Attack and Defense

City have scored six goals and conceded as many in just two matches. At the start of last season it took Nigel Pearson’s side five matches to net six goals and eight games to concede the same number. Meanwhile Paulo Sousa’s Swansea took six games to score six goals and five matches to let in as many. In short, this is not what we expected.

In light of this goal bonanza it’s worth marking the following points of reference for anyone thinking City might be on for a record breaking season up front or at the back. The record number of league goals scored by City in a single season came in 1956/57 when the Foxes scored 109 times. City thoroughly deserved their promotion that year, but the harsh realities of their first season back in the top division led to Leicester shipping more goals than in any season before or since, 112 in total.

In modern times, the 2008/09 promotion campaign (84 goals) is the closest City have come to the record, and even that is only the club's 13th highest scoring season. Meanwhile the 83 goals shipped in the 1990/91 campaign is the club’s worst record in recent history. Coincidentally in both the 1957/58 and the 1990/91 seasons the Foxes avoided relegation thanks to 1-0 victories in their final match.

But two records were broken last night. The match contained seven goals, a new high for a competitive game at the Walkers Stadium. Sadly the record was broken in front of a crowd on just 6,142, the lowest for a competitive match at City’s new home.

Is the Manager of the Month Award Really Cursed?

Football has many wonderful aphorisms which fans can call upon when poor play besets their team. “You’re always vulnerable when you’ve just scored” and “We always concede late goals” are two of my particular favourites.

In fact to call them aphorisms is a touch misleading, aphorisms are supposed to point towards a general truth. Most matches are not filled with late winners and equalisers, nor are most goals responded to in kind by the opposition in seconds – football is all the more exciting because these occurrences are rare and noteworthy.

The Manager of the Month Award is another facet of the game which has its own received wisdom – winners of the award promptly go on to lose their next match. Leicester fans will be acutely aware if this quirk. Four Leicester managers have won a total of eight Manager of the Month Awards between them since 1996. Martin O'Neil (3), Peter Taylor (1) and Rob Kelly (1) all failed to win their next match. Nigel Pearson won just one match immediately following his three Manager of the Month Awards at the club.

So far the 'curse' theory is looking quite convincing, but a wider canvas gives a rather different picture.

Since the 2004/05 a total of 54 Manager of the Month awards have been made in the Championship. Their recipients have gone on in their next league fixture to win 21, draw 11 and lose 22.

If there is a curse, it doesn't seem to be affecting anyone else too badly. That's just typical of Leicester, isn't it?

Moving On

When Gary Megson departed the Walkers Stadium for Bolton Wanderers a friend remarked that it felt like being “dumped by a fat bird”. Nigel Pearson’s departure gives rise to the same feelings of rejection, but this time it’s like being dumped in favour of a woman out of form and lamenting the depreciation of her best assets. Whatever Nigel Pearson sees in Hull is a mystery to the rest of us, but it’s never worth staying in a relationship if one partner doesn’t have the heart for it.

So let’s remember the good times.

Nigel Pearson has been Leicester best manager in a decade. In terms of victories, his win ratio of 51.4% makes him City’s most successful manager of all time.

Pearson led the Foxes to their first win of any division in 29 years and presided over the clubs longest unbeaten league run of 23 matches. Had penalties at Cardiff played out differently, he might have been the first club manager to lead a side from English football’s third tier to the top flight in successive seasons since Joe Royle.

In his first season, Pearson’s side scored more league goals (84) than any other team in the top 4 divisions. Their march to the title was built on the back of 27 wins, 19 clean sheets and just four defeats.

Last season Leicester became experts in grinding out results when it mattered, wining more matches by a single goal (14) than any other Championship side. The Foxes didn’t lose any of the 24 matches in which the scored first and managed an eight match unbeaten run in the second tier for the first time since 2002/03.

Better still, City got into the habit of scoring late. Under Pearson, City scored 26 league goals in the last 10 minutes, conceding only 14.

The winning mentality was fostered by a group of successful signings. Jack Hobbs, Chris Weale and Bruno Berner are much celebrated but Michael Morrison, Aleksander Tunchev, David Martin and Kerrea Gilbert also deserve a mention. Going forward Lloyd Dyer injected pace into a side sorely lacking it in 2007/08 and loan signings like Martyn Waghorn and Mark Davies proved that Pearson and his backroom staff had an eye for creative talent.

