Match Review: Cheltenham Town

Was there ever any doubt? City end August in top spot after a commendable start to life in League One. 1,782 Leicester fans saw City triumph at Whaddon Road, a ground that as we mentioned saw many casualties last season. It’s unlikely Leicester will remain in 1st place come next Saturday thanks to the postponement of the trip to Colchester, so enjoy it while it lasts.

As always, here are some numbers to digest…

5 – The number years it has been since Leicester City were top of any table. A 1-1 draw at Rotherham United put City top of Division One on 12th April 2003 after Portsmouth (who had led the league all season) slipped to a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday. In 2000, a goalless draw with Sunderland at the Stadium of Light was enough to leave the Foxes top of the Premier League for a glorious 13 days from 1st-13th October 2000. Manchester United quickly brought City back down to earth with a 3-0 victory at Filbert Street to replace City at the summit.

11 – The number of seasons you have to go back to find a Leicester City away win as big as this one. On 26th April 1998 the Foxes travelled to Pride Park and found themselves 4-0 up inside 15 minutes. There was no such madness at Whaddon Road, but this was City’s biggest away win in over a decade.

9 – The number of points the Foxes have won after leading at halftime. This a 100% record which isn’t too staggering in itself, but shown with last season’s statistics reveals an interesting pattern. In 2007/08 the Foxes led at halftime on 10 occasions - nine of these matches were won, with one drawn. Leicester’s record of converting halftime leads into victories was the second in the Championship only to Stoke. The Potters didn’t drop a single point once ahead at halftime. So, if you want a good bet this season, Leicester-Leicester as a double result looks pretty safe.

Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

Cheltenham has always been more famous for its racecourse than its football team. Few City supporters would have pencilled in Whaddon Road as a highlight of City’s away calendar but the Foxes must take points from places such as this. With a win tomorrow City have a chance to establish themselves as pacesetters in League One.

Previous Meetings
Cheltenham have only been part of the Football League since 1999 and the two sides have never met in a competitive fixture. For what it’s worth, The Robins were defeated 2-0 by City in a 2007 pre-season friendly thanks to goals from Matty Fryatt and Darren Kenton.

Reasons To Be Confident
Cheltenham have leaked goals at a rather alarming rate so far this season. In their first three league games they’ve conceded four on two occasions.

Cheltenham did not win a single game last season in which they trailed at halftime. If Leicester start well, they could seal victory early.

Cheltenham will once again be fighting to avoid the drop this year having finished 17th and 19th in their last two campaigns. There is little to suggest from their opening to the season that The Robins will pose a real threat to Leicester. Cheltenham scored just 42 times in League One last season, the second lowest total in the division.

Reasons To Be Worried
Whaddon Road is by no means an easy place for away sides to take three points. In the absence of away form in 2007/08, Cheltenham survived by being difficult to beat at home. Only five sides won at Whaddon Road last season.

Michael Morrison will face former Cambridge Utd teammate Ben Gill in tomorrow’s match. Gill has opened the season with some lively performances as an attacking midfielder. He scored the winner deep into extra time in Cheltenham’s Carling Cup 1st Round win at Southend before finding the net again and receiving a red card in the home win against Swindon just five days later. The 20 year old promises to be a handful.

Of the 10 games in which Cheltenham were level at halftime in 2007/08, they won six and lost only 3. In terms of points per game, this was the second best record in League One.

Miscellaneous Fact
Cheltenham Town have gone 10 games since their last draw.

On This Day
Leicester’s uninspiring start to the 2004/05 season continued with a televised defeat at home to Brighton & Hove Albion. Adam Virgo’s first half effort was enough to defeat a lacklustre Leicester side.

Overall playing record for 30 August;
Played 23, Won 8, Drawn 2, Lost 13, Scored 32, Conceded 37.

Selected Odds
Cheltenham – 13/5 (Bet365)
Draw – 5/2 (Coral)
Leicester – 11/10 (Sportingbet)

Match Review: Fulham (League Cup Second Round)

As heartbreaking as last night’s game was, there are yet again positives to be taken from the performance of Nigel Pearson’s team. But for a couple of cruel deflections City might well have been heading for the 3rd Round of the Carling Cup, and who really thought that was possible at 19:15 yesterday when we learned City’s midfield pairing would be Andy King and James Wesolowski?

