Match Preview - Coventry City

To put it politely, we’re all less than pleased that City are still chasing their first league win in September. For a long time it has been difficult to pinpoint why Leicester’s start under Paulo Sousa has felt quite as unfulfilling as it has. Following a bit of research it is now clear exactly why – Leicester City are the only team in the Championship yet to take the lead in a league match. Not only have we yet to see a win, Foxes fans have yet to witness even so much as a theoretical three points on a live league table. No wonder it feels so gloomy.

On the whole, what looked like tough set of opening fixtures is for the moment looking rather different. Only one of the four sides City have faced so far currently sits in the top half. In contrast only one of the five sides City meet in September currently lies any lower than 8th, making the task of finding the first win look even more daunting.

The Foxes are only five short of 2500 league goals away from home, but just 3 league goals so far makes this look a rather distant landmark. At present none of City’s league strikes have come in the first half, a habit which has carried over from last season. In 2009/10 City failed to score in the opening 45 minutes of 26 league games, including their first five Championship matches.

City have never won at the Richo Arena, and their last five trips to Coventry have yielded four points. Not since Micky Adams has a Leicester manager travelled back up the M69 with a win. If you’re thinking of backing City to get their 5th draw in their last 6 trips to Coventry, bear in mind that its now 12 matches since City match away from home has finished all-square.

It is possible to scrape together some positives from the past. City faced the Sky Blues in the first game after Milan Mandarić had been officially unveiled as the new Foxes owner. City, under Rob Kelly, won 3-0. And Kelley’s predecessor Craig Levein got his first win as Leicester manager against Coventry, also a 3-0 victory.

I’m sure Paulo Sousa would settle for that.

Just a thought...

It has been well publicised that this is City’s worst start to a league campaign since 1994. Then as now, City faced a less than forgiving set of fixtures; Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle, the eventual Champions Blackburn Rovers, a Nottingham Forest side which would finish 3rd and a QPR side that ended the season in 8th.

Everyone hoped for a better start from Paulo Sousa’s side, but it’s interesting to compare his record with the man some dreamers hope might replace him.

Here are Martin O’Neil’s first seven league games in charge of Leicester.

Grimsby Town (a) – 2-2
Millwall (a) – 1-1
Stoke City (a) – 0-1
Sunderland (h) – 0-0
Luton Town (h) – 1-1
Portsmouth (a) – 1-2
Port Vale (h) – 1-1

Had these fixtures taken place at the start of the season City would have been joint bottom, spared 24th spot by virtue of scoring six goals.

Fans famously called for O’Neil’s head after fifteen league matches in which his side had accrued a total of three wins and two clean sheets. In the context of the four seasons that followed those protests look extremely foolish now.

This isn’t to say that Paulo Sousa is the next O’Neil, just that managers deserve time to impose their ideas on the side. Sousa’s attempt to create a more fluid City line-up is a worthy cause, even if ironically O’Neil spent his early days moving City away from Mark McGhee’s passing game towards a more direct approach.

In short, even the best take their time. Let’s worry about the table in October.

Two Weeks Off

Like many City fans my opening to the season has been interrupted by a well-earned holiday. Some might be able to switch off completely, but I gripped my smartphone tightly (although not too tightly) as free WiFi hotspots delivered precious snippets of Foxes news. It appears that I have missed an awful lot.

On the pitch City have slumped to their worst start for 16 years. If that doesn’t sound bad enough, tell your friends that this is Leicester’s worst start in the second tier since 1919/20.

I recorded the Reading game and watched an all too often lifeless performance, disguised by a late rally that made City look unfortunate losers. The Leicester City Football Forum immediately following the match made for an entertaining listen. I lost count of the number of fans calling for Sousa’s head. A notion which seems utterly ridiculous at this stage of the season.

The Foxes are through to 3rd Round of the League Cup and face the prospect of two trips to Fratton Park in four days. There has, as far as I can tell, not been much rejoicing.

Off the pitch things have been far more interesting. The club have managed another PR gaffe in their handling of the Fosse Boys. First it seemed the well-meaning supporters group were being denied entry to the stadium following complaints from fellow fans. Then the issue circled more around what was deemed to be “persistent standing”, an act banned it all sections of the ground but an acknowledged reality in the away end and the area immediately surrounding Lee Jobber.

Of course health and safety rules mean the club can’t be seen to condone standing, but nor can they look as if they are picking on a genuinely positive group of fans in the hope of choking off the Fosse Boys movement before it reaches a critical mass (and enforcing rules around “persistent standing” becomes impractical not to mention expensive). The two sides are now in dialogue. An improved atmosphere at the Walkers is in everyone’s interest and we can only hope the matter is handled in a more tactful manner than the ham-fisted approach we have witnessed so far.

There was some more positive news in the transfer market. City came close to fetching their £1.5m price tag for DJ Campbell, a very respectable achievement given they were dealing with a player eager to leave and who, thanks to his expensive and expiring contact, held all the aces. The return of Martyn Waghorn to the Walkers Stadium has raised spirits, and the addition of Yuki Abe looks a good one.

Despite the new signings, fairly basic questions still remain about the takeover. Questions like; How much did the consortium pay for the club? How big a shareholding does Milan Mandarić own in the new consortium? And who are the other members of the consortium? The existence of shadowy figures only leads to suspicion.