It wasn’t all roses of course. Robbie Neilson and Ryan McGivern remain unconvincing whilst Astrit Ajdarevic managed just 68 minutes of first team action, but these were the exceptions and not the rule.

Best of all, Pearson managed to do what seven previous City manages had failed to do, get the best out of Matty Fryatt. Before Pearson, Fryatt had managed 11 goals in 81 league appearances fro Leicester. Under the guidance of the new man, Fryatt netted 38 times in 75 league games. It has been a remarkable turnaround.

Whatever the reasons for Pearson’s departure there’s no doubt the club is in a far healthier condition thanks to his work. The feelings of disappointment are strong, and they’ll be even harder to digest if rumours about the breakdown of Pearson’s contract negotiations are true. But his record deserves respect, and for that reason I’ll find it difficult to jeer when Hull City visit the Walkers on 16th October.

Match Preview – Hartlepool Utd (Johnstone’s Paint Trophy First Round)

Is it ever right to root against your team? That must be the question nagging many Foxes fan’s thoughts. Does the greater good apply? Should we hope for a post-match interview from Nigel Pearson featuring the time old cliché “concentrate on the League”?

Lacking any true credentials, the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy demands respect, literally. Each team must field at least 6 regular first team players in its starting line-up, no exceptions. It’s the kind of rule which conveys exactly the opposite of what the Football League hopes to project. Instead of creating a tournament of willing contenders, we have a competition of coerced clubs. It is a distraction few fans want and even fewer attend. Unsurprisingly, no broadcaster has seen fit to buy TV rights for anything but the final.

Below is a list of finals Football League Trophy Finals in the 21st Century with the final league positions of the finalists.

1999/00 - Stoke City (6th L1) vs Bristol City (9th L1)
2000/01 - Port Vale (11th L1) vs Brentford (14th L1)
2001/02 - Blackpool (15th L1) vs Cambridge Utd (24th L1)
2002/03 - Bristol City (3rd L1) vs Carlisle Utd (22nd L2)
2003/04 - Blackpool (14th L1) vs Southend Utd (17th L2)
2004/05 - Wrexham (22nd L1) vs Southend Utd (4th L2)
2005/06 - Swansea City (6th L1) vs Carlisle Utd (1st L1)
2006/07 - Doncaster Rovers (11th L1) vs Bristol Rovers (6th L2)
2007/08 - MK Dons (1st L2) vs Grimsby Town (16th L2)

No finalist in the Football League Trophy has been promoted to the Championship this century.

Defeat is an option, in fact it is the option. It might be the only time City fans can hedge their bets by backing Leicester.

Selected Odds
Hartlepool – 2/1 (Totesport)
Draw – 12/5 (Bet365)
Leicester – 13/10 (William Hill)

Pre-season Review

It’s difficult to be enthused by pre-season. Practising tactics and testing team sheets for the new season isn’t really for the fans. In general, pre-season can be seen in much the same manner as film trailers, we’re presented with brief glimpses of the stars but all too quickly they’re removed. Pre-season is something of a tease that, just like a film trailer, can prove entirely misleading.

Pre-season results mean little to nothing so comparing with previous seasons is redundant. Instead, this review shows who played, for how long, in what matches and what this could mean for Nigel Pearson’s first starting XI against MK Dons.

NB: The games against Quorn and Ilkeston Town have been excluded from this analysis as neither game was managed by Pearson. These outings were essentially youth/reserve games.

Nine players appeared in at least some part in each of City’s six pre-season fixtures. They were; Morrison, Oakley, Gilbert, Howard, Gradel, Fryatt, Campbell, Wesolowski and Kishishev. Morrison, Oakley and Gilbert were the players hardest at work this summer, each playing over 400 minutes during pre-season. Morrison was on the field of play longer than any other player, clocking up an impressive 450 minutes from a possible 540. The former Cambridge Utd man is very likely to find himself starting next week.

Of the remaining defenders, it appears Gilbert (405 mins) and Tunchev (232 mins) will be battling through training next week to partner Morrison. Tunchev’s work permit issues meant he got less time on the pitch than he might otherwise have done. Jack Hobbs (157 mins), on loan from Liverpool, is also in contention.

Of the full-backs, Mattock (310 mins) can be confident of his role at left-back and James Chambers (225 mins) seems to be the most logical fit to the right-back position. However after Ian Holloway asked the squad what positions aside from their own they were comfortable playing in Ollie quipped he’d rename the team “Right-back United” such were the results. Of City’s back four, right-back is the position with most question marks over it.