Here are some numbers…

90 – Five of City’s last six cup exits have come as a result of last minute strikes. Southampton started the rot in 2006 with a 1-0 win at the Walkers in the 3rd Round of the 2005/06 FA Cup. Since then Aston Villa, Fulham (twice) and Chelsea have dumped Leicester out of cup competitions thanks to efforts in the dying seconds.

-4 – The net number of points City lost as a result of late goals last season. City scored in the 88th minute or later only twice during the league campaign, yet conceded seven in the same timeframe. We all remember the stats from 2003/04 which showed Leicester halfway up the Premier League table had matches ended at 80 minutes, and it was late goals which cost the Foxes again last season. Nigel Pearson will have to ensure last night was a blip, he can scarcely afford the throwaway culture of 2007/08 to haunt City this season.

8 – The number of points City took from losing positions in 2007/08. It’s a statistic that has been highlighted on Foxblogger before but last night was the first time City had gone behind under Nigel Pearson and they showed great character to take the lead after the break. Ultimately Premier League quality won the day, but Leicester fans can take heart in knowing the Foxes will not collapse if they concede first this season.

Match Preview: Fulham (League Cup Second Round)

Wednesday’s trip to Craven Cottage is the first of three games in six days for the Foxes. Whilst City face entirely different prospects in each match, from Fulham they can expect the first quality opposition this season. Roy Hodgson worked miracles with the Cottagers last season and, having added to his squad with some very wise acquisitions, City will do well to progress to the 3rd Round.

Previous Meetings
Leicester’s last visit to Craven Cottage came in the FA Cup just two seasons ago. Early into the second half of a 3rd Round replay the Foxes found themselves in a 3-1 lead only to succumb to a brace from Vincenzo Montella and a 90th minute winner from Wayne Routledge.

In their last Premier League encounters Fulham did the double over City. A double strike from Luis Boa Morte gave Fulham a 2-0 win in 2003, whilst Collins John effectively relegated Micky Adams’ side at the Walkers Stadium with two goals of his own.

Reasons To Be Confident
City have recorded their best start for 11 years and having conceded just one goal share the best defensive record in League One with Stockport County.

The Foxes are scoring goals. Matty Fryatt in particular deserves a mention for already topping his scoring total from last season. In 2007/08 the Fryarstarter netted just three times in 35 appearances.

Fulham’s recent record in the League Cup is far from pretty. They’ve failed to make it past the 3rd Round in any of the last 3 seasons and were the subject of a particularly embarrassing 2-1 home defeat to Wycombe in 2006/07.

Reasons To Be Worried
Andrew Johnson could be fit enough to make his debut tomorrow for Fulham. If he starts City could face all sorts of defensive problems. The striker, recently signed from Everton, is in the process of shaking of a thigh injury.

In the last four seasons Leicester have won three and lost five cup ties against Premier League opposition.

Fulham 1-0 Arsenal.

Selected Odds
Fulham – 8/13 (Ladbrokes)
Draw – 14/5 (Bet365)
Leicester – 11/2 (Bet365)

Match Review: Tranmere Rovers

Yesterday left many Foxes fans wondering how a striker with no pace, a terrible first touch, an inability to beat his defender and, until Saturday, had shown no inklings of being able to head the ball suddenly finds himself joint top scorer in League One alongside Richard Lambert of Bristol Rovers. Numbers are Matty Fryatt’s friend at present, but surely his tally is due at least in part to the terrible defending Leicester have faced thus far.

Here are some other numbers to digest after yesterday’s win…

2 – This was the first time a match between Leicester and Tranmere had been settled by two clear goals. The 3-1 margin did much to hide the concern some fans held in stoppage time before Fryatt finished Rovers following a session of head tennis.

11 – The number of seasons you have to go back to find a City side taking seven points from their opening three games. This is City’s best start since the 1997/98 campaign, when their opponents were Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester United. The last time City went unbeaten in their opening three matches was in 2000/01 under Peter Taylor, but that side could only manage one win and two draws. Leicester City have yet to win their opening three league fixtures in the post-war era.