Meanwhile the fixtures come thick and fast - seven games in 22 days. City’s outlook on the season will be much better defined by the evening of the 2nd October. Sixteen years ago the Foxes started with one draw and five defeats before getting their first win of the season at home to Spurs. In 1919/20, City’s first win came in game five. All I know is that I much prefer statistics which involve Leicester City winning.

How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Attack and Defense

City have scored six goals and conceded as many in just two matches. At the start of last season it took Nigel Pearson’s side five matches to net six goals and eight games to concede the same number. Meanwhile Paulo Sousa’s Swansea took six games to score six goals and five matches to let in as many. In short, this is not what we expected.

In light of this goal bonanza it’s worth marking the following points of reference for anyone thinking City might be on for a record breaking season up front or at the back. The record number of league goals scored by City in a single season came in 1956/57 when the Foxes scored 109 times. City thoroughly deserved their promotion that year, but the harsh realities of their first season back in the top division led to Leicester shipping more goals than in any season before or since, 112 in total.

In modern times, the 2008/09 promotion campaign (84 goals) is the closest City have come to the record, and even that is only the club's 13th highest scoring season. Meanwhile the 83 goals shipped in the 1990/91 campaign is the club’s worst record in recent history. Coincidentally in both the 1957/58 and the 1990/91 seasons the Foxes avoided relegation thanks to 1-0 victories in their final match.

But two records were broken last night. The match contained seven goals, a new high for a competitive game at the Walkers Stadium. Sadly the record was broken in front of a crowd on just 6,142, the lowest for a competitive match at City’s new home.

My Question for Paulo Sousa

As anyone who has listened to BBC Radio Leicester over the last week will surely be aware, Paulo Sousa will be appearing on the Football Forum tonight. You’ll be able to listen to it on the BBC Leicester website from 6 p.m.

Since I’ll be on a train when the Football Forum is broadcast I thought I’d post a question online in the hope it might be read out. Regardless of whether it actually does, I’m looking forward to hearing from the man himself. It should be a very interesting hour.

My question:

Paulo, much has been made of the playing style of the two sides you have managed in England thus far. I want to ask you about the approach you take when your side is in the lead.

During your spell at QPR the side dropped 9 points from winning positions. Likewise at Swansea last season the team dropped 18 points after leading in league games. In addition, 8 of the 37 goals Swansea conceded last term came in the last five minutes.

Over the coming weeks and months I’m looking forward to seeing Leicester create plenty of chances and score goals. After watching the second half performance at Crystal Palace I’m confident we have the players to do just that.

But how will Leicester approach the game after taking the lead? Will Leicester under your management attempt to hold what they have, or will we try to put teams to the sword?

Paulo Sousa: What to expect

Despite reaching their highest league position since 1983 Swansea fans had very little to cheer about last season, literally. Paulo Sousa’s side scored just 21 league goals at the Liberty Stadium last term meaning your average Swansea season ticket holder paid approximately £17.86 for each home goal.

Infuriatingly, Swansea fans could have covered the cost of their season ticket by backing boredom. Last season the Swans featured in a yawn inducing 10 goalless draws. Savvy punters, by placing £10 on every Swansea match failing to trouble the scoreboard, could have waked away with a profit of £390 come May.

Is this what we have to look forward to?

The case for the defence is that Sousa had very little in terms of attacking talent. Swansea were definitely left with a Jason Scotland sized hole at the heart of attack, and his replacements never looked like filling the gap. Darren Pratley, a midfielder, was the club’s top scorer with seven league goals.

Further, it wasn’t as if Leicester set the scoring charts alight last season. Away from home the two sides shared almost identical records. The Foxes took two extra points and scored two more than Swansea, Sousa's side conceded two fewer.

What Swansea needed but never got was that little extra killer instinct. Leicester won 14 games by a single goal and drew 13 matches; Swansea won 11 matches by the odd goal and drew 18. The gap between the two teams come the end of the season was seven points. Put simply, four more Swansea goals in the regular season could have seen Leicester playing Forest in the play-offs and Sousa’s side making the short trip to Cardiff.

Financial restraints certainly made it difficult for Sousa to improve his squad’s toothless attack. Indeed in the transfer market it’s hard to make too many concrete judgements about Sousa’s capabilities. The only transfer fee he paid was to Southampton to make Nathan Dyer’s loan move a permanent one. I’m sure there are few Swansea fans who would disagree with the wisdom of that decision, but given that his predecessor had brought Dyer to the club in the first place we can hardly praise the Portuguese boss for Craig Shakespearian scouting.

In the loan market Shefki Kuqi’s goals brought vital wins at Crystal Palace, Watford and Derby, but he didn’t exactly set the Championship alight. Craig Beattie managed 3 goals in a dozen starts and a further 11 substitute appearances. But these are the chances you take with the loan market, sometimes they take off spectacularly (Mark Davis, Jack Hobbs, Martyn Waghorn) and sometimes they don’t (Ryan McGivern, Astrit Ajdarevic).

What we can expect is possession football and lots of it. Swansea had the majority of possession in 32 (70%) of their league matches last season. By contrast Leicester managed this in only 18 (39%) of their Championship games.

So in summary, Foxes fans will see more of the ball, but possibly less of it in the net and would probably do well to hedge bets on a few goalless draws. Let’s get that promotion bandwagon rolling.