Match Preview: Stockport County (League Cup First Round)

The indignity of playing in the League Cup First Round no longer seems quite as tragic now that City will be competing in the Johnston’s Paint Trophy this season. Pearson has promised changes to the side but surely it’s a bit too early to “concentrate on the League”. The crowd at the Walkers tonight, however small, will expect the team to progress.

Past Meetings
We have to go back to 1925 to find the last competitive fixture between these two sides. The meeting came in an Old Division Two fixture at Filbert Street and City finished 4-0 victors. Stockport recorded their last win over City at Filbert Street back in February 1920. A 2-0 win was the reward for the visitors that day.

For what it's worth, the head-to-head totals are 15 wins for the Foxes, 13 wins for County and 8 draws. On two occasions Leicester have beaten Stockport by a 5-4 margin. You’ll probably get a very decent price at the bookies if you believe history might repeat itself.

Like Leicester, some of Stockport’s finest hours have been in the League Cup. In the 1996/97 campaign they knocked out Blackburn Rovers, Southampton and West Ham before finally succumbing to Middlesbrough in the semi-final. We all know the rest.

Reasons To Be Confident
Leicester have reached the Third Round of the League Cup in each of the last three seasons. The haven’t failed to progress to the Second Round since 1979 when Rotherham United were the undoing of the Foxes.

Stockport’s leading scorer from last season, Liam Dickinson, is now safely out of sight at Derby County. The Hatters second top scorer Anthony Elding signed for Leeds in the summer. County’s third top scorer last season, Adam Proudlock, has moved on to bigger and better things at Darlington. There really are big question marks over where Stockport’s goals will come from this season. The above trio were responsible for 46 last term.

Since their epic run in 1996/97, Stockport haven’t made it past the Second Round in this competition.

Reasons To Be Worried
As with MK Dons, Stockport took more points away from home than at Edgely Park last season. They took a very impressive 44 points on the road in League Two, losing just 5 times.

Stockport are very useful at converting draws into wins. 13 victories in 2007/08 came after the scores were level at half-time.

Leicester have failed to win two games in a row since April 2007.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 13/19 (Canbet.com)
Draw – 11/4 (SkyBet)
Stockport – 9/2 (Betdirect)

Match Review: MK Dons

A match with many positives; two goals for Fryatt, good starts from no less than five debutants and a clean sheet (something City didn’t manage in all of pre-season).

Here are some numbers to consider...

2 - Before Saturday Matty Fryatt had never scored a brace for Leicester. The Fryastarter (as he shall henceforth be known) had netted just 7 times in the last two seasons. The last time he scored twice in a match was in 2005 in Walsall’s 3-1 victory over Rotherham.

6 - The number of years since City had last won an opening day fixture. In the last 4 times City have won on the opening day they’ve been promoted on 3 occasions. The exception, an opening day win against Aston Villa in 97/98.

19.5 – The average age of the Foxes defence at the end of the game. There were tense moments before Fryatt sealed the game, but the fact they held firm deserves credit.

1 – The number of shots Steve Howard attempted. It was off-target.

I was on Foxpodder (an excellent Leicester City podcast now in its 3rd season) this weekend talking about the game and this blog. Follow the subscription link on the right to have a listen.

Match Preview: MK Dons

The waiting is almost over. Excited yet? Here are some facts and figures to consider for Saturday.

Past Meetings
Leicester have yet to play MK Dons under their new name. In their last meeting the Dons were still known as Wimbledon and crashed to a 4-0 defeat at the Walkers thanks to goals from Trevor Benjamin and a hat-trick from, you guessed it, Paul Dickov. (Funny how these things work out isn’t it?)

The last time City were beaten at home by the MK Dons/Wimbledon came on a dank November evening in front of the Sky TV cameras. Marcus Gayle’s solitary strike meant the Dons took all three points in what might well have been the worst game of professional football in 1997. Later that season Wimbledon completed the double over the Foxes with a 2-1 win at Selhurst Park – it was their last victory over City.

Saturday’s meeting will be only the 17th between the two sides. City have won seven, the Dons six and there have been three draws (including 2 which took City to Wembley in the Coca-Cola Cup).

