Pedigree – Part 1

With just over seven weeks to go before Leicester City kick off the 2009/10 Championship campaign at home to Swansea, the start of the new season is now closer than the end of the last. Foxblogger is back in pre-season training.

Already early season optimism is taking its hold, with dreams of the play-offs exciting even the most pessimistic Leicester fan. At least 16 Championship sides will consider themselves viable challengers for a place in the play-offs or better on 8th August. But which of the Championship’s 24 sides (15 of them with past Premier League experience, one fewer than last season) really have a shot at promotion, and which are doomed to mid-table mediocrity or worse? What follows is an exercise in past pedigree.

Barnsley
Premier League Experience: 1 Season
Current Spell in Championship: 3 Seasons
Last season: 20th

Had things gone a little differently in the 2000 play-off final Barnsley could have returned to Premier League, as it turned out an own goal from Richard Wright after 6 minutes was the closest they got. Ipswich ran out 4-2 victors that day and Barnsley haven’t looked like making a serious push upwards since their parachute payments ran out. Four seasons in the third tier from 2002-2006 have reshaped the aspirations of the club. Their first target this season will be 50 points.

Blackpool
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 16th

The departure of Simon Grayson to Leeds United midway through 2008/09 looked to have rocked the Seasiders boat by March. A home defeat by Burnley left Blackpool 21st with just two wins in 15 matches. They survived, but like Barnsley their priorities will be to avoid the bottom three.

Bristol City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 10th

Promoted with Blackpool in 2007, Bristol City’s meteoric rise to the play-off final in their first season back in the second tier after eight years in the third took everyone by surprise. 13 home draws last season proved to be the undoing on their promotion challenge, but the Robins will expect to be in play-off contention once again.

Cardiff City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 7th

The Bluebirds have flirted with promotion in the past, but it has so far only proven to be a cruel tease for their long-suffering fans. In 2006/07 Cardiff lead the way until last November, only for a slump of credit crunch proportions to see them ending the season top of only the bottom half of the table. Last season it was even worse. After the 11th game of the season Cardiff dropped out of the play-off positions only twice – once after game 20, and once after game 46. Preston North End, the side who replaced Dave Jones’ team in the play-offs on the final day did so by virtue of having scored one goal more than Cardiff. The score when the two sides met on 18th April with four games to go: Preston 6-0 Cardiff.

Coventry City
Premier League Experience: 9 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 8 Seasons
Last Season: 17th

Some club yo-yo between divisions, Coventry City do not. Coventry City were last promoted to England’s top flight in 1967 and resolutely stayed there for 34 years. When, in 2001, the Sky Blues finally failed to pull off a great escape they took to the Championship like a barnacle to a rock. Coventry survived relegation by just one point in 2007/08, and have managed just one top ten finish since 2001. Nevertheless, they might get their act together one day.

Crystal Palace
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 15th

Crystal Palace are the reason every team 22nd in December still harbours hopes of a late play-off push. The Eagles ridiculous run of 51 points from 24 matches after they had managed just 22 points from their opening 22 games in 2003/04 was mimicked by Doncaster in 2008/09 (40 points from 22 games following 18 points from 24 matches) but is still the stuff of fantasy in the vast majority of cases. Palace seem to follow a mediocre season with a play-off spot in the next. If they don’t look like repeating this trend, Neil Warnock’s time in football could well be up.

Next time: Derby County to Newcastle United

Let The Party Begin

It’s been 29 years, but Leicester City have finally lifted a league trophy. Brilliant.

With 15 teams already confirmed as Championship sides next year Nigel Pearson has already begun to look at how his own Championship outfit will look. Jack Hobbs has been given a contract, and after a shaky start it can hardly be said he doesn’t deserve it. The turning point in Hobbs’ season came at Selhurst Park and the injury to Alexsander Tunchev. Hobbs had often been too reliant on the Bulgarian to bail him out, but took responsibility well with commanding displays like the one he produced at Millwall. Performances like that are to be expected consistently next year.

