How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Leicester and the League Cup

It’s now more than ten years since Martin O’Neil’s Leicester side lifted the League Cup. Since then City’s record in the competition has seen few shocks, but a few memorable cup nights.

Macclesfield fans looking for evidence of a surprise this evening need to go back to 1st November 2000 to find the last time Leicester lost a League Cup match to a side from a lower division. That night Peter Taylor’s City were dumped out of the competition in the 3rd Round by Crystal Palace, a side who on the night sat 23rd in what was then Division One. Following that shock City have faced 10 clubs from a lower division in the League Cup and progressed in every single tie.

Perhaps surprisingly tonight’s League Cup home tie will only be Leicester’s 9th in 11 seasons. The Foxes have won four and lost four League Cup ties on home soil in that time. On the road City have played 16 games, winning 10.

Since winning the competition the furthest Leicester have progressed is the last 16. City fans hoping for a cup run will not be surprised at the Foxes one win in six against teams from a higher division. Matty Fryatt’s winner at Aston Villa in 2007 was the only occasion since 2000 that City have shocked Premier League opposition

This is not to say Leicester’s League Cup exploits have not been entertaining. Narrow defeats at Fulham and Chelsea and an extra-time exit at the hands of Aston Villa in particular have been standout moments from the last 10 years. These high-scoring encounters (3-2, 4-3 and 2-3 respectively) have in part contributed to an impressive average of 3.04 goals per City League Cup match.

What has been of more concern for the competition as a whole is the lacklustre attendances in the early rounds. Sadly City’s record here mirrors that of the nation. 7,386 watched City’s last 1st Round League Cup tie at home to Stockport in 2008. The last time Macclesfield visited the Walkers Stadium in the 1st Round of the 2006/07 season just 6,298 showed up. A 2nd Round home tie with Blackpool attracted 7,386 in 2005 and at the same stage in 2004 the 3-2 extra-time defeat to Preston was watched by 6,751.

It wasn’t always like this. The 2nd Round second leg game against Crystal Palace in 1999 attracted 12,762 and in the next round 13,701 saw the Foxes beat Grimsby 2-0. A year earlier 13,480 watched the 2nd Round first leg match with Chesterfield. It’s hard not to think that £12 ticket prices for games which used to be included in the season ticket is part of the reason for the declining crowds. Perhaps the club takes in more ticket revenue this way, but I wonder if City would have done better in League Cup ties at home if the players had been backed by a decent crowd.

Great City Fightbacks

It's now 15 years since Leicester won an opening day match on the road. At half time in yesterday's match I struggled to remember City overturning big deficits to win points away from home. The last time the Foxes recovered from 2-0 down on the road was a 2-2 draw at Watford in 2005. I think I'm right in saying the last time City took a point after being 3 goals behind was the 4-4 draw at Aston Villa in the 1994/95 season, Leicester having been 4-1 behind with around 12 minutes to go.

So great comebacks on the road have been few and far between. But hope is at hand. Losing on the opening day hasn't stopped City promotion campaigns in the past.

Between the wars the Foxes managed this twice. In the 1924/25 season City lost 1-0 at Manchester United and were beaten four times in their opening seven matches. Despite the dismal start, Leicester went on to take the Division Two title by two points from the Red Devils after losing just one game from the beginning of December to the end of the season.

The opening day of the 1936/37 season saw City go down to a 2-1 defeat at home to Blackpool. The Foxes started the season with six defeats in their first ten matches but still went on to take the title.

More recently Leicester lost 1-0 at home to Cardiff City to begin the 1970/71 campaign. However, it proved to be one of only two home defeats all season. The Foxes went unbeaten for the rest of the season following their only other home loss on the 16th January 1971 to secure promotion.

Perhaps City's best recovery came in the 1982/83 season. Charlton were the visitors to Filbert Street on the opening day and took all three points courtesy of a 2-1 win. Leicester lost four of their opening seven games that year and by the end of November found themselves in 15th position with just 20 points.

On the 19th February 1983 the Foxes suffered their 12th defeat if the season. It was a result that left them in 6th place, 12 points adrift of 3rd placed Fulham. But that defeat would prove to be City's last of the season and on the final day a goalless draw at home to relegated Burnley was enough to secure promotion after Fulham went down to a 1-0 defeat at Derby.

Of Leicester's 12 successful promotion campaigns, four came after opening day defeats. After yesterday's second half performance, there's still hope that this season can be a positive one too.

Away Days – Can Leicester do enough on the road?

The start of the 2010/11 season will be something of a novelty for Leicester fans. Only twice in the last 10 seasons have the Foxes started the campaign away from home. More worryingly, both of those matches ended in limp defeats. The opening day of the 2005/06 season saw a 4-1 thumping at Sheffield United. This was followed by a 2-0 surrender at Luton Town to begin the 2006/07 season.

