Match Preview - Cardiff City

It’s unsurprising that the main talking point from the weekend for Leicester fans has been City’s failure to take all three points at Coventry. A stream of chances were not converted, and the result leaves the Foxes still looking for their first win ahead of back to back meetings with the Championship’s top two.

City’s lowly league position is false in many ways, not least because the Foxes have created chances. Indeed, their total of 40 shots on target is the highest in the Championship. Leicester’s forwards have been accurate too, 57.97% of their attempts on goal have hit the target. This is the best accuracy rating in the division. But, as I recall writing at a similar stage last season, testing the keeper and beating him are two very different things. What City have failed to manage thus far is to convert anywhere near the amount of scoring opportunities required to put them in the promotion picture.

Of Leicester’s 69 attempts on goal just four have found the net, a chance conversion rate of 5.8%. This does not compare favourably with Cardiff City, who have netted 11 times from 55 attempts, a Championship topping conversion rate of 20%.

More worryingly for City, the Bluebirds have the meanest defence in the league. The Cardiff City backline has been breached just twice. And if City want to take points from Tuesday’s game they will have to start brightly, Cardiff’s second half record reads P5 W5 D0 L0 F7 A0.

Looking at the City ranks it’s clear than for most confidence is not an issue for some. Lloyd Dyer, Steve Howard and Dany N’Guessan are all attempting strikes on goal every 30 minutes or less. By contrast, Paul Gallagher has spent 96 minutes on the pitch in league games and hasn’t recorded a single shot. Matty Fryatt (one of five attempts on target) still seems rusty, but Andy King with two goals from four attempts is looking deadly.

But despite talk of goals, this fixture hasn’t produce that many over the years. The last four meetings between Leicester and Cardiff at the Walkers stadium have produced just two goals, and Cardiff have only scored four goals in their last six visits to the Walkers. Recent form, however, suggests those records aren’t going to be reliable indicators to the result.

Is this the end for Matty Fryatt?

The absence of Matty Fryatt from today’s squad has surprised quite a few City fans. As City failed to find the back of the net in their first home game it came as no surprise that some chose to criticise Paulo Sousa's decision to leave Leicester's top scorer of the last decade on the bench.

After Fryatt's jaw found itself subject to the business end of Brian Stock’s shoulder the former Walsall man missed almost all of City's charge to the playoffs. In that time the Foxes have chosen to move away from the 4-4-2 which suited Fryatt and instead played a 4-3-3/4-5-1. Under Sousa this has been refined further to a 4-2-3-1, with Oakley and Wellens anchoring the midfield and Steve Howard operating as a lone front man.

With the return of DJ Campbell to the ranks and the signing of Frank Moussa, Leicester have the players to make this system work. Dyer and Campbell, Moussa and N’Guessean are able to cover sufficient ground to tend to defensive duties when City don't have the ball, but quickly become active forward players when the Foxes are in possession. With Steve Howard leading the line as the preferred striker and Leon Crncic his preferred replacement, this leaves Fryatt without a role. He lacks the mobility to shift the wide players or the aerial ability to replace Howard.

Fryatt operates best on the shoulder of the last defender. He has the uncanny knack of finding space in the penalty area. But for all his goals, Fryatt’s game is lacking in precisely the areas he needs to excel under Sousa. He makes, as Sousa might say, poor decisions. He dribbles when he should spread the play, makes runs down blind alleys and takes forever to look up and assess the options with the ball at his feet.

The opening 45 minutes at Crystal Palace really, ahem, crystallised these points. Fryatt’s control let him down, slowing the play to a standstill. Having allowed defenders to get behind the ball he was left with a series of unappetising options. More often than not, he gave the ball away.

If City are to stick with 4-2-3-1 Fryatt might not be long for the Walkers Stadium.

Stalemate

Foxes fans present at Tuesday’s Carling Cup victory over Macclesfield, the highest scoring competitive match at the Walkers Stadium, will not have expected today’s encounter fail to produce goals. Nevertheless Leicester and Middlesbrough played out the Championship’s first goalless draw of the season and the 8th stalemate between the two sides.

