Pedigree - Part 4

The new season begins in less than 3 days, excited yet? The final part of the Pedigree series is below.

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Scunthorpe United
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 6th (Promoted)

Foxblogger had the pleasure of watching Scunthorpe at their first Wembley appearance last season. Back in March the JTP Final between the Iron and Luton was called the best domestic game at Wembley since it was rebuilt. That match was quickly eclipsed by the League One play-off final in May and this time it was Scunthorpe who fell on the smiley side of a 3-2 scoreline.

Scunthorpe’s first season in the Championship after a 44-year absence ended in immediate relegation. It’s easy to forget that Nigel Adkins’ side actually started the season quite well, sitting happily in mid-table until November. But by New Years’ Day 2008 the Iron had slipped into the bottom three and never got out. Watching what lessons they have learned from this experience will be interesting.

Sheffield United
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 3rd

Now here’s a side haunted by the past. Absolute certainties don’t come much closer than five minutes in conversation with a Blades fan and the words “West Ham” and “Tevez” cropping up. If Sheffield United fans can finally come to terms with their relegation long enough to focus on the present they’ll see a side more than capable of bringing them back to the Premier League. Maybe once they get there they’ll get more than eight points from their final 11 matches of the season too?

Sheffield United are another of the eight founder members of the Premier League who have since lost their grip on the cash cow they helped to create. It took the Blades 12 long years to get themselves promoted back to the Premier League after their relegation before last but you’d be surprised if they took as long this time.

Sheffield Wednesday
Premier League Experience: 8 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 12th

It’s a measure of how far Sheffield Wednesday fell in the years following their relegation from the Premier League that last season’s 12th place in the Championship was the club’s second best season in the last ten years.

It’s difficult to know how to place Wednesday. In 2009 the club oscillated between 12th and 13th place and no further. What that says about ambitions is anyone’s guess, but Wednesday have tended to be slow starters since their return to the Championship. Two years in League One has taught the club to live within its means, but it’s difficult to picture a Wednesday promotion push on the back of prudence.

Swansea City
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 8th

Swansea fans are used to seeing their team winning. The side hasn’t finished in the bottom half of any table since 2002/03, which considering the Swans have been promoted twice during that period is a very impressive record.

But the departure of Roberto Martinez could lead to a case of second season syndrome. We’ll take a closer look at Swansea in our first weekly preview on Friday.

Watford
Premier League Experience: 2 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 13th

Twice the Hornets have made it to the Premier League, and twice they have been unceremoniously dumped out of the division. Still, when you consider Derby’s last effort you might think that 24 and 28 points aren’t exactly terrible hauls for small teams with tight budgets in the top flight these days. Perhaps Burnley will provide a new benchmark this season?

Following their latest relegation Watford looked odds-on to return straight back, but just one win in their final 14 games of 2007/08 meant the Hornets scraped into the play-offs on goal difference alone. A side truly out of form were duly trounced 6-1 on aggregate by eventual play-off winners Hull.

Watford were the first side Foxblogger ever saw Leicester play. Boxing Day 1993 saw City equalise in the last minute to snatch a 4-4 draw. There really was no hope for me after that.

West Brom
Premier League Experience: 4 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 20th (Relegated)

In only two of the last eight seasons have West Brom remained in the division in which they started. Even those campaigns weren’t dull; one featured a final day escape from relegation in which any three of the bottom four could have gone down, the other featured a play-off final defeat at the hands of Derby County.

Despite all this movement, the Baggies have been keen not to overextend themselves. As a result they find themselves in excellent financial shape, something which can’t exactly be said for other promotion rivals such as their opening day opponents, Newcastle United.

With a goalscorer, West Brom may well prove the biggest threat in the division.

Pedigree - Part 3

With the season just days away Foxblogger will be posting every day this week. Part 3 of the Pedigree series is below. Part 4 will follow tomorrow.