609 minutes on the pitch have been enough to secure Wayne Brown a deal at City too. Brown made 44 appearances for Hull during 2007/08 and it’s perhaps that Championship experience in a promotion winning team that has encouraged Pearson to make the former Tiger’s move permanent.

Once again, Pearson is showing his priorities. Leicester will enter the Championship, just as they did League One, with one golden rule: don’t concede. Don’t expect anyone to remain on the halfway line at corners for the remainder of this manager’s reign. That said, when you have the best defence in the Championship, who can fault the approach?

Crewe Alexandra

Crewe enter tomorrow’s game needing results to go their way before their match even becomes a factor in the battle to avoid the drop. If Brighton lose and Carlisle fail to win the Railwaymen will have an opportunity to reach safety. But even then they must do something that they have never managed in their 132 year history, beat Leicester City. Leicester’s last four trips to Crewe have all finished level. History is certainly not on Guðjón Þórðarson’s side.

Crewe’s horrible recent form has undone all the good work the ‘Iceman’ had managed since Christmas, lifting Crewe from bottom in late January to 17th in late March. A winless run of nine matches has made Crewe’s survival chances slim at best, in reality their fatal blow came at Stockport on Tuesday. Amazingly, if Crewe had won that game it would be the Hatters facing almost certain relegation thanks to their 10-point deduction. Still when a side goes seven games without a win at home the only respectable response is introspection.

It took a while to find a statistic where Crewe fare better than City, but the Railwaymen have shared the goals better than the Foxes this season. For what it’s worth 20 Crewe players have scored in League One this season compared to Leicester’s 15.

If there is one crumb of comfort for Crewe it lies in Leicester’s record on the final day of the season. Not since the last game at Filbert Street in 2002 have Leicester City won on the last day of the season. Indeed, the Foxes have won only one final day match in the last 11 years. City won’t get many better opportunities to put that little record to bed.

Champions

"Two years ago I wouldn't have said it was feasible to go down. Can we get promoted next season? Why not?"

There’s one thing you can’t fault about Milan Mandaric, his ambition. But the elation/relief (delete as appropriate) of promotion might have some people getting a little ahead of themselves. Not since Manchester City won successive promotions to land themselves back in the Premier league for the 2000/01 season has a side climbed directly from the third tier of English football to the first.

Since the turn of the century just four promoted sides from the third tier have made it to the play-offs, and whilst Bristol City managed this last season they were the first team to extend their season for five years. Over time teams from the third tier have reached the Premier League – Reading, Stoke, Wigan and Hull have all managed it, but in the same space of time 11 of the 24 promoted teams have since been relegated. If Nottingham Forest, Barnsley or Plymouth drop this season it’ll be 12 from 25.

The Championship has a wealth of teams who all see themselves as Premier League material - 18 of the 24 sides in the division this season had spent at least one year in the promised land. So City’s first challenge in The Championship might actually be to achieve something which they did not manage in any season between 2004 and 2008, to win more games than they lose.

Scunthorpe United

When the Foxes last met the Iron top spot was the prize on offer for the winner. Andy King’s late winner was the difference between the sides in November and City never surrendered first place. Scunthorpe, after a great start to the season are now losing their way.

Nigel Adkins’ side were the second best League One team in January, and the second worst in February. They picked up two points per game in March, but have managed just four points from their four games in April. Locked in a battle with Tranmere Rovers for the final play-off spot seemingly destined to go to the final day when the pair meet, the Iron will be desperate for points.

Scunthorpe are free scorers both at home and away, many of them down to the impressive Gary Hooper who has bagged more than a third (24) already this season. But sadly for the Iron their opponents too have found the net often, a total of 60 so far.