Reasons To Be Confident
This may by Nigel Pearson’s first game as manager at Leicester City, but Roberto Di Matteo has never managed a competitive match before. There’s no doubt both clubs have taken gambles on their bosses, but you’d have to say the MK Don’s have taken the bigger risk.

Paul Dickov is back. If Dickov is in the starting line-up Leicester will be imminently more dangerous. Dickov had the best goals/game ratio of his career at Leicester and there’s still life in his legs. Dickov’s short spell at Blackpool last season (six goals in seven starts) is more than enough evidence he still knows where the net is.

Lloyd Dyer was 3rd top scorer at MK Dons last season, just two off top spot with 11 goals. Now he’ll be aiming for his former club.

Reasons To Be Worried
Leicester haven’t won on the opening day of the season since 2002/03 when they beat Watford 2-0. Amazingly, MK Dons haven’t started the season away from home since the 1999/00 season. They began that campaign with a 3-2 win at…Watford.

MK Dons took 17 more points away from home than at stadium:mk last season. They lost just twice on their travels in League Two.

The MK Dons scored first in 76% on their matches last season. Leicester won just 8 points from losing positions in all of 2007/08.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 10/11 (Totesport)
Draw – 12/5 (Boylesports)
MK Dons – 7/2 (VC Bet)

Pre-season Review

It’s difficult to be enthused by pre-season. Practising tactics and testing team sheets for the new season isn’t really for the fans. In general, pre-season can be seen in much the same manner as film trailers, we’re presented with brief glimpses of the stars but all too quickly they’re removed. Pre-season is something of a tease that, just like a film trailer, can prove entirely misleading.

Pre-season results mean little to nothing so comparing with previous seasons is redundant. Instead, this review shows who played, for how long, in what matches and what this could mean for Nigel Pearson’s first starting XI against MK Dons.

NB: The games against Quorn and Ilkeston Town have been excluded from this analysis as neither game was managed by Pearson. These outings were essentially youth/reserve games.

Nine players appeared in at least some part in each of City’s six pre-season fixtures. They were; Morrison, Oakley, Gilbert, Howard, Gradel, Fryatt, Campbell, Wesolowski and Kishishev. Morrison, Oakley and Gilbert were the players hardest at work this summer, each playing over 400 minutes during pre-season. Morrison was on the field of play longer than any other player, clocking up an impressive 450 minutes from a possible 540. The former Cambridge Utd man is very likely to find himself starting next week.

Of the remaining defenders, it appears Gilbert (405 mins) and Tunchev (232 mins) will be battling through training next week to partner Morrison. Tunchev’s work permit issues meant he got less time on the pitch than he might otherwise have done. Jack Hobbs (157 mins), on loan from Liverpool, is also in contention.

Of the full-backs, Mattock (310 mins) can be confident of his role at left-back and James Chambers (225 mins) seems to be the most logical fit to the right-back position. However after Ian Holloway asked the squad what positions aside from their own they were comfortable playing in Ollie quipped he’d rename the team “Right-back United” such were the results. Of City’s back four, right-back is the position with most question marks over it.

Moving into midfield and we find Matt Oakley (434 mins) secured in central midfield. Who will join him is more of a mystery. It isn’t apparent if Pearson has even made this decision himself having wrestled with different pairing throughout pre-season. The two leading contenders are Wesolowski (274 mins) and Kishishev (244 mins) though they could be forced to sit on the sidelines if Pearson favours the more creative option of Nicky Adams (188 mins). One thing we can be sure of is the central midfield will not contain both Wesolowski and Kishishev, the pair replaced each other 3 times during pre-season.

The flanks are more easily deciphered. Dyer (326 mins) and Gradel (307 mins) seem like solid choices for the left and right wing respectively.

Pearson’s most vital decision could well be picking City’s strikers. The front-runners are Howard (308 mins), Fryatt (303 mins) and Campbell (295 mins). Of these three only Fryatt has played a full 90 minutes which shows just how much tinkering has gone on with the Foxes’ attack. Fryatt leads the others with four goals to Campbell’s two and Howard’s solitary strike against Hinkley Utd. With no new signings, Pearson must place his faith in two men from three who failed to deliver last season. A little’n’large partnership is likely and ultimately Howard and Fryatt may well get the nod for the opening day.

