Match Preview - Cardiff City

It’s unsurprising that the main talking point from the weekend for Leicester fans has been City’s failure to take all three points at Coventry. A stream of chances were not converted, and the result leaves the Foxes still looking for their first win ahead of back to back meetings with the Championship’s top two.

City’s lowly league position is false in many ways, not least because the Foxes have created chances. Indeed, their total of 40 shots on target is the highest in the Championship. Leicester’s forwards have been accurate too, 57.97% of their attempts on goal have hit the target. This is the best accuracy rating in the division. But, as I recall writing at a similar stage last season, testing the keeper and beating him are two very different things. What City have failed to manage thus far is to convert anywhere near the amount of scoring opportunities required to put them in the promotion picture.

Of Leicester’s 69 attempts on goal just four have found the net, a chance conversion rate of 5.8%. This does not compare favourably with Cardiff City, who have netted 11 times from 55 attempts, a Championship topping conversion rate of 20%.

More worryingly for City, the Bluebirds have the meanest defence in the league. The Cardiff City backline has been breached just twice. And if City want to take points from Tuesday’s game they will have to start brightly, Cardiff’s second half record reads P5 W5 D0 L0 F7 A0.

Looking at the City ranks it’s clear than for most confidence is not an issue for some. Lloyd Dyer, Steve Howard and Dany N’Guessan are all attempting strikes on goal every 30 minutes or less. By contrast, Paul Gallagher has spent 96 minutes on the pitch in league games and hasn’t recorded a single shot. Matty Fryatt (one of five attempts on target) still seems rusty, but Andy King with two goals from four attempts is looking deadly.

But despite talk of goals, this fixture hasn’t produce that many over the years. The last four meetings between Leicester and Cardiff at the Walkers stadium have produced just two goals, and Cardiff have only scored four goals in their last six visits to the Walkers. Recent form, however, suggests those records aren’t going to be reliable indicators to the result.

Is this the end for Matty Fryatt?

The absence of Matty Fryatt from today’s squad has surprised quite a few City fans. As City failed to find the back of the net in their first home game it came as no surprise that some chose to criticise Paulo Sousa's decision to leave Leicester's top scorer of the last decade on the bench.

After Fryatt's jaw found itself subject to the business end of Brian Stock’s shoulder the former Walsall man missed almost all of City's charge to the playoffs. In that time the Foxes have chosen to move away from the 4-4-2 which suited Fryatt and instead played a 4-3-3/4-5-1. Under Sousa this has been refined further to a 4-2-3-1, with Oakley and Wellens anchoring the midfield and Steve Howard operating as a lone front man.

With the return of DJ Campbell to the ranks and the signing of Frank Moussa, Leicester have the players to make this system work. Dyer and Campbell, Moussa and N’Guessean are able to cover sufficient ground to tend to defensive duties when City don't have the ball, but quickly become active forward players when the Foxes are in possession. With Steve Howard leading the line as the preferred striker and Leon Crncic his preferred replacement, this leaves Fryatt without a role. He lacks the mobility to shift the wide players or the aerial ability to replace Howard.

Fryatt operates best on the shoulder of the last defender. He has the uncanny knack of finding space in the penalty area. But for all his goals, Fryatt’s game is lacking in precisely the areas he needs to excel under Sousa. He makes, as Sousa might say, poor decisions. He dribbles when he should spread the play, makes runs down blind alleys and takes forever to look up and assess the options with the ball at his feet.

The opening 45 minutes at Crystal Palace really, ahem, crystallised these points. Fryatt’s control let him down, slowing the play to a standstill. Having allowed defenders to get behind the ball he was left with a series of unappetising options. More often than not, he gave the ball away.

If City are to stick with 4-2-3-1 Fryatt might not be long for the Walkers Stadium.

Oxford Utd 1-1 Leicester City

A 74th minute strike from James Constable was enough to deny Leicester victory in the Foxes’ latest friendly. Constable’s left-foot finish from 10 yards cancelled out an excellent 25-yard free kick from DJ Campbell in an entertaining game at the Kassam Stadium

This time next month City will have three league games under their belt, and this match provided encouraging signs for the travelling Leicester fans. City started in a familiar 4-4-2 but less recognisable was the sight of DJ Campbell on the left wing, with Lloyd Dyer stationed on the right. The inside-out wingers almost provided instant results. On five minutes Dyer cut inside his marker to fire a left-foot shot off the far post.

Nicky Adams, once again at right-back, was given ample opportunity to break forward, allowing in turn Dyer to come inside without City sacrificing width. The fruits of this policy nearly paid off as Dyer latched on to a Howard header on 18 minutes, only to timidly nod the ball into the arms of Clarke.