Moving into midfield and we find Matt Oakley (434 mins) secured in central midfield. Who will join him is more of a mystery. It isn’t apparent if Pearson has even made this decision himself having wrestled with different pairing throughout pre-season. The two leading contenders are Wesolowski (274 mins) and Kishishev (244 mins) though they could be forced to sit on the sidelines if Pearson favours the more creative option of Nicky Adams (188 mins). One thing we can be sure of is the central midfield will not contain both Wesolowski and Kishishev, the pair replaced each other 3 times during pre-season.

The flanks are more easily deciphered. Dyer (326 mins) and Gradel (307 mins) seem like solid choices for the left and right wing respectively.

Pearson’s most vital decision could well be picking City’s strikers. The front-runners are Howard (308 mins), Fryatt (303 mins) and Campbell (295 mins). Of these three only Fryatt has played a full 90 minutes which shows just how much tinkering has gone on with the Foxes’ attack. Fryatt leads the others with four goals to Campbell’s two and Howard’s solitary strike against Hinkley Utd. With no new signings, Pearson must place his faith in two men from three who failed to deliver last season. A little’n’large partnership is likely and ultimately Howard and Fryatt may well get the nod for the opening day.

At the other end of the scale there are clearly some players who will be disappointed with their preparations this pre-season. Barry Hales played just 64 minutes whilst Bruno N’Gotty managed only 45. Some young players who might have hoped to build on their first-team appearances last season haven’t really got much playing time either, in particular Andy King, who managed only 128 minutes. Meanwhile summer signing Harry Worley appeared for just 151 minutes, perhaps he’s failed to impress the new boss.

So, in theory at least, the starting XI against MK Dons should look something like this;

1. Paul Henderson
2. James Chambers
15. Michael Morrison
5. Alexsandar Tunchev
23. Joe Mattock
22. Max Gradel
8. Matt Oakley
7. Radostin Kishishev
11. Lloyd Dyer
9. Steve Howard
12. Matt Fryatt

Saturday can’t come quickly enough.

Update: 04/08/08

Following James Chamber's move to Doncaster Rovers today, expect Kerrea Gilbert to fill in at right back on Saturday.

Do signings equal success?

Nigel Pearson has only been in the Leicester job for three weeks, but already he’s following the well trodden path of recent City managers, he’s signing players, lots of players. Three joined the club this week, Bulgarian international Aleksander Tunchev is likely to make it four and the manager has refused to say how many more are likely to follow him.

The number of signings a manager makes is an interesting issue, so I’ve gone back over the last 16 seasons and totalled up the number signings and departures to see if there is some sort of critical mass which results in success or failure. The results do not look good if Pearson intends to sign players at anything like his current rate.

On average, during the summers of 1992-2002 Leicester purchased three players before the start of each campaign. The highest number came in 2000, the start of Peter Taylor’s reign, when the club made 5 additions. The lowest was the summer of 1998 when Martin O’Neil added a miserly one player to his squad. This steady pattern generally matches City’s rise, particularly in the O’Neil years. The one exception to this was the 1996/7 season when eight were added to the squad midseason. This resulted in a run of 9 games without a win with City only securing their Premiership place with one game to spare. The lesson: a settled team is a successful team.

Following City’s promotion back to the Premiership in 2003, the pattern changes dramatically. 12 players were brought in during that summer, with a further 5 added during the season. For the first time in the club’s history, an entirely new team of players had been brought in during a single campaign. The result: disaster. Only three players started 75% or more of City’s games that season; Ian Walker, Muzzy Izzet and James Scowcroft. Lacking a spine, the team suffered relegation with a pathetic inevitability.

But the lesson had not been learned. In the summer following relegation City shipped out a staggering 21 players, replacing them with 11 new summer signings and a further six midseason. This time just one player, David Connolly, started 75% or more games. The 2005/06 pre-season saw a further 8 new faces and 12 exits but at least the club seemed to be moving towards stability. That season Joey Gudjonnson, Nils-Eric Johansson, Patrick Kisnorbo, Alan Maybury and Patrick McCarthy reached the 75% mark.