This was Paulo Sousa’s 18th goalless draw as a manager in the English game and the 24th 0-0 to be played out at the Walkers Stadium. Leicester haven’t managed to go an entire season without a goalless draw since 1999/00.

Meanwhile, Middlesbrough have yet to score at the Walkers in three attempts, two of these matches have finished scoreless.

In non goalless draw related news, Steve Howard made his 100th appearance for the Foxes today. Of the current squad only Matt Oakley, Andy King, Matty Fryatt and Jack Hobbs have featured in more games.

Next week City travel to Burnley. The last eight meetings between the two sides have produced just seven goals. Burnley haven’t scored more than one goal against City in the last 13 meetings between the two sides. The last meeting in which both sides more than one goal came in December 1982. So, 5-4 anyone?

The season so far...

With this weekend’s trip to Colchester called off due to international call-ups, it’s a good opportunity to take stock of the season so far. Some facts have been repeated many times before but are worth doing so again; Leicester are unbeaten in League One and possess the best defensive record in the division.

Nigel Pearson has been named Manager of the Month, and deservedly so. He’s produced results, but much more importantly he’s changed the atmosphere around the Walkers Stadium. This season the club feels like the home of professionals. What Pearson lacks in a sense of humour, he makes up for with a sense of direction.

Some players have performed way above expectations. Matty Fryatt in particular has made a mockery of his career record of 0.26 goals per game with six goals in six appearances.

Others have provided just what was hoped of them. Max Gradel and Lloyd Dyer have excited the Foxes faithful with an energy and creativity not seen at the Walkers since the days of Muzzy Izzet. Michael Morrison deserves attention too having stepped up two divisions and coped admirably. Morrison has no doubt aided by the experience of Alexander Tunchev and the ability of Jack Hobbs.

The numbers say this has equalled City’s best start to a season in the post-war era, but there are also other telling statistics…

Shots
In all games but the JPT trip to Hartlepool, City have made more attempts on goal than their opponents. City have made 81 efforts on goal so far this season with just over half (43) being on target. By contrast, Leicester’s opponents have managed just 43 attempts on goal, with 31 of those working the keeper. City’s goals to shots ratio is 0.19, for their opponents it has been 0.09.

When broken down by individual players the numbers look positive for Matty Fryatt. His 18 shots (12 on target) have resulted in six goals, a strike rate of 0.33. Steve Howard’s 14 attempts (8 on target) have produced 3 goals, a strike rate of 0.21.

Possession
Leicester are much better at using the ball effectively this season. In three of their four League One games they have kept the ball better than their opponents. Some may argue that possession is nine tenths of the law, but City have managed to win 2 of the 3 games this season when they have seen less of the ball. At Hartlepool in particular, City had just 44% of the possession, but managed to leave Victoria Park with a 3-0 victory.

Discipline
City have received just five yellow cards in all competitions so far this season, this despite committing more misdemeanours than their opponents. Leicester have committed 90 fouls in the campaign so far, their opponents 74. Perhaps one explanation for this discrepancy is the number of fouls committed by Steve Howard, who has managed to accumulate a total of 23 offences already this season, almost all for jumping unfairly with defenders.

Assists
Another positive is the number of different players credited already with assists this season. Eight Leicester players have assists to their name already in 2008/09, a record only Oldham can equal. It is probably no coincidence that the player with the most assists in League One (Mark Wright) comes from MK Dons, a team that has just three players with assists this season. One of the Foxes biggest strengths this year is that their goals really can come from anywhere on the pitch.

This really has been an excellent start to the 2008/09 campaign. History shows that when Leicester start well, they keep up the momentum.

Let’s hope history repeats itself.

Match Review: Tranmere Rovers

Yesterday left many Foxes fans wondering how a striker with no pace, a terrible first touch, an inability to beat his defender and, until Saturday, had shown no inklings of being able to head the ball suddenly finds himself joint top scorer in League One alongside Richard Lambert of Bristol Rovers. Numbers are Matty Fryatt’s friend at present, but surely his tally is due at least in part to the terrible defending Leicester have faced thus far.

