier for themselves if they can prove more ruthless in front of goal.

However it is possible to mount a promotion challenge without a prolific strike force. Last season Birmingham were promoted having netted just 54 times, the fewest goals for total of any side ever promoted to the Premier League. In contrast during 2008/09 Norwich City scored 57. The difference, of course, was a defence that conceded just 37 compared with one that shipped 70.

If City start a push for promotion, there’s little doubt it will follow the Birmingham blueprint.

Newcastle Utd

The Magpie’s Shola Ameobi has made a terrific start to the campaign scoring twice as many league goals as Leicester’s Fryatt with two fewer attempts (11 against 13). But with Newcastle’s injury worries piling up this might be an opportunity for Leicester to snatch a cheeky three points for the first time at St. James’ Park since 2000. Tony Cottee and Robbie Savage were Leicester’s scorers that day in the twilight hours of the Martin O’Neil era.

Yet, having not conceded since the opening day of the season, Newcastle have proven they are just as difficult to break down as Nigel Pearson’s back four. The goalless draw is priced at 17/2 and any sensible money should placed here.

On This Day – 31st August 1994

Leicester City picked up their first ever Premiership point at home to QPR. The Foxes had lost their opening three matches of the season, scoring once and conceding seven times, and looked to be on the way to another defeat after Jimmy Willis put the ball into his own net. Thankfully for the crowd of 18,695 at Filbert Street a last minute strike from Phil Gee saved City, but they would have to wait until September for their first Premiership win.

100%

Let’s forget about the opening 45 minutes on Saturday and focus on everything that happened after that, it’s been pretty spot on. Leicester have begun in a manner you would hope will hold them in good stead for the rest of the season. They’ve already repeated their oft-performed trick from League One of coming from behind, and professionally dispatched modest opposition in the cup. So far, so good.

The Week That Was

Martin Waghorn became the first Leicester player to score on his debut since Les Ferdinand put one past Southampton in the opening game of Leicester’s last Premier League campaign. In the six intervening years both Matty Fryatt and Steve Howard have scored on their home debuts, but neither became an instant hero.

Chris Powell started his 32nd League Cup tie in what his now his 22nd season in professional football. By contrast his colleagues in the back four o Tuesday night had amassed just 5 League Cup starts between them. City’s back line wasn’t heavily tested at Moss Rose but did earn their first clean sheet of the season. Nigel Pearson’s men managed 19 shutouts in the league and 24 in all competitions in 2008/09.

Ipswich Town

Leicester face two sides who would have expected better from their opening matches this week. First City head to Portman Road, a ground where they’ve won just once in their last 13 league visits. Roy Keane’s men, one of only four sides to lose on the opening weekend, found themselves needing penalties to dispose of Shrewsbury this week. Paint will be peeling from the Ipswich dressing room walls if they fail to perform on Saturday.

Ipswich season ticket holders must have felt cheated by their side last season. Having finished 2007/08 with the best home record in the Championship, the Tractor Boys could only manage the 15th highest ranking in 2008/09. Crucially, Ipswich beat only one of the eight sides who finished above them last season at Portman Road. Not exactly a fortress to be feared.

Sheffield United

City don’t have a great record at Bramall Lane, a 3-1 victory in 1995 has been the Foxes’ only success here in 30 years. But if Port Vale can win here then who knows?

Some people dismiss early season results as meaningless - Sheffield United fans do not. On the opening day last season the Blades travelled to Birmingham City and lost thanks to a 90th minute strike from Kevin Phillips. The difference between the two sides at the end of the season was, you guessed it, three points. Had Kevin Blackwell’s defence kept a clean sheet that day it would have been the Blades opening the season at Old Trafford thanks to their superior goal difference.

Sheffield United haven’t lost a home league game since the Steel City Derby in February, in only one of the matches following that defeat did they fail to score. United’s defensive record is also solid, the second best in the Championship last year. City will need a strong performance to take points away from the divisions 4th favourites.

On This Day - 15th August

Martin O’Neill’s side stunned the Premier League on the opening day of the 1998/99 season by taking a two-goal lead at Old Trafford. Emile Heskey and Tony Cottee silenced the Stretford End only for a deflected Teddy Sheringham effort and a stoppage time David Beckham special to deny Leicester victory.

The Week Ahead

The first game of the season brings about the same old clichés; the nerves, the optimism, the new signings trying to make the best first impression, the managers pretending not to pay attention to the great sack race, the list goes on and on.