Nottingham Forest
Premier League Experience: 5 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Seasons
Last Season: 19th

Forest were founder members of the Premier League and Sky Sports chose to broadcast the first ever live Premiership match from the City Ground, a 2-2 draw with Liverpool. Whilst Sky’s production values have come along a fair way in the last 17 years, the same cannot be said for Forest’s quality. An excruciating three seasons in League One was followed last year by a painful re-introduction to the Championship – Colin Calderwood’s side managed just two wins in their first 19 matches back in the second tier.

At least this season brings back the prospect of some excellent East-Midlands derbies. Leicester, Derby and Forest have not competed in the same division since 2004/05. For the first season in five bragging rights are most certainly at stake.

Peterborough Utd
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 2nd (Promoted)

This is Posh’s first season in the second tier since 1993/94. Defeated on the opening day by City that season, Peterborough’s season never really got going as they whimpered out of Division One. Further relegation to the fourth tier followed four years later and since then Posh had rarely looked like breaking back into the Championship.

That was until 11 wins in their final 15 games last season put Posh ahead of the faltering MK Dons and as high as they’re been in the league ladder for 17 seasons. There’s really no telling how Peterborough will adjust, but under Darren Ferguson they should at least be difficult to beat at home.

Preston North End
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 9 Seasons
Last Season: 6th

Preston haven’t experienced relegation for 17 seasons and given last season’s push for the play-offs it’s unlikely they will be looking down this season either. As the Championship’s longest serving tenants Preston are due an exit one way or another.

But like Ipswich Town, Preston have suffered at the hands of the play-offs too many times to consider then a viable option for promotion. Four times in the last nine seasons they have reached to top six, only to see Bolton and West Ham pip them to the Premier League in the final.

Queen’s Park Rangers
Premier League Experience: 4 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 11th

Flush with dosh, QPR were the team to back for the title at the start of last season; nevermind.

Still, Rangers did manage a top half finish for the first time in four seasons. Like Leicester, QPR have suffered the ignominy of relegation to the third tier having lost their Premier League status in 1996. And like Nottingham Forrest, it took QPR three years to make their way out of what was then Division Two.

Finding the back of the net will be QPR’s most pressing concern early this season. They failed to score in nine of their last 14 Championship matches last year.

Reading
Premier League Experience: 2 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 4th

Reading fans might argue they ought to have had at least one more season in the Premier League to their name. Back in 1994/95 they nearly completed the same feat Leicester fans are dreaming of this season. Promoted from Division Two a year earlier, Reading scored 58 goals and amassed 79 points in what was their first ever season in the second tier. It was enough to place them second in the table that season. Unfortunately for the Royals it was also the season in which the Premier League shed two teams from its roster. As a result the four sides relegated from the Premier League were to be replaced by just two from Division One. Reading battled to the play-off final but were beaten 4-3 by Bolton after extra time.

Still, when Reading did finally make it to the Premier League they did it in style. The 106 points the club won in 2005/06 is the highest any side has ever achieved in a single season.

Pedigree – Part 2

Foxblogger's look at what the past can teach us about the present continues as we take a gander at Derby County to Newcastle Utd.

Derby County
Premier League Experience: 7 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last season: 18th

Derby County aren’t traditionally seen as a yo-yo side, but their six-year spell in the Premier League from 1996-2002 was the sides’ longest period in any division from the 1980’s onwards. Since 1980 Derby have been promoted or relegated a dozen times. Like Crystal Palace, the Rams seem to put together a reasonably good Championship season together after a rotten one. Under Nigel Clough there’s every chance this could continue.

Doncaster Rovers
Premier League Experience: 0 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 1 Season
Last Season: 14th

By one measure the Keepmoat Stadium was the most boring place to watch Championship football last season. Just 34 goals were scored in 23 league matches, a measly 1.5 per game. But to characterise Rovers in this way would be injustice equivalent to Graham Fenton’s £1.1m transfer fee, Doncaster were very entertaining and in the last seven seasons have provided their fans with nothing but joy.

In the same year as City last bulldozed their way back to the Premier League, Doncaster were lifting themselves back into the Football League through the Conference play-offs. Leicester haven’t played Doncaster since 1956, it’ll be the longest historical gap they bridge this season.