This year Scunthorpe have resembled the Laurie Sanchez era Fulham side which powered past teams in the first half and wilted in the second. The Iron’s goal difference in the first half is 21, in the second it is -5. How the Scunny Bunny has wept at leads squandered, culminating in a loss of 28 points from winning positions this season. If City can keep it tight for the first 45 minutes then the sell-out crowd at the Walkers should be able to enjoy a victory to go with the trophy presentation.

All the scenarios

You could say that Leicester City’s 13th corner of the afternoon against Leeds proved lucky for Steve Howard, but in truth the Foxes deserved their win.

Apologies for the shorter than usual post this week, below are all the important facts you need for Southend.

Leicester City will be Champions of a division for the first time in 29 years if;

i) They win at Southend
ii) They draw and both Peterborough United and MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose, Peterborough lose and MK Dons fail to win.

Leicester City will be promoted from League One at the first time of asking if;

i) They win at Roots Hall
ii) They draw and either Peterborough United or MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose and either Peterborough United lose or MK Dons fail to win.

Simple.

The simplest scenario of all is of course the Leicester win. If that happens, nothing else matters. But Southend will be a tough nut to crack at Roots Hall. Had it not been for a terrible run over Christmas and New Year the Shrimpers’ mathematical play-off chances might have been more statistically significant. They have done remarkably well to turn their season around after finding themselves in 17th place in late January.

Southend have been one of the divisions form sides since then, the second best in February and the 3rd best in March to be precise. This success has been built on solid if unspectacular victories. Southend have won just five games by more than one goal this season, by contrast City have won a dozen.

The Shrimpers boast the second best home defensive record in League One with just 18 goals conceded. Peterborough and Leeds have both lost here, but more recently MK Dons and Millwall have won.

Whatever you do, don’t place you money on a draw. Southend haven’t been involved in one for 18 matches and their last home match to finish all square was 16 games ago on the 1st November. Like Hereford last week, Southend are yet to win this season when they have been behind at the break.

So there you have it. That P next to City’ name can’t come soon enough.

Desire

At 14:55 Leicester fans had to ponder a string of unpleasant realities. Not only were they in very real danger of being knocked off top spot for the first time since 22nd November, Millwall could have reduced the gap between City and the play-offs to just four points. But it was Cheltenham Town, the team with the worst away record of any League One side, who’d conceded 46 goals on their travels, whose only away win had come at the side with the division’s worst home record (Leyton Orient), who’d taken just 5 points in the 21 games where their opponents had scored first, who’d lost 6-3 at home to Peterborough United in December, this Cheltenham Town side took a half-time deficit and secured a draw for the first time this season.

Then Yeovil Town, the side with the fewest goals this season, whose top scorer had managed just five league strikes, who’d won just four games against teams in the top half, who could boast the fifth worst home record in League One, who faced a Millwall side that had won their last five away games, this Yeovil Town side scored a goal in each half to win by two clear goals for only the third time this season.

At 14:55 Leicester fans were worried not only about the Championship, but promotion too. Now they have the chance to seal promotion and go a good way towards securing the title before either Peterborough Untied or Millwall play again. Millwall’s defeat means that City need just 6 points from their remaining five fixtures to be sure of Championship football next year (though given the disparity in goal difference, five points would be enough in reality). Peterborough’s failure to beat Martin Allen’s doomed Cheltenham means that Leicester could make to gap between themselves and the Posh seven points. A lead like that with just five games remaining would surely prove insurmountable.

The question is, do City want it enough?

Here’s everything, statistically, you need to know about the weekend ahead.

Hereford United
Hereford are eleven points from safety with just six matches to avoid the drop. If recent form is anything to go by the Bulls have little interest in saving themselves, Hereford have lost eight of their last nine matches, scoring six and conceding 19.

It’s been a miserable campaign with just two weeks out of the bottom four (one of those was the season’s opening weekend). Hereford have been in League One’s basement since 13th September.

