How Important Is August?

Pre-season is well under way and at least Leicester seem to be finding the net easily enough. 20 goals in five games, no-matter the opposition, is a pretty impressive tally. It will no doubt be endowing the players with a sense of confidence so desperately needed at the Walkers Stadium.

As with so many aspects of life, confidence in football is key. Over the last few decades Leicester City’s seasons seem to have been shaped by early season momentum. Good early form leads to a strong campaign whilst bad opening results leave the club at best in mid-table.

The numbers here are pretty overwhelming. In the last four seasons, City have taken the following percentages of available points in August;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
2004/05	28%	68%
2005/06	33%	77%
2006/07	47%	64%
2007/08	44%	59%

Compare those percentages to seasons in which the Foxes achieved league success;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
1993/94	67%	65%
1995/96	58%	60%
2002/03	72%	71%

In each of the seasons where City took over half the available points in August, they achieved promotion. When they’ve failed to take over 50%, mid-table mediocrity or worse awaited them. We can also see from those figures the percentage of points won by the league champions in each season. When City start in good form, they stay in good form.

Dig deeper into the statistics and it appears this need for early impetus is not shared by other clubs. In fact, quite the opposite is true. In League One it has been the early season no hopers who have gone on to reach the promised land of the Championship. In the last three seasons, not a single club promoted from League One took more than half the points available in August. Here are the numbers season by season;

Season 2005/06	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Southend Utd	44%	12th	1st
Colchester Utd	28%	22nd	2nd
Barnsley	39%	15th	5th (Pl)

Season 2006/07	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Scunthorpe Utd	20%	24th	1st
Bristol City	40%	14th	2nd
Blackpool	27%	19th	3rd (Pl)

Season 2007/08	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Swansea	44%	10th	1st
Nottingham Forest	22%	18th	2nd
Doncaster Rovers	11%	20th	3rd (Pl)

There are many possible reasons for these figures but the undeniable fact is clear: Leicester depend more on their early season form than many other clubs. Marathon though the season may be, City need to start like sprinters.

This even goes down to the opening day. Since the 2-0 victory over Watford in the first league game at the Walkers Stadium in 2002 the club hasn’t managed an opening day success. Again, this was a component of each of Leicester’s last three promotions.

There’s no doubt Nigel Pearson more than many other League One managers will be praying for early victories. It will settle the fans and the squad immensely, particularly as the former group is still unsure of the manager’s credentials. Pearson doesn’t need four wins from four in August but he does need at least seven points.

In short, August is important, very important.

Goals For, Goals Against

Amid the speculation of the return of Paul Dickov to Leicester City, the attention of the blog this week turns to goals. Fans were well within their rights to quaff remarks involving barn doors and banjos with regard to the Foxes’ derisory goals for tally last season. City were woeful in front of goal; no team in the Championship scored less.

What has continued to baffle City fans during the early Person era is the lack of attention to this side of City’s game. The only striker to make it into double figures last season, Ian Hume, has left for Barnsley and we’re yet to see a single replacement. Steve Howard, DJ Campbell and Barry Hales all disappointed last term, yet currently the responsibility of scoring the majority of Leicester’s goals next season lies with them.

Yet before negativity seeps into yet another post here is a reason to hope: teams promoted in second place from League One have not historically scored many goals. In each of the last three seasons the team in the second promotion slot has scored relatively few times and based their promotion on a solid defensive record.

Let’s look at the teams who have finished 2nd in the last three years. In 05/06 Colchester United were promoted having scored just 58 times (1.26 per game). That season they conceded just 40. In 06/07 Bristol City scored 63 (1.37 per game) and conceded only 39. Last season, Nottingham Forest scored 64 (1.39 per game), but conceded only 32. Each of these sides conceded fewer goals than the play-off contenders below them.

To put it another way, in 05/06 Colchester were the 11th most prolific scorers in League One but had the best defensive record. In 06/07 Bristol City were only the 8th highest scorers but had the second best defence. Nottingham Forest were the 5th most potent attacking force in the division, but crucially conceded six goals fewer than anyone else.

The lesson: keep it tight.

In buying up defenders like Morrison and Tunchev, Nigel Pearson might not be acting quite as strangely as might first appear.

Yet there is still a case for Dickov to be made. Firstly, it would be foolish, not to mention incredibly dull, to rely on City’s defence. Second, Dickov’s first full season at Leicester was the most successful of his career. 17 league strikes ensured he was the club’s top scorer with 23% of the team’s goals that year. Even at 35, he has energy levels that would surely shame the likes of Steve Howard into playing with renewed effort. Dickov is a fans favourite, unafraid of getting stuck in and chasing every lost cause. He is a player who makes opportunities instead of waiting for them. Dickov, in short, is just the sort of player Leicester will need in League One. Every effort should be made to bring him back to the Walkers Stadium.