At the other end of the scale there are clearly some players who will be disappointed with their preparations this pre-season. Barry Hales played just 64 minutes whilst Bruno N’Gotty managed only 45. Some young players who might have hoped to build on their first-team appearances last season haven’t really got much playing time either, in particular Andy King, who managed only 128 minutes. Meanwhile summer signing Harry Worley appeared for just 151 minutes, perhaps he’s failed to impress the new boss.

So, in theory at least, the starting XI against MK Dons should look something like this;

1. Paul Henderson
2. James Chambers
15. Michael Morrison
5. Alexsandar Tunchev
23. Joe Mattock
22. Max Gradel
8. Matt Oakley
7. Radostin Kishishev
11. Lloyd Dyer
9. Steve Howard
12. Matt Fryatt

Saturday can’t come quickly enough.

Update: 04/08/08

Following James Chamber's move to Doncaster Rovers today, expect Kerrea Gilbert to fill in at right back on Saturday.

How Important Is August?

Pre-season is well under way and at least Leicester seem to be finding the net easily enough. 20 goals in five games, no-matter the opposition, is a pretty impressive tally. It will no doubt be endowing the players with a sense of confidence so desperately needed at the Walkers Stadium.

As with so many aspects of life, confidence in football is key. Over the last few decades Leicester City’s seasons seem to have been shaped by early season momentum. Good early form leads to a strong campaign whilst bad opening results leave the club at best in mid-table.

The numbers here are pretty overwhelming. In the last four seasons, City have taken the following percentages of available points in August;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
2004/05	28%	68%
2005/06	33%	77%
2006/07	47%	64%
2007/08	44%	59%

Compare those percentages to seasons in which the Foxes achieved league success;

Season	Points won in August	Total Points Won By Champions
1993/94	67%	65%
1995/96	58%	60%
2002/03	72%	71%

In each of the seasons where City took over half the available points in August, they achieved promotion. When they’ve failed to take over 50%, mid-table mediocrity or worse awaited them. We can also see from those figures the percentage of points won by the league champions in each season. When City start in good form, they stay in good form.

Dig deeper into the statistics and it appears this need for early impetus is not shared by other clubs. In fact, quite the opposite is true. In League One it has been the early season no hopers who have gone on to reach the promised land of the Championship. In the last three seasons, not a single club promoted from League One took more than half the points available in August. Here are the numbers season by season;

Season 2005/06	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Southend Utd	44%	12th	1st
Colchester Utd	28%	22nd	2nd
Barnsley	39%	15th	5th (Pl)

Season 2006/07	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Scunthorpe Utd	20%	24th	1st
Bristol City	40%	14th	2nd
Blackpool	27%	19th	3rd (Pl)

Season 2007/08	Points won in August	August League Position	Final League Position
Swansea	44%	10th	1st
Nottingham Forest	22%	18th	2nd
Doncaster Rovers	11%	20th	3rd (Pl)

There are many possible reasons for these figures but the undeniable fact is clear: Leicester depend more on their early season form than many other clubs. Marathon though the season may be, City need to start like sprinters.

This even goes down to the opening day. Since the 2-0 victory over Watford in the first league game at the Walkers Stadium in 2002 the club hasn’t managed an opening day success. Again, this was a component of each of Leicester’s last three promotions.

There’s no doubt Nigel Pearson more than many other League One managers will be praying for early victories. It will settle the fans and the squad immensely, particularly as the former group is still unsure of the manager’s credentials. Pearson doesn’t need four wins from four in August but he does need at least seven points.

In short, August is important, very important.

Goals For, Goals Against

Amid the speculation of the return of Paul Dickov to Leicester City, the attention of the blog this week turns to goals. Fans were well within their rights to quaff remarks involving barn doors and banjos with regard to the Foxes’ derisory goals for tally last season. City were woeful in front of goal; no team in the Championship scored less.

What has continued to baffle City fans during the early Person era is the lack of attention to this side of City’s game. The only striker to make it into double figures last season, Ian Hume, has left for Barnsley and we’re yet to see a single replacement. Steve Howard, DJ Campbell and Barry Hales all disappointed last term, yet currently the responsibility of scoring the majority of Leicester’s goals next season lies with them.