Despite my prattling on about how Leicester didn’t win a single away match by more than one goal last season, City’s away form was by no means as desperate as that statistic suggests. Indeed, 31 points away from home in the Championship is a very respectable total.

The Foxes certainly have some favourite hunting grounds. City have won five of their last seven trips to Oakwell and five of their last 10 visits to Elland Road and Vicarage Road.

Elsewhere however, points are not so easy to come by.

City have fared poorly in recent derby encounters. The Foxes have won only two of their last nine visits to Pride Park and none of their last five matches at Coventry. Most depressingly of all Leicester haven’t collected three points at the City Ground since 1972, amassing 13 trips without a win since.

It’s not just locally that City have struggled. Leicester’s last winning goalscorer at Carrow Road was Emile Heskey in 1995, five matches ago. City have no wins in five attempts at Bramall Lane, just one win in 9 away visits to Hull City, and a pathetic return of one win in 14 league matches at Portman Road.

Of the current 23 Championship grounds to which Leicester will travel this season, City have won on their last visit at 6 of them. Last season six away wins was good enough to see Blackpool promoted to the top flight through the playoffs, but we have to go all the way back to 1994/95 to find another side (Bolton Wanderers, 5 wins) for whom such average away form was sufficient for a successful promotion campaign.

Leicester are likely to need a strong return from their away fixtures to make the playoffs. To do so it looks as though they’re going to need to overcome a few bogey grounds.

Pedigree – Part 1

With just over seven weeks to go before Leicester City kick off the 2009/10 Championship campaign at home to Swansea, the start of the new season is now closer than the end of the last. Foxblogger is back in pre-season training.

Already early season optimism is taking its hold, with dreams of the play-offs exciting even the most pessimistic Leicester fan. At least 16 Championship sides will consider themselves viable challengers for a place in the play-offs or better on 8th August. But which of the Championship’s 24 sides (15 of them with past Premier League experience, one fewer than last season) really have a shot at promotion, and which are doomed to mid-table mediocrity or worse? What follows is an exercise in past pedigree.

Barnsley
Premier League Experience: 1 Season
Current Spell in Championship: 3 Seasons
Last season: 20th

Had things gone a little differently in the 2000 play-off final Barnsley could have returned to Premier League, as it turned out an own goal from Richard Wright after 6 minutes was the closest they got. Ipswich ran out 4-2 victors that day and Barnsley haven’t looked like making a serious push upwards since their parachute payments ran out. Four seasons in the third tier from 2002-2006 have reshaped the aspirations of the club. Their first target this season will be 50 points.

Blackpool
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 16th

The departure of Simon Grayson to Leeds United midway through 2008/09 looked to have rocked the Seasiders boat by March. A home defeat by Burnley left Blackpool 21st with just two wins in 15 matches. They survived, but like Barnsley their priorities will be to avoid the bottom three.

Bristol City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 10th

Promoted with Blackpool in 2007, Bristol City’s meteoric rise to the play-off final in their first season back in the second tier after eight years in the third took everyone by surprise. 13 home draws last season proved to be the undoing on their promotion challenge, but the Robins will expect to be in play-off contention once again.

Cardiff City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 7th

The Bluebirds have flirted with promotion in the past, but it has so far only proven to be a cruel tease for their long-suffering fans. In 2006/07 Cardiff lead the way until last November, only for a slump of credit crunch proportions to see them ending the season top of only the bottom half of the table. Last season it was even worse. After the 11th game of the season Cardiff dropped out of the play-off positions only twice – once after game 20, and once after game 46. Preston North End, the side who replaced Dave Jones’ team in the play-offs on the final day did so by virtue of having scored one goal more than Cardiff. The score when the two sides met on 18th April with four games to go: Preston 6-0 Cardiff.

Coventry City
Premier League Experience: 9 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 8 Seasons
Last Season: 17th

Some club yo-yo between divisions, Coventry City do not. Coventry City were last promoted to England’s top flight in 1967 and resolutely stayed there for 34 years. When, in 2001, the Sky Blues finally failed to pull off a great escape they took to the Championship like a barnacle to a rock. Coventry survived relegation by just one point in 2007/08, and have managed just one top ten finish since 2001. Nevertheless, they might get their act together one day.

Crystal Palace
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 15th

Crystal Palace are the reason every team 22nd in December still harbours hopes of a late play-off push. The Eagles ridiculous run of 51 points from 24 matches after they had managed just 22 points from their opening 22 games in 2003/04 was mimicked by Doncaster in 2008/09 (40 points from 22 games following 18 points from 24 matches) but is still the stuff of fantasy in the vast majority of cases. Palace seem to follow a mediocre season with a play-off spot in the next. If they don’t look like repeating this trend, Neil Warnock’s time in football could well be up.

Next time: Derby County to Newcastle United