Here are some other numbers to digest after yesterday’s win…

2 – This was the first time a match between Leicester and Tranmere had been settled by two clear goals. The 3-1 margin did much to hide the concern some fans held in stoppage time before Fryatt finished Rovers following a session of head tennis.

11 – The number of seasons you have to go back to find a City side taking seven points from their opening three games. This is City’s best start since the 1997/98 campaign, when their opponents were Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester United. The last time City went unbeaten in their opening three matches was in 2000/01 under Peter Taylor, but that side could only manage one win and two draws. Leicester City have yet to win their opening three league fixtures in the post-war era.

33/1 – The odds you would have got on Steve Howard opening the scoring and City winning 3-1. I suspect that barring my dad (the jammy so and so) few punters would have been collecting winnings from this result.

Match Review: Stockport County

3 games, 3 goals, 3 clean sheets, 3rd place, how efficient. Post-match Pearson talked up the positives and City can certainly have a right to be pleased with their start.

Here are some numbers to mull over...

1 – The number of times Matty Fryatt has scored in consecutive starts for Leicester, today was his 90th appearance in a Leicester shirt. Steve Howard has yet to score in consecutive matches for the club. Perhaps in hindsight the goalless draw at 17/2 would have been a good bet.

2 – The number of games involving Stockport that finished 0-0 last season. Leicester were involved in seven scoreless encounters in 2008/09. They failed to score in 19 league games, that’s 41.3% of their matches.

4 – The number of teams in the Football League who have yet to concede a goal. Leicester are joined in this list by Reading, Watford and Shrewsbury. The Foxes already have the best defence in League One.

17 – The number of clean sheets Leicester managed in 2007/08. With two already in the bag it looks as if reaching the 20+ mark would not be an unreasonable target for City.

Statistic of the day goes to BBC Radio Leicester’s Ian Stringer: Leicester have never won on the 16th August. Remarkable.

Match Review: Stockport County (League Cup First Round)

A phrase City fans haven’t been able to utter for 15 months can now banded about without the necessity of touching wood, crossing fingers or any other number of jinx averting techniques, “consecutive wins”. Well done lads, it only took 15 months!

Here’s some numbers from last night’s game.

150 – The number of days since Steve Howard’s last competitive goal in a Leicester shirt. Howard’s barren spell began after his hat-trick at West Brom. Howard got as many yellow cards as goals last season.

66% - City’s record against 10 men last season. The Foxes managed to beat West Brom and Norwich after players were dismissed but failed to make their numerical advatage count against Watford at Vicarage Road. City were reduced to 10 on four occasions last season, taking just 1 point from those games in a goalless draw at Scunthorpe.

7,386 – Last night’s attendance may seem small, but it’s actually more than City got for some other early League Cup fixtures at the Walkers. Just 6,751 saw City dumped out in the 2nd Round 3-2 after extra-time against Preston in 2004/05. Coincidentally, last night’s turnout is exactly the same as the attendance for the 2nd Round tie against Blackpool in 2005/06. A brace for Mark de Vries was enough for Leicester that night as City won 2-1.

Match Review: MK Dons

A match with many positives; two goals for Fryatt, good starts from no less than five debutants and a clean sheet (something City didn’t manage in all of pre-season).

Here are some numbers to consider...

2 - Before Saturday Matty Fryatt had never scored a brace for Leicester. The Fryastarter (as he shall henceforth be known) had netted just 7 times in the last two seasons. The last time he scored twice in a match was in 2005 in Walsall’s 3-1 victory over Rotherham.

6 - The number of years since City had last won an opening day fixture. In the last 4 times City have won on the opening day they’ve been promoted on 3 occasions. The exception, an opening day win against Aston Villa in 97/98.

19.5 – The average age of the Foxes defence at the end of the game. There were tense moments before Fryatt sealed the game, but the fact they held firm deserves credit.

1 – The number of shots Steve Howard attempted. It was off-target.

I was on Foxpodder (an excellent Leicester City podcast now in its 3rd season) this weekend talking about the game and this blog. Follow the subscription link on the right to have a listen.