But this is not the done deal it might appear. Oldham and Leeds have been high profile causalities at Edgar Street this year, Oldham in particular took a 5-0 pasting in January. The lesson for Leicester is score first, preferably in the first half. Hereford are yet to win a match this season in which their opponents have scored the opening goal and they have yet to win when trailing at the interval. This should be the easier of the weekend’s fixtures, but as Peterborough and Millwall have already demonstrated, nothing is that simple.

Leeds United
There are just four sides in League One who the Foxes haven’t beaten this season. Stockport County, Swindon Town and Brighton & Hove Albion are part of an exclusive group which only Leeds United can now join.

Simon Grayson’s side have hit form at what seems to be just the right time. The Whites are undefeated in ten – a sequence which includes seven victories. It’s a run which has propelled United from eighth to fifth, probably too late for an automatic promotion push, but Leeds in this form will certainly fancy their chances in the play-offs.

To beat Leeds, City will have to overcome two statistical anomalies which are in danger of becoming serious bugbears. As this blog has mentioned time and again, the Foxes are next to useless at early kick-offs. In the last 19 matches played before 15:00 City have won just two and lost a staggering 14.

Adding to this worry is the camera shy nature of Leicester sides at the Walkers Stadium in recent years. City’s last four home matches televised on Sky Sports have seen just one win and one goal for the Foxes. The results since 2007/08;

Cardiff – 0-0
Crystal Palace – 1-0
Plymouth – 0-1
Oldham – 0-0

You can draw your own conclusions, but a few quid on a goalless draw might be the best bet out there.

City will have to overcome some big challenges to secure promotion on Monday, but I told Rob Henton of Foxpodder a month ago that 13th April would be our promotion party (listen here) and I’d dearly love to be right.

EDIT: When writing this post I made the schoolboy error of forgetting to account for MK Dons' game in hand. Leicester City can still be promoted on Monday, but as well as defeating Hereford and Leeds over the weekend City will need to hope Roberto Di Matteo's side fail to win at home to Bristol Rovers. The champagne might be on ice a little longer, but you never know...

Panic

“Are there a hint of nerves kicking in at Leicester?” wrote John Ashdown of the Guardian this week. Leaving aside the terrible grammar, does he have a point? Well there are certainly Leicester fans who, having become accustomed to disappointment in the past five seasons, have surrendered the title in their heads already. A quick glance a Talking Balls will show you what I mean.

But surely there is nothing to worry about. Even if Millwall win five of their last six matches (and Millwall haven’t won five consecutive matches since last September) City will still only need to scrape six points from their final six matches thanks to their vastly superior goal difference.

The more optimistic of you might be interested to know that City are the only side left in the Football League who can reach 100 points for the season. Though to reach this colossal total they will have to win six consecutive matches, something the Foxes haven’t managed in the 15 seasons I’ve been following the club. The best winning streak Leicester have managed this season is five, equalling a run they last managed in 2002/03.

The Week That Was
There was a large Steve Howard shaped hole in the Leicester side which travelled to Peterborough last week. It’s telling that in the three league matches in which Howard has not featured Leicester have failed to keep posession. At home to Colchester, City had 49% of the ball. At Peterborough, the Foxes managed just 43% possession. Most staggeringly at Scunthorpe, Leicester managed just 36%.

Matty Fryatt took the award for League One player of the season this week. The awards ceremony taking place whilst the season is still ongoing was one of the talking points raised by fans, and Fryatt’s Jekyll and Hyde season probably means another more consistent League One striker might have been more deserving. Fryatt scored 23 goals before Christmas but has only managed five in nineteen games since he signed his new contract. The Fryarstarter hasn’t scored in four matches.

Usually this season Leicester have been able to call off matches played on international weekends with Andy King, Aleksander Tunchev and Nicky Adams all representing their countries. It was one of the factors which has allowed King to keep a 100% appearance record this season. The Foxes certainly missed him at London Road.