Ipswich Town
Premier League Experience: 5 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 7 Seasons
Last Season: 9th

Roy Keane may be the story for every other correspondent, but it’s the play-offs which have defined Ipswich Town’s recent history and left scars deeper than any the Irishman left on his opponents. The Tractor Boys have entered the play-offs on six occasions and won promotion only once.

The rot at Ipswich did seem to be ending under Jim Magilton, but the lack of killer instinct cost the side dear in the push for another play-off heartbreak. If Keane is going to perform his promotion miracles again one would think it will have to be as part of the top two.

Middlesbrough
Premier League Experience: 14 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 19th (Relegated)

An average gate on 28,429 attended Middlesbrough’s home matches last season, over 80% of capacity. It’s a surprising statistic because the overriding impression of the Riverside Stadium last season was one of an empty stadium, apathetic fans and an anaemic strike force. The latter is at least true, Boro’ managed just 28 goals last term.

Comforting to Gareth Southgate’s men should be the knowledge that Middlesbrough’s last two stays in the second tier have been blissfully short, three seasons in total. 1997/98’s return straight back to the Premier League was made all the sweeter as Boro’ edged out Sunderland to automatic promotion by just one point. What would Middlesbrough fans give to see the same fate befall Newcastle?

Newcastle Utd
Premier League Experience: 16 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 0 Seasons
Last Season: 18th (Relegated)

Unlike their North-East rivals Middlesbrough, the Magpies were not founder members of the Premier League, but they do enter the Championship with more experience at that level than any other side. Only Manchester United and Arsenal finished higher than Newcastle in 2002/03.

The last time Newcastle found themselves in the second tier they spent four years here and almost relegated themselves again in 1991/92 (a season which included a 5-2 away defeat to Oxford Utd, a 6-2 demolition at the hands of Wolves and a 1-1 home draw with Cambridge Utd). The difference this time around is the Sky cameras will be on hand to delight in every such embarrassment. Newcastle visit Scunthorpe on 20th October…

Next time: Nottingham Forest to Reading

Pedigree – Part 1

With just over seven weeks to go before Leicester City kick off the 2009/10 Championship campaign at home to Swansea, the start of the new season is now closer than the end of the last. Foxblogger is back in pre-season training.

Already early season optimism is taking its hold, with dreams of the play-offs exciting even the most pessimistic Leicester fan. At least 16 Championship sides will consider themselves viable challengers for a place in the play-offs or better on 8th August. But which of the Championship’s 24 sides (15 of them with past Premier League experience, one fewer than last season) really have a shot at promotion, and which are doomed to mid-table mediocrity or worse? What follows is an exercise in past pedigree.

Barnsley
Premier League Experience: 1 Season
Current Spell in Championship: 3 Seasons
Last season: 20th

Had things gone a little differently in the 2000 play-off final Barnsley could have returned to Premier League, as it turned out an own goal from Richard Wright after 6 minutes was the closest they got. Ipswich ran out 4-2 victors that day and Barnsley haven’t looked like making a serious push upwards since their parachute payments ran out. Four seasons in the third tier from 2002-2006 have reshaped the aspirations of the club. Their first target this season will be 50 points.

Blackpool
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 16th

The departure of Simon Grayson to Leeds United midway through 2008/09 looked to have rocked the Seasiders boat by March. A home defeat by Burnley left Blackpool 21st with just two wins in 15 matches. They survived, but like Barnsley their priorities will be to avoid the bottom three.

Bristol City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 2 Seasons
Last Season: 10th

Promoted with Blackpool in 2007, Bristol City’s meteoric rise to the play-off final in their first season back in the second tier after eight years in the third took everyone by surprise. 13 home draws last season proved to be the undoing on their promotion challenge, but the Robins will expect to be in play-off contention once again.