On 25 minutes it was Campbell’s turn to shine. Largely out of the game until this point, he casually curled a 25-yeard free-kick over the wall and past the despairing grasp of Clarke. But despite his goal, it was clear Campbell was not enjoying his time on the left wing. Almost immediately following his goal Campbell switched to the right flank and enjoyed a much more productive half.

Throughout the first period City were keeping the ball nicely, playing passes from the back and rarely resorting to the long ball. Indeed, such was the strength of City’s passing start that Steve Howard barely got a look in. His main contribution to the half was to block a goalbound Andy King shot after Matty Fryatt had snatched the ball on the halfway line. Fryatt too was subdued, failing to deliver a telling finish despite a number of opportunities. His tame first time shot from 6 yards on the half-hour mark typified his afternoon.

Meanwhile the back line looked solid for the opening 45 minutes, only Jack Hobbs’ spooned clearance over the bar seven minutes before half time made Chris Weale sweat.

After half-time, a much different match played out. City were on the back foot early, as Chris Weale lost out in an aerial challenge and, having failed to win a free-kick, could only watch as the ball was struck wide with the goal gaping.

The comfortable possession football was replaced with a much more careless regard for the ball. In fairness, some of this was down to the much-improved pressing from the home side. But all too often City players found themselves caught in possession, struggling to find the same options that had been available in the first half.

Meanwhile the policy of allowing Nicky Adams the freedom to find the opposition touchline as often as his own inevitably caught the former Bury man out of position on occasions. In Adams’ defence it was Tom Parkes, a centre-half filling in at left-back after coming on for the excellent Bruno Berner, who was guilty of positional indiscipline for Oxford’s equaliser.

City still had chances to win it. Lloyd Dyer, having swapped flanks for the third time, was put through by Fryatt only to see his shot tipped wide. Fryatt too forced a corner after Clarke could only parry his diving header behind.

It was the sort of friendly after which managers and fans alike are keen to point out the result doesn’t matter, but as the Paulo Sousa pre-season Petri dish moves on to Peterborough expect further experimentation.

The season so far...

With this weekend’s trip to Colchester called off due to international call-ups, it’s a good opportunity to take stock of the season so far. Some facts have been repeated many times before but are worth doing so again; Leicester are unbeaten in League One and possess the best defensive record in the division.

Nigel Pearson has been named Manager of the Month, and deservedly so. He’s produced results, but much more importantly he’s changed the atmosphere around the Walkers Stadium. This season the club feels like the home of professionals. What Pearson lacks in a sense of humour, he makes up for with a sense of direction.

Some players have performed way above expectations. Matty Fryatt in particular has made a mockery of his career record of 0.26 goals per game with six goals in six appearances.

Others have provided just what was hoped of them. Max Gradel and Lloyd Dyer have excited the Foxes faithful with an energy and creativity not seen at the Walkers since the days of Muzzy Izzet. Michael Morrison deserves attention too having stepped up two divisions and coped admirably. Morrison has no doubt aided by the experience of Alexander Tunchev and the ability of Jack Hobbs.

The numbers say this has equalled City’s best start to a season in the post-war era, but there are also other telling statistics…

Shots
In all games but the JPT trip to Hartlepool, City have made more attempts on goal than their opponents. City have made 81 efforts on goal so far this season with just over half (43) being on target. By contrast, Leicester’s opponents have managed just 43 attempts on goal, with 31 of those working the keeper. City’s goals to shots ratio is 0.19, for their opponents it has been 0.09.

When broken down by individual players the numbers look positive for Matty Fryatt. His 18 shots (12 on target) have resulted in six goals, a strike rate of 0.33. Steve Howard’s 14 attempts (8 on target) have produced 3 goals, a strike rate of 0.21.

Possession
Leicester are much better at using the ball effectively this season. In three of their four League One games they have kept the ball better than their opponents. Some may argue that possession is nine tenths of the law, but City have managed to win 2 of the 3 games this season when they have seen less of the ball. At Hartlepool in particular, City had just 44% of the possession, but managed to leave Victoria Park with a 3-0 victory.

Discipline
City have received just five yellow cards in all competitions so far this season, this despite committing more misdemeanours than their opponents. Leicester have committed 90 fouls in the campaign so far, their opponents 74. Perhaps one explanation for this discrepancy is the number of fouls committed by Steve Howard, who has managed to accumulate a total of 23 offences already this season, almost all for jumping unfairly with defenders.

Assists
Another positive is the number of different players credited already with assists this season. Eight Leicester players have assists to their name already in 2008/09, a record only Oldham can equal. It is probably no coincidence that the player with the most assists in League One (Mark Wright) comes from MK Dons, a team that has just three players with assists this season. One of the Foxes biggest strengths this year is that their goals really can come from anywhere on the pitch.

This really has been an excellent start to the 2008/09 campaign. History shows that when Leicester start well, they keep up the momentum.

Let’s hope history repeats itself.