The Week Ahead
Carlisle Untied provided League One with this season’s false start. The Cambrians took 13 points from the campaign’s opening five matches and looked set to begin anew their quest for promotion. 35 games and just 30 points later Carlisle lie just one point above the relegation zone and, thanks to the form of Crewe and Leyton Orient, its become a real scrap. No team below Huddersfield in 14th is yet realistically safe from the drop, though this blog being what it is, I should point out that only the top seven are mathematically safe from relegation.

Carlisle have managed just 17 goals away from home this season, only Yeovil and the damned Hereford United have managed fewer. Eleven defeats on their twenty road trips this season have made the majority of those long journeys back to Cumbria pretty miserable for the Carlisle faithful.

Without a win in six and with just one victory in their last ten matches Carlisle do not arrive at the Walkers Stadium in any sort of form. Though Leicester as we know are not exactly in great shape either. If the League table was based just on March’s results Nigel Pearson’s side would lie 14th

On This Day
Since beating Aston Villa on this day in 1970 Leicester have failed to win a match on 4th April. Arsenal, Millwall, Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Bristol City, Coventry City and Aston Villa (again) have all taken points against the Foxes on this day. Surely Carlisle won’t add themselves to this list?

Mathematical Certainty

There is nothing more pleasing to Foxblogger than an absolute mathematical certainty, so here’s one that should cheer any Leicester fan. With a win on Saturday against Peterborough, Leicester will be guaranteed a place in the play-offs at the end of the season. Should Leicester fail to win they will have to rely on Tranmere Rovers failing to win at Brighton. The play-offs may not be what this season is all about, but it’s another sign that with seven matches still to play Leicester are on the verge of returning to the Championship at the first attempt. Want to know how hard that is? Ask Nottingham Forrest, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds…

The Week That Was
City once again had to come from behind at home to take points from plucky visitors. It was the sixth time the visiting side had scored first against Nigel Pearson’s side at the Walkers Stadium. Away from home the opposition have scored first on only three occasions.

Perhaps the expectation at home is too high? Or perhaps some teams have some across a useful strategy. The evidence here is mixed. Some teams who have opened up at the Walkers have been destroyed. Huddersfield and Peterborough spring to mind. Yet Swindon and now Colchester have proved in recent weeks that there are points to be gained by playing with a little adventure, instead of just fear, at the Walkers.

Paul Dickov secured a point with his second league goal of the season. Limited playing time has meant Dickov has managed just seven shots in League One this season. Still, five of them have been on target meaning he has a better strike rate than any other player at the club.

The Week Ahead
Much has been made of Peterborough United recent good run, but of the five sides they’ve dispatched in the last few weeks only Scunthorpe Utd could have been expected to put up a fight against genuine promotion challengers.

Posh haven’t been out of the top six in all of 2009. Before Leicester went on their own record breaking 23 match unbeaten run it was the London Road outfit who had the longest unbeaten streak in League One, a very impressive 16 matches. Recently though things are a little more patchy. Since Valentines day Darren Ferguson’s side have won three and lost two at home.

The surprise home defeats to both Yeovil and Southend might have sent the club on course for a mediocre end to the season. Instead it appears to have galvanised the side. Peterborough despatched Northampton Town at home despite playing most of the game with only 10 men. There’s no doubt that this sort of grit will be on display again on Saturday as Peterborough try to get over the 4-0 reverse at the Walkers Stadium from earlier in the season.

With this being a lunchtime encounter it’s time to trot out the numbers for anyone thinking of placing any serious money on a Leicester victory.

Leicester City’s record in matches kicking off before 15:00 since 2002/03
P18 W2 D4 L13 F12 A29

Consider yourselves warned.

On This Day
Tom Dryburgh netter for City after just 10 seconds against Swansea in a 2-1 victory in 1953. It was a club record that would stand for 53 years until Matty Fryatt opened the scoring against Preston North End on 15th April 2006 after just nine seconds.