Skipping ahead to the 2007/08 season and you should know what’s coming. There were 11 summer signings and four midseason but what was really incredible about 2007/09 was the number of loan signings made. No less than 12 players joined the Foxes on loan last season. To put it in perspective, Leicester had made more loan signings in one season than the club had made in 12 years between 1992 and 2004. Last season three players reached 75% starts; Patrick Kisnorbo, Gareth McAuley and Richard Stearman. This probably goes some way to explaining just why City’s defensive record was so good, yet its scoring record so poor.

Clearly, what we can learn from this is that no club can hope to achieve success with the rates of player turnover evidenced in the last few seasons. If Nigel Pearson hopes to dig Leicester City out of League One, he’ll pick stability over signings.

Nigel Pearson - The Right Man?

To call the appointment of Nigel Pearson at Leicester City a new dawn would be something of a misnomer, for most Foxes fans the outlook of the League One landscape remains unremittingly bleak. For City’s first away game the majority of the travelling support will be housed in a stand with no roof, at their second, fans will remark that even that failed British pole-vaulter from the Olympics would have been able to clear the shelter with room to spare. The future, at least the immediate future wholly lacking in quality or TV coverage let alone quality TV coverage, does not look bright. Perhaps this explains the muted nature of City fans’ greeting of Nigel Pearson. Some have counted their blessings, not so secretly pleased at having been spared the agony of John Gregory. Others lament that the club could not have pulled in a bigger name, still deluding themselves to City’s desperate fall from grace. The rest of us have seen it all before; Milan convinced that this time he has found “the right man”, the manager keen to take on the challenge at such a ‘big club’, the press secretly starting an office pool as to how long the new guy might last, the motions are all too familiar.

Much of the reaction to Pearson’s appointment has been directed to the concern that he is still very much an unknown quantity. He has a bare bones managerial record at best, coupled with experience working under two of the worst Newcastle mangers in recent times. What positives, if any, did he take from his time with Roeder and Allardyce? And in reality, was his achievement at Southampton really all that miraculous? A closer look at his time at St. Mary’s would suggest otherwise.

On 31st January 2008, Southampton found themselves 14th in the Coca-Cola Championship. Pearson officially took over on 18th February, and by the end of the month, the Saints had dropped to 19th. Just one win in March saw the club slip into 21st place and by the end of April a further solitary win saw the Saints going into the final day on the verge of relegation. It was only a 3-2 victory at home to Sheffield United that saved Southampton at the expense of Leicester. Pearson’s record of three wins, seven draws and four defeats suggests that such a performance was the exception and not the rule. Southampton under Pearson were a sinking ship, only some last minute buoyancy (and of course, the failure of others) kept them afloat.

Still, his time at Southampton at least appears to have given Pearson confidence in his managerial ability, something he'll need in spades to deal with his first duty as Leicester boss, sorting the wheat from the chaff in the playing squad. Once that mammoth task is complete he’ll need to add personnel of his own. We can do a breif history here. Restricted to loan transfers at Southampton, Pearson opted for the following loan signings;

Richard Wright – Played 7 games, kept 2 clean sheets
Ian Pearce - Played in a 1-1 draw at Scunthorpe, never seen again.
Vincent Pericard – Striker who started once and appeared as a sub on four occasions. No goals.
Chris Lucketti – Sheffield Utd defender who played four times and only missed the last game due to the terms of his loan deal.
Chris Perry – Six starts, Southampton conceded six goals during those games.

Perhaps understandably, it appears Pearson is a better judge of defenders than he is forwards but the loan market is a dubious place from which to determine a manager’s eye for talent – you only get to choose from rejects. In short, if Milan allows Pearson to flash some cash, there’s no telling how successful or otherwise his purchases will prove to be.

One facet Pearson will have install in his new squad will be something that has over the last five years been sorely lacking at Leicester, team spirit. In this area, fans can find some encouragement. Southampton finally managed to perform when it really mattered on the final day, coming from behind to do so. The Saints also managed to salvage points from losing positions at Scunthorpe, Wolves and Blackpool during Pearson’s short reign. Compare that with Leicester’s one win and five draws from losing positions in the entire season, and already we can see potential for improvement.

What might concern fans the most however, is that in picking a manager who spent his entire career playing as a defender and spent much of his coaching life under defensively minded managers, Pearson might fail to solve Leicester’s most fundamental problem, their inability to score. Southampton weren’t exactly prolific in front of goal under Pearson, netting just 14 times in 13 games. It was never Leicester’s back line that was the problem and Pearson will have to learn how to improve City’s potency in front of goal if he hopes to make the Foxes’ stay in League One as short as possible.

We will wait and see.