Cardiff City
Premier League Experience: 0
Current Spell in Championship: 5 Seasons
Last Season: 7th

The Bluebirds have flirted with promotion in the past, but it has so far only proven to be a cruel tease for their long-suffering fans. In 2006/07 Cardiff lead the way until last November, only for a slump of credit crunch proportions to see them ending the season top of only the bottom half of the table. Last season it was even worse. After the 11th game of the season Cardiff dropped out of the play-off positions only twice – once after game 20, and once after game 46. Preston North End, the side who replaced Dave Jones’ team in the play-offs on the final day did so by virtue of having scored one goal more than Cardiff. The score when the two sides met on 18th April with four games to go: Preston 6-0 Cardiff.

Coventry City
Premier League Experience: 9 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 8 Seasons
Last Season: 17th

Some club yo-yo between divisions, Coventry City do not. Coventry City were last promoted to England’s top flight in 1967 and resolutely stayed there for 34 years. When, in 2001, the Sky Blues finally failed to pull off a great escape they took to the Championship like a barnacle to a rock. Coventry survived relegation by just one point in 2007/08, and have managed just one top ten finish since 2001. Nevertheless, they might get their act together one day.

Crystal Palace
Premier League Experience: 3 Seasons
Current Spell in Championship: 4 Seasons
Last Season: 15th

Crystal Palace are the reason every team 22nd in December still harbours hopes of a late play-off push. The Eagles ridiculous run of 51 points from 24 matches after they had managed just 22 points from their opening 22 games in 2003/04 was mimicked by Doncaster in 2008/09 (40 points from 22 games following 18 points from 24 matches) but is still the stuff of fantasy in the vast majority of cases. Palace seem to follow a mediocre season with a play-off spot in the next. If they don’t look like repeating this trend, Neil Warnock’s time in football could well be up.

Next time: Derby County to Newcastle United

Let The Party Begin

It’s been 29 years, but Leicester City have finally lifted a league trophy. Brilliant.

With 15 teams already confirmed as Championship sides next year Nigel Pearson has already begun to look at how his own Championship outfit will look. Jack Hobbs has been given a contract, and after a shaky start it can hardly be said he doesn’t deserve it. The turning point in Hobbs’ season came at Selhurst Park and the injury to Alexsander Tunchev. Hobbs had often been too reliant on the Bulgarian to bail him out, but took responsibility well with commanding displays like the one he produced at Millwall. Performances like that are to be expected consistently next year.

609 minutes on the pitch have been enough to secure Wayne Brown a deal at City too. Brown made 44 appearances for Hull during 2007/08 and it’s perhaps that Championship experience in a promotion winning team that has encouraged Pearson to make the former Tiger’s move permanent.

Once again, Pearson is showing his priorities. Leicester will enter the Championship, just as they did League One, with one golden rule: don’t concede. Don’t expect anyone to remain on the halfway line at corners for the remainder of this manager’s reign. That said, when you have the best defence in the Championship, who can fault the approach?

Crewe Alexandra

Crewe enter tomorrow’s game needing results to go their way before their match even becomes a factor in the battle to avoid the drop. If Brighton lose and Carlisle fail to win the Railwaymen will have an opportunity to reach safety. But even then they must do something that they have never managed in their 132 year history, beat Leicester City. Leicester’s last four trips to Crewe have all finished level. History is certainly not on Guðjón Þórðarson’s side.

Crewe’s horrible recent form has undone all the good work the ‘Iceman’ had managed since Christmas, lifting Crewe from bottom in late January to 17th in late March. A winless run of nine matches has made Crewe’s survival chances slim at best, in reality their fatal blow came at Stockport on Tuesday. Amazingly, if Crewe had won that game it would be the Hatters facing almost certain relegation thanks to their 10-point deduction. Still when a side goes seven games without a win at home the only respectable response is introspection.

It took a while to find a statistic where Crewe fare better than City, but the Railwaymen have shared the goals better than the Foxes this season. For what it’s worth 20 Crewe players have scored in League One this season compared to Leicester’s 15.

