How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Moving On

When Gary Megson departed the Walkers Stadium for Bolton Wanderers a friend remarked that it felt like being “dumped by a fat bird”. Nigel Pearson’s departure gives rise to the same feelings of rejection, but this time it’s like being dumped in favour of a woman out of form and lamenting the depreciation of her best assets. Whatever Nigel Pearson sees in Hull is a mystery to the rest of us, but it’s never worth staying in a relationship if one partner doesn’t have the heart for it.

So let’s remember the good times.

Nigel Pearson has been Leicester best manager in a decade. In terms of victories, his win ratio of 51.4% makes him City’s most successful manager of all time.

Pearson led the Foxes to their first win of any division in 29 years and presided over the clubs longest unbeaten league run of 23 matches. Had penalties at Cardiff played out differently, he might have been the first club manager to lead a side from English football’s third tier to the top flight in successive seasons since Joe Royle.

In his first season, Pearson’s side scored more league goals (84) than any other team in the top 4 divisions. Their march to the title was built on the back of 27 wins, 19 clean sheets and just four defeats.

Last season Leicester became experts in grinding out results when it mattered, wining more matches by a single goal (14) than any other Championship side. The Foxes didn’t lose any of the 24 matches in which the scored first and managed an eight match unbeaten run in the second tier for the first time since 2002/03.

Better still, City got into the habit of scoring late. Under Pearson, City scored 26 league goals in the last 10 minutes, conceding only 14.

The winning mentality was fostered by a group of successful signings. Jack Hobbs, Chris Weale and Bruno Berner are much celebrated but Michael Morrison, Aleksander Tunchev, David Martin and Kerrea Gilbert also deserve a mention. Going forward Lloyd Dyer injected pace into a side sorely lacking it in 2007/08 and loan signings like Martyn Waghorn and Mark Davies proved that Pearson and his backroom staff had an eye for creative talent.

It wasn’t all roses of course. Robbie Neilson and Ryan McGivern remain unconvincing whilst Astrit Ajdarevic managed just 68 minutes of first team action, but these were the exceptions and not the rule.

Best of all, Pearson managed to do what seven previous City manages had failed to do, get the best out of Matty Fryatt. Before Pearson, Fryatt had managed 11 goals in 81 league appearances fro Leicester. Under the guidance of the new man, Fryatt netted 38 times in 75 league games. It has been a remarkable turnaround.

Whatever the reasons for Pearson’s departure there’s no doubt the club is in a far healthier condition thanks to his work. The feelings of disappointment are strong, and they’ll be even harder to digest if rumours about the breakdown of Pearson’s contract negotiations are true. But his record deserves respect, and for that reason I’ll find it difficult to jeer when Hull City visit the Walkers on 16th October.