But what does the first game of the season mean? Well, if you’re a Leicester fan it should mean a lot…

1993/94 – Leicester City 2-1 Peterborough Utd (Promoted)
1994/95 – Leicester City 1-3 Newcastle Utd (Relegated)
1995/96 – Sunderland 1-2 Leicester City (Promoted)
1996/97 – Sunderland 0-0 Leicester City
1997/98 – Leicester City 1-0 Aston Villa
1998/99 – Manchester Utd 2-2 Leicester City
1999/00 – Arsenal 2-1 Leicester City
2000/01 – Leicester City 0-0 Aston Villa
2001/02 – Leicester City 0-5 Bolton Wanderers (Relegated)
2002/03 – Leicester City 2-0 Watford (Promoted)
2003/04 – Leicester City 2-2 Southampton (Relegated)
2004/05 – Leicester City 0-0 Wet Ham
2005/06 – Sheffield Utd 4-1 Leicester City
2006/07 – Luton Town 2-0 Leicester City
2007/08 – Leicester City 0-1 Blackpool (Relegated)
2008/09 – Leicester City 2-0 MK Dons (Promoted)

At the start of last season I made the point that Leicester City’s start to the season has always had a big impact on the rest of the campaign. But looking at those scorelines you can make the case even simpler. In each season that Leicester have competed outside the Premier League since 1993/94 and won on the opening day they have gone on to win promotion. Just saying…

Swansea City

On the face of it, Swansea could be heading for a tough second season in the Championship. The loss of manager Roberto Martinez to Wigan is a huge blow, as is the Jason Scotland sized hole in the Swans strike force. Jordi Gomez has also followed Matinez to Lancashire, leaving Swansea without strikers who between them accounted for 33 of their 63 league goals. Stephen Dobbie has been drafted in from Queen of the South, but he remains unproven at this level. 47 goals in 74 starts for The Doonhamers is one thing, 20 goals in the Championship is quite another.

Meanwhile manager Paulo Sousa hardly set the Championship on fire with his short spell at QPR last season. That being said, we might find out if he truly is a capable boss this season if rumours of boardroom sting pulling at Loftus Road are true.

Swansea’s 2008/09 season was remarkable for a club record eight consecutive draws, the start of a 13 match undefeated sequence which proved if nothing else that the Swans are difficult to break down. Don’t expect a goal festival.

Macclesfield Town

Leicester haven’t failed to progress to the second round of the League Cup since 1979. Rotherham, conquerors of City in the JPT last season, were the undoing of the Foxes that season. You’ll get pretty long odds on the Silkmen stopping Nigel Pearson’s men. Amazingly Macclesfield’s biggest ever League win is just 3-0.

On This Day – 8th August

City’s miserable start to the 2006/07 campaign continued with a 1-0 home defeat to Burnley. Andy Gray’s header from seven yards was enough to preserve Burnley’s perfect start and continue Leicester’s pointless one. It is the only competitive game Leicester have ever played on the 8th August.

Season Preview

“So why couldn’t Leicester get a sponsor this season?” a friend asked. At least, that’s what I think he said. What I heard was “Couldn’t get a sponsor eh? Blimey, your lot really are a bunch of talentless chumps these days.” It felt like an accusation, a symbol of Leicester’s demise since the glory days of O’Neil, Heskey, Izzet and Elliot.

Last season when the Foxes’ website offered a choice of three slogans to be emblazoned on the front of Leicester’s new kit, we pondered for maybe a second or two and opted for the fourth and least controversial option; keep it blank.

The blank shirt is somewhat befitting of the new management style at the Walkers Stadium; plain, unassuming, unimpressed by prima donnas or fancy Dans. Nigel Pearson, who will quickly become Sir Nigel if he manages the Foxes to successive promotions, said he was pleased with promotion but in a tone which made you doubt he’s every really been satisfied by anything in life. What is clear is that Pearson’s character is exactly what City needed. He’s installed a backbone in the side that neither Martin ‘Mr Angry’ Allen or Ian ‘Happier than a badger in mating season’ Holloway ever managed.

What’s also different this season is that City start 2009/10 with a sense of optimism and stargazing not seen at the club in over a decade. True, Leicester fans don’t have any stars to gaze upon yet, but the Premiership seems a more realistic prospect than another plummet. Last season was the first time since 2002/03 that the Foxes won more games than they lost.

If it transpires Leicester won’t in fact be challenging for the play-offs or, dare I say it, automatic promotion, then there are many other scores which still need settling. For the first time in five seasons the East Midlands has its three major clubs in the same division and bragging rights are on the line. The only crumb of comfort in 2007/08 for Leicester fans in an otherwise dismal season was watching Derby County’s pathetic displays in the Premier League. Leicester may have been poor that year, but the sheep were record-breakingly dreadful. Meanwhile Forest, having clambered out of League One at the third attempt, are well overdue a kicking.

But there are reasons to be worried. With no new strikers on the books goalscoring responsibilities could fall on the unproven shoulders of Matty Fryatt. The 23 year-old might have managed 27 league strikes last term, be he only netted nine of them after Christmas. Alex Fergusson used to complain that Andy Cole needed five chances for every goal he scored. In 2008/09, the Fryastarter needed six.

Time to keep the faith!