If there is one crumb of comfort for Crewe it lies in Leicester’s record on the final day of the season. Not since the last game at Filbert Street in 2002 have Leicester City won on the last day of the season. Indeed, the Foxes have won only one final day match in the last 11 years. City won’t get many better opportunities to put that little record to bed.

Champions

"Two years ago I wouldn't have said it was feasible to go down. Can we get promoted next season? Why not?"

There’s one thing you can’t fault about Milan Mandaric, his ambition. But the elation/relief (delete as appropriate) of promotion might have some people getting a little ahead of themselves. Not since Manchester City won successive promotions to land themselves back in the Premier league for the 2000/01 season has a side climbed directly from the third tier of English football to the first.

Since the turn of the century just four promoted sides from the third tier have made it to the play-offs, and whilst Bristol City managed this last season they were the first team to extend their season for five years. Over time teams from the third tier have reached the Premier League – Reading, Stoke, Wigan and Hull have all managed it, but in the same space of time 11 of the 24 promoted teams have since been relegated. If Nottingham Forest, Barnsley or Plymouth drop this season it’ll be 12 from 25.

The Championship has a wealth of teams who all see themselves as Premier League material - 18 of the 24 sides in the division this season had spent at least one year in the promised land. So City’s first challenge in The Championship might actually be to achieve something which they did not manage in any season between 2004 and 2008, to win more games than they lose.

Scunthorpe United

When the Foxes last met the Iron top spot was the prize on offer for the winner. Andy King’s late winner was the difference between the sides in November and City never surrendered first place. Scunthorpe, after a great start to the season are now losing their way.

Nigel Adkins’ side were the second best League One team in January, and the second worst in February. They picked up two points per game in March, but have managed just four points from their four games in April. Locked in a battle with Tranmere Rovers for the final play-off spot seemingly destined to go to the final day when the pair meet, the Iron will be desperate for points.

Scunthorpe are free scorers both at home and away, many of them down to the impressive Gary Hooper who has bagged more than a third (24) already this season. But sadly for the Iron their opponents too have found the net often, a total of 60 so far.

This year Scunthorpe have resembled the Laurie Sanchez era Fulham side which powered past teams in the first half and wilted in the second. The Iron’s goal difference in the first half is 21, in the second it is -5. How the Scunny Bunny has wept at leads squandered, culminating in a loss of 28 points from winning positions this season. If City can keep it tight for the first 45 minutes then the sell-out crowd at the Walkers should be able to enjoy a victory to go with the trophy presentation.

All the scenarios

You could say that Leicester City’s 13th corner of the afternoon against Leeds proved lucky for Steve Howard, but in truth the Foxes deserved their win.

Apologies for the shorter than usual post this week, below are all the important facts you need for Southend.

Leicester City will be Champions of a division for the first time in 29 years if;

i) They win at Southend
ii) They draw and both Peterborough United and MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose, Peterborough lose and MK Dons fail to win.

Leicester City will be promoted from League One at the first time of asking if;

i) They win at Roots Hall
ii) They draw and either Peterborough United or MK Dons fail to win
iii) They lose and either Peterborough United lose or MK Dons fail to win.

Simple.

The simplest scenario of all is of course the Leicester win. If that happens, nothing else matters. But Southend will be a tough nut to crack at Roots Hall. Had it not been for a terrible run over Christmas and New Year the Shrimpers’ mathematical play-off chances might have been more statistically significant. They have done remarkably well to turn their season around after finding themselves in 17th place in late January.

Southend have been one of the divisions form sides since then, the second best in February and the 3rd best in March to be precise. This success has been built on solid if unspectacular victories. Southend have won just five games by more than one goal this season, by contrast City have won a dozen.

The Shrimpers boast the second best home defensive record in League One with just 18 goals conceded. Peterborough and Leeds have both lost here, but more recently MK Dons and Millwall have won.

Whatever you do, don’t place you money on a draw. Southend haven’t been involved in one for 18 matches and their last home match to finish all square was 16 games ago on the 1st November. Like Hereford last week, Southend are yet to win this season when they have been behind at the break.

So there you have it. That P next to City’ name can’t come soon enough.