How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Pedigree – Part 2

Foxblogger's look at what the past can teach us about the present continues as we take a gander at Derby County to Newcastle Utd.

Derby County
Premier League Experience: 7 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last season: 18th

Derby County aren’t traditionally seen as a yo-yo side, but their six-year spell in the Premier League from 1996-2002 was the sides’ longest period in any division from the 1980’s onwards. Since 1980 Derby have been promoted or relegated a dozen times. Like Crystal Palace, the Rams seem to put together a reasonably good Championship season together after a rotten one. Under Nigel Clough there’s every chance this could continue.

Doncaster Rovers
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 14th

By one measure the Keepmoat Stadium was the most boring place to watch Championship football last season. Just 34 goals were scored in 23 league matches, a measly 1.5 per game. But to characterise Rovers in this way would be injustice equivalent to Graham Fenton’s £1.1m transfer fee, Doncaster were very entertaining and in the last seven seasons have provided their fans with nothing but joy.

In the same year as City last bulldozed their way back to the Premier League, Doncaster were lifting themselves back into the Football League through the Conference play-offs. Leicester haven’t played Doncaster since 1956, it’ll be the longest historical gap they bridge this season.

Ipswich Town
Premier League Experience: 5 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 7 Seasons
Last Season: 9th

Roy Keane may be the story for every other correspondent, but it’s the play-offs which have defined Ipswich Town’s recent history and left scars deeper than any the Irishman left on his opponents. The Tractor Boys have entered the play-offs on six occasions and won promotion only once.

The rot at Ipswich did seem to be ending under Jim Magilton, but the lack of killer instinct cost the side dear in the push for another play-off heartbreak. If Keane is going to perform his promotion miracles again one would think it will have to be as part of the top two.

Middlesbrough
Premier League Experience: 14 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 19th (Relegated)

An average gate on 28,429 attended Middlesbrough’s home matches last season, over 80% of capacity. It’s a surprising statistic because the overriding impression of the Riverside Stadium last season was one of an empty stadium, apathetic fans and an anaemic strike force. The latter is at least true, Boro’ managed just 28 goals last term.

Comforting to Gareth Southgate’s men should be the knowledge that Middlesbrough’s last two stays in the second tier have been blissfully short, three seasons in total. 1997/98’s return straight back to the Premier League was made all the sweeter as Boro’ edged out Sunderland to automatic promotion by just one point. What would Middlesbrough fans give to see the same fate befall Newcastle?

Newcastle Utd
Premier League Experience: 16 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 18th (Relegated)

Unlike their North-East rivals Middlesbrough, the Magpies were not founder members of the Premier League, but they do enter the Championship with more experience at that level than any other side. Only Manchester United and Arsenal finished higher than Newcastle in 2002/03.

The last time Newcastle found themselves in the second tier they spent four years here and almost relegated themselves again in 1991/92 (a season which included a 5-2 away defeat to Oxford Utd, a 6-2 demolition at the hands of Wolves and a 1-1 home draw with Cambridge Utd). The difference this time around is the Sky cameras will be on hand to delight in every such embarrassment. Newcastle visit Scunthorpe on 20th October…

Next time: Nottingham Forest to Reading

Match Review: Cheltenham Town

Was there ever any doubt? City end August in top spot after a commendable start to life in League One. 1,782 Leicester fans saw City triumph at Whaddon Road, a ground that as we mentioned saw many casualties last season. It’s unlikely Leicester will remain in 1st place come next Saturday thanks to the postponement of the trip to Colchester, so enjoy it while it lasts.

As always, here are some numbers to digest…

5 – The number years it has been since Leicester City were top of any table. A 1-1 draw at Rotherham United put City top of Division One on 12th April 2003 after Portsmouth (who had led the league all season) slipped to a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday. In 2000, a goalless draw with Sunderland at the Stadium of Light was enough to leave the Foxes top of the Premier League for a glorious 13 days from 1st-13th October 2000. Manchester United quickly brought City back down to earth with a 3-0 victory at Filbert Street to replace City at the summit.

11 – The number of seasons you have to go back to find a Leicester City away win as big as this one. On 26th April 1998 the Foxes travelled to Pride Park and found themselves 4-0 up inside 15 minutes. There was no such madness at Whaddon Road, but this was City’s biggest away win in over a decade.

9 – The number of points the Foxes have won after leading at halftime. This a 100% record which isn’t too staggering in itself, but shown with last season’s statistics reveals an interesting pattern. In 2007/08 the Foxes led at halftime on 10 occasions - nine of these matches were won, with one drawn. Leicester’s record of converting halftime leads into victories was the second in the Championship only to Stoke. The Potters didn’t drop a single point once ahead at halftime. So, if you want a good bet this season, Leicester-Leicester as a double result looks pretty safe.