Do signings equal success?

Nigel Pearson has only been in the Leicester job for three weeks, but already he’s following the well trodden path of recent City managers, he’s signing players, lots of players. Three joined the club this week, Bulgarian international Aleksander Tunchev is likely to make it four and the manager has refused to say how many more are likely to follow him.

The number of signings a manager makes is an interesting issue, so I’ve gone back over the last 16 seasons and totalled up the number signings and departures to see if there is some sort of critical mass which results in success or failure. The results do not look good if Pearson intends to sign players at anything like his current rate.

On average, during the summers of 1992-2002 Leicester purchased three players before the start of each campaign. The highest number came in 2000, the start of Peter Taylor’s reign, when the club made 5 additions. The lowest was the summer of 1998 when Martin O’Neil added a miserly one player to his squad. This steady pattern generally matches City’s rise, particularly in the O’Neil years. The one exception to this was the 1996/7 season when eight were added to the squad midseason. This resulted in a run of 9 games without a win with City only securing their Premiership place with one game to spare. The lesson: a settled team is a successful team.

Following City’s promotion back to the Premiership in 2003, the pattern changes dramatically. 12 players were brought in during that summer, with a further 5 added during the season. For the first time in the club’s history, an entirely new team of players had been brought in during a single campaign. The result: disaster. Only three players started 75% or more of City’s games that season; Ian Walker, Muzzy Izzet and James Scowcroft. Lacking a spine, the team suffered relegation with a pathetic inevitability.

But the lesson had not been learned. In the summer following relegation City shipped out a staggering 21 players, replacing them with 11 new summer signings and a further six midseason. This time just one player, David Connolly, started 75% or more games. The 2005/06 pre-season saw a further 8 new faces and 12 exits but at least the club seemed to be moving towards stability. That season Joey Gudjonnson, Nils-Eric Johansson, Patrick Kisnorbo, Alan Maybury and Patrick McCarthy reached the 75% mark.

Skipping ahead to the 2007/08 season and you should know what’s coming. There were 11 summer signings and four midseason but what was really incredible about 2007/09 was the number of loan signings made. No less than 12 players joined the Foxes on loan last season. To put it in perspective, Leicester had made more loan signings in one season than the club had made in 12 years between 1992 and 2004. Last season three players reached 75% starts; Patrick Kisnorbo, Gareth McAuley and Richard Stearman. This probably goes some way to explaining just why City’s defensive record was so good, yet its scoring record so poor.

Clearly, what we can learn from this is that no club can hope to achieve success with the rates of player turnover evidenced in the last few seasons. If Nigel Pearson hopes to dig Leicester City out of League One, he’ll pick stability over signings.

The Exodus

No sooner had Nigel Pearson placed his feet under the manager’s desk at Leicester City than the club shipped out two of its most talented players. Having already lost Gareth McAuley to Ipswich, the Foxes have now lost the services of Ian Hume and Richard Stearman. This takes exits from the squad this summer to a total of thirteen, one fewer than the total number of signings made by Martin Allen last summer.

The exits of Stearman, Hume and McAuley have been well covered. Somewhat less attention has been given to a number of other players who have also departed. What follows is a review of the talent we won’t be seeing down Filbert Way next season.

Released:
Alan Maybury: 97 Starts (5 Sub) – 3 Goals
Brought to the club from Hearts by then Leicester boss Craig Levin, Maybury had long fallen out of favour with a succession of managers. Maybury played in just one Championship game in the 07/08 season – a 1-1 draw at Burnley in December. That said, he did play in City’s excellent win at Aston Villa in the Carling Cup, and the following 4-3 rollercoaster at Stanford Bridge. Few will miss him.

Rab Douglas: 35 Starts – 6 Clean Sheets
Douglas was another Levin signing who has now reached the end of a 3-year contract. The Scot was sent out on loan on four occasions; to Millwall, Wycombe (twice) and Plymouth. To be fair he did put in a good performance in Plymouth’s win at Bristol City this season. At 36, he seems destined to a role as a journeyman keeper (if such a role exists). No tears here.

Elvis Hammond: 37 Starts (33 Sub) – 10 Goals
Yet another Levin signing, Hammond missed the entirety of last season through injury. With no-one at Leicester recalling any moments of inspiration that might have led to another contract, Elvis left the building. Hammond’s one highlight at the club was poking City back into the game against Spurs in the 2006 FA Cup 3rd Round. He clearly lacked the physical requirements City will need in spades in League One.