Yet before negativity seeps into yet another post here is a reason to hope: teams promoted in second place from League One have not historically scored many goals. In each of the last three seasons the team in the second promotion slot has scored relatively few times and based their promotion on a solid defensive record.

Let’s look at the teams who have finished 2nd in the last three years. In 05/06 Colchester United were promoted having scored just 58 times (1.26 per game). That season they conceded just 40. In 06/07 Bristol City scored 63 (1.37 per game) and conceded only 39. Last season, Nottingham Forest scored 64 (1.39 per game), but conceded only 32. Each of these sides conceded fewer goals than the play-off contenders below them.

To put it another way, in 05/06 Colchester were the 11th most prolific scorers in League One but had the best defensive record. In 06/07 Bristol City were only the 8th highest scorers but had the second best defence. Nottingham Forest were the 5th most potent attacking force in the division, but crucially conceded six goals fewer than anyone else.

The lesson: keep it tight.

In buying up defenders like Morrison and Tunchev, Nigel Pearson might not be acting quite as strangely as might first appear.

Yet there is still a case for Dickov to be made. Firstly, it would be foolish, not to mention incredibly dull, to rely on City’s defence. Second, Dickov’s first full season at Leicester was the most successful of his career. 17 league strikes ensured he was the club’s top scorer with 23% of the team’s goals that year. Even at 35, he has energy levels that would surely shame the likes of Steve Howard into playing with renewed effort. Dickov is a fans favourite, unafraid of getting stuck in and chasing every lost cause. He is a player who makes opportunities instead of waiting for them. Dickov, in short, is just the sort of player Leicester will need in League One. Every effort should be made to bring him back to the Walkers Stadium.

Do signings equal success?

Nigel Pearson has only been in the Leicester job for three weeks, but already he’s following the well trodden path of recent City managers, he’s signing players, lots of players. Three joined the club this week, Bulgarian international Aleksander Tunchev is likely to make it four and the manager has refused to say how many more are likely to follow him.

The number of signings a manager makes is an interesting issue, so I’ve gone back over the last 16 seasons and totalled up the number signings and departures to see if there is some sort of critical mass which results in success or failure. The results do not look good if Pearson intends to sign players at anything like his current rate.

On average, during the summers of 1992-2002 Leicester purchased three players before the start of each campaign. The highest number came in 2000, the start of Peter Taylor’s reign, when the club made 5 additions. The lowest was the summer of 1998 when Martin O’Neil added a miserly one player to his squad. This steady pattern generally matches City’s rise, particularly in the O’Neil years. The one exception to this was the 1996/7 season when eight were added to the squad midseason. This resulted in a run of 9 games without a win with City only securing their Premiership place with one game to spare. The lesson: a settled team is a successful team.

Following City’s promotion back to the Premiership in 2003, the pattern changes dramatically. 12 players were brought in during that summer, with a further 5 added during the season. For the first time in the club’s history, an entirely new team of players had been brought in during a single campaign. The result: disaster. Only three players started 75% or more of City’s games that season; Ian Walker, Muzzy Izzet and James Scowcroft. Lacking a spine, the team suffered relegation with a pathetic inevitability.

But the lesson had not been learned. In the summer following relegation City shipped out a staggering 21 players, replacing them with 11 new summer signings and a further six midseason. This time just one player, David Connolly, started 75% or more games. The 2005/06 pre-season saw a further 8 new faces and 12 exits but at least the club seemed to be moving towards stability. That season Joey Gudjonnson, Nils-Eric Johansson, Patrick Kisnorbo, Alan Maybury and Patrick McCarthy reached the 75% mark.

Skipping ahead to the 2007/08 season and you should know what’s coming. There were 11 summer signings and four midseason but what was really incredible about 2007/09 was the number of loan signings made. No less than 12 players joined the Foxes on loan last season. To put it in perspective, Leicester had made more loan signings in one season than the club had made in 12 years between 1992 and 2004. Last season three players reached 75% starts; Patrick Kisnorbo, Gareth McAuley and Richard Stearman. This probably goes some way to explaining just why City’s defensive record was so good, yet its scoring record so poor.

Clearly, what we can learn from this is that no club can hope to achieve success with the rates of player turnover evidenced in the last few seasons. If Nigel Pearson hopes to dig Leicester City out of League One, he’ll pick stability over signings.