33/1 – The odds you would have got on Steve Howard opening the scoring and City winning 3-1. I suspect that barring my dad (the jammy so and so) few punters would have been collecting winnings from this result.

Match Preview: Tranmere Rovers

Perhaps the only thing stopping City fans feeling overly buoyant about the Foxes start to the 2008/09 campaign is the strength of opposition. Some consider the Foxes fortunate to have faced promoted sides in their first two league games. The fixture list has certainly enabled Leicester to land on their feet. Enter stage left Tranmere Rovers. The Merseysiders have League One written all over them. This is Rovers’ eighth season at this level after relegation in 2001. City are about to be introduced to the moribund football of the 3rd tier. An unprepared Leicester side could be in for their first scrap of the season.

Previous Meetings
The last time these two sides met was in much happier circumstances for both teams. In 2000 Rovers were led by John Aldridge. Somehow he’d managed to lead a team of freebies and loans to a major cup final. Unfortunately for Aldridge and Tranmere, they faced Leicester in the heyday of the O’Neil years. City won the final Worthington Cup final 2-1. For both clubs its been downhill ever since.

The overall record stands at six wins for the Foxes, three wins for the Super Whites and a further three draws. Rovers last recorded a win over the Foxes in November 1995. A solitary goal from Ian Moore was enough to defeat Mark McGhee’s men at Filbert Street.

Reasons To Be Confident
Leicester have yet to concede a goal and are one of only four teams in the entire Football League with a pristine defensive record.

Tranmere have gone ten games without a win away from Prenton Park. Its been six matches since they took any points at all on the road. Swindon Town comfortably beat Rovers on the opening day at the County Ground and a further Carling Cup defeat at Grimsby seem to indicate this record is set to continue.

Tranmere aren’t exactly comeback specialists. When their opponents scored first in 2007/08 Tranmere managed one win, four draws and 14 defeats.

Reasons To Be Worried
No game between these two sides has ever been settled by more than one goal. In this fixture these is no such thing as a two-goal cushion.

In the last six meetings between the two sides there have been three own goals. Neil Lennon was the last City player to put through his own net against Tranmere.

There are suspiciously few statistics which point towards a Tranmere victory. Pessimists unite!

Selected Odds
Leicester – 8/11 (Blue Sq)
Draw – 13/5 (Bet365)
Tranmere – 9/2 (Bet365)

Away Days

One of the more unconventional statistics about Leicester’s first two League One opponents was that both MK Dons’ and Stockport’s promotions were due in part at least to very impressive away records. In both instances, the teams took more points on the road than in front of their home fans. MK Dons were the most extreme case, taking 17 more points away than at stadium:mk.

So how important has away form in League One been to teams chasing promotion to the Championship?

After City’s goalless draw at Stockport many fans consoled themselves with a cliché, if you win your home games and draw away, promotion is yours. Of course it isn’t really that simple and the Foxes will need more than away draws to secure promotion.

In the last four seasons;

• No team has been promoted automatically taking less than 30 points away from home.
• Only two teams have won less than 10 games on the road and gone straight up.
• All automatically promoted sides have at least a top 5 away record, more than half had the first or second best away form that season.
• The average number of away points taken by automatically promoted clubs from League One has been 38.
• The average number of away points taken by teams who’ve finished second is 33.

In the absence of good finishing, City failed to turn 1 point into 3 at Edgeley Park last weekend. It was certainly two away points dropped. What is clear from these numbers is that Leicester cannot rely on their home form alone, especially as teams will play a far more compressed game at the Walkers Stadium than on their own patch.

However, what these numbers also show is how rare it is for promoted sides to take more points on their travels. Of the eight sides automatically promoted since 2004 only one, Swansea City, has performed better away.

On the basis of these numbers the target for City should be a solid total of 10 away wins. Since the turn of the century only one team (AFC Bournemouth) has won 10 games away from home in this division and failed to make the play-offs.

Some better finishing on Saturday might have meant City only needed a further nine.