Jamie Clapham: 11 Starts – 0 Goals
A free transfer from Wolves, Clapham left many Leicester fans unenthused by his mediocre performances. Clapham was not the fighter City needed. Indeed, City won just three of the games in which he played, losing six. With Joe Mattock likely to take Clapham’s place next season, there really was no place for him.

End of Loan Deals:
Ben Alnwick: 8 Starts – 4 Clean Sheets
The excellent Martin Fullop wooed City fans during his loan spell with City, so much so that Sunderland demanded a price City could not afford for his services. Alnwick, his loan replacement, lacked the presence of the Hungarian but did a reasonable job. Alnwick is still clearly learning his trade and City will be just fine with Ian Henderson next season.

David Bell: 6 Starts – 0 Goals
Bell was one of the few loan signings of the Holloway era who really impressed. Bell was confident enough to run at defenders, intelligent enough to work the ball in useful directions and energetic too. Had City survived he might well have stayed, as it is rumours point to a £400,000 move to Reading. The only certainty is a move away from Luton, already rooted to the bottom of League Two on -10 points. A move back to City is unlikely, but would prove a welcome surprise.

Lee Hendrie: 9 Starts – 1 Goals
The former Aston Villa midfielder seemed exactly the sort of player City should have signed when Rob Kelly was in charge. Then, as now, the team lacked real leadership and Hendrie could often be seen rallying his teammates in his short spell at the Walkers. An excellent finish against Colchester proved his eye for goal whilst only a wonder save stopped him winning all three points in the home game with Bristol City. League One is probably a step down too far for him.

Kelvin Etuhu: 2 Starts (2 Sub) – 0 Goals
Missed an absolute sitter against Bristol City on his debut and never seemed to recover. Disappointing.

Gabor Bori: 4 Starts (2 Sub) – 0 Goals
Zsolt Laczko: 5 Starts (4 Sub) – 0 goals
The second and third Hungarians to play for City last season, Bori and Laczko were signed together from MTK Budapest with the possibility of a permanent deal dangled in front of them. A decent start against Coventry was never bettered and as the season wore on, it became abundantly apparent the pair had no future at the club.

Perhaps what this list demonstrates is how unpredictable the performances of players from the loan market can be. We can only hope City need not delve into it too much next season.

These players all departed before the arrival of Nigel Pearson - expect many more to join the list. Sergio Hellings is probably the most likely candidate to be shown the door first.

Points Of View

Earlier this summer E4 introduced to the world to Will McKenzie. Will had been kicked out of a private school his mother could no longer afford and was forced to deal with life in the heretofore-uncharted waters of a comprehensive. Will sticks out like a sore thumb; he wears a blazer and tie whilst his classmates sport bright blue jumpers, he takes a briefcase to school whilst his friends carry rucksacks, he treats fellow students like adults and is in turn treated like an adult by the students - with utter contempt.

Will McKenzie, for the purposes of this analogy, is Leicester City. Dumped into an unfamiliar division, Leicester too feel out of place. The Walkers Stadium dresses the club in clobber unbefitting of their current status, it was not built for League One football. The players too will see themselves as cut from finer cloth than their competitors. They will have to adapt to a new ‘style’ of play. One Sheffield Wednesday fan recently recalled his club’s stint in League One to me;

“The standard of football is...well, it's absolutely dreadful. Massive lumps of men with no skill flourish in this league as they can batter their way through defences for goals, and centre halves just bully everyone that comes near them. Ref's are used to it, so you'll come away with a ton of injuries, and finding yourselves having to play like everyone else to get any decent results.”

Leicester will need to get physical, fast. In ‘The Inbetweeners’, Will survives by integrating. City will need to do the same.

One change that will become apparent is the structure of League One itself. Unlike the Championship where managers can legitimately claim their side can beat any other, League One is more stratified. Teams who win the division tend to win it well. Luton, Scunthorpe and Swansea have run away with the title in the last four seasons. The trap door too League Two is often filled quickly too. In recent years Stockport, Peterborough, Brentford, Rotherham, Luton and Port Vale have all had their seasons effectively ended in early April. (Stockport and Peterborough have, of course, since returned.)

In this new climate, what sort of points tally should City be aiming for? The last four champions of League One have won with points totals of 98, 82, 91 & 92 points, though this is not an indicator of the number of points they needed. In each season, the title could have been won with totals of 87, 80, 86 & 92* points, an average of 86.25 points. If you fancy City will beat that total, the bookmakers will currently give you odds of 11/2 for the championship.

Perhaps more realistically, City should have their eyes on the 2nd automatic promotion place. To attain this in the last four campaigns clubs have needed 80, 77, 84 & 81 points. That’s an average of 80.5 points, or rounding up the total to 81, 1.76 points per game.

To secure a play-off place, clubs in each of the last four seasons have needed 71, 70, 73 & 70 points. The mean here is 71, or 1.54 points per game.

To satisfy the curiosity of gloom merchants (who might well recall that Sheffield Wednesday almost suffered the embarrassment of successive relegations at this level) the average survival total is 50 points (1.09 per game).

City fans will do well to realise that whilst they may feel uncomfortable in their new surroundings, escaping them will not be easy.

*Removing Leeds Utd’s 15 point deduction would leave them in 2nd on 91 points.

Nigel Pearson - The Right Man?

To call the appointment of Nigel Pearson at Leicester City a new dawn would be something of a misnomer, for most Foxes fans the outlook of the League One landscape remains unremittingly bleak. For City’s first away game the majority of the travelling support will be housed in a stand with no roof, at their second, fans will remark that even that failed British pole-vaulter from the Olympics would have been able to clear the shelter with room to spare. The future, at least the immediate future wholly lacking in quality or TV coverage let alone quality TV coverage, does not look bright. Perhaps this explains the muted nature of City fans’ greeting of Nigel Pearson. Some have counted their blessings, not so secretly pleased at having been spared the agony of John Gregory. Others lament that the club could not have pulled in a bigger name, still deluding themselves to City’s desperate fall from grace. The rest of us have seen it all before; Milan convinced that this time he has found “the right man”, the manager keen to take on the challenge at such a ‘big club’, the press secretly starting an office pool as to how long the new guy might last, the motions are all too familiar.

Much of the reaction to Pearson’s appointment has been directed to the concern that he is still very much an unknown quantity. He has a bare bones managerial record at best, coupled with experience working under two of the worst Newcastle mangers in recent times. What positives, if any, did he take from his time with Roeder and Allardyce? And in reality, was his achievement at Southampton really all that miraculous? A closer look at his time at St. Mary’s would suggest otherwise.

On 31st January 2008, Southampton found themselves 14th in the Coca-Cola Championship. Pearson officially took over on 18th February, and by the end of the month, the Saints had dropped to 19th. Just one win in March saw the club slip into 21st place and by the end of April a further solitary win saw the Saints going into the final day on the verge of relegation. It was only a 3-2 victory at home to Sheffield United that saved Southampton at the expense of Leicester. Pearson’s record of three wins, seven draws and four defeats suggests that such a performance was the exception and not the rule. Southampton under Pearson were a sinking ship, only some last minute buoyancy (and of course, the failure of others) kept them afloat.

Still, his time at Southampton at least appears to have given Pearson confidence in his managerial ability, something he'll need in spades to deal with his first duty as Leicester boss, sorting the wheat from the chaff in the playing squad. Once that mammoth task is complete he’ll need to add personnel of his own. We can do a breif history here. Restricted to loan transfers at Southampton, Pearson opted for the following loan signings;

Richard Wright – Played 7 games, kept 2 clean sheets
Ian Pearce - Played in a 1-1 draw at Scunthorpe, never seen again.
Vincent Pericard – Striker who started once and appeared as a sub on four occasions. No goals.
Chris Lucketti – Sheffield Utd defender who played four times and only missed the last game due to the terms of his loan deal.
Chris Perry – Six starts, Southampton conceded six goals during those games.

Perhaps understandably, it appears Pearson is a better judge of defenders than he is forwards but the loan market is a dubious place from which to determine a manager’s eye for talent – you only get to choose from rejects. In short, if Milan allows Pearson to flash some cash, there’s no telling how successful or otherwise his purchases will prove to be.

One facet Pearson will have install in his new squad will be something that has over the last five years been sorely lacking at Leicester, team spirit. In this area, fans can find some encouragement. Southampton finally managed to perform when it really mattered on the final day, coming from behind to do so. The Saints also managed to salvage points from losing positions at Scunthorpe, Wolves and Blackpool during Pearson’s short reign. Compare that with Leicester’s one win and five draws from losing positions in the entire season, and already we can see potential for improvement.

What might concern fans the most however, is that in picking a manager who spent his entire career playing as a defender and spent much of his coaching life under defensively minded managers, Pearson might fail to solve Leicester’s most fundamental problem, their inability to score. Southampton weren’t exactly prolific in front of goal under Pearson, netting just 14 times in 13 games. It was never Leicester’s back line that was the problem and Pearson will have to learn how to improve City’s potency in front of goal if he hopes to make the Foxes’ stay in League One as short as possible.

We will wait and see.