How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Leicester and the League Cup

It’s now more than ten years since Martin O’Neil’s Leicester side lifted the League Cup. Since then City’s record in the competition has seen few shocks, but a few memorable cup nights.

Macclesfield fans looking for evidence of a surprise this evening need to go back to 1st November 2000 to find the last time Leicester lost a League Cup match to a side from a lower division. That night Peter Taylor’s City were dumped out of the competition in the 3rd Round by Crystal Palace, a side who on the night sat 23rd in what was then Division One. Following that shock City have faced 10 clubs from a lower division in the League Cup and progressed in every single tie.

Perhaps surprisingly tonight’s League Cup home tie will only be Leicester’s 9th in 11 seasons. The Foxes have won four and lost four League Cup ties on home soil in that time. On the road City have played 16 games, winning 10.

Since winning the competition the furthest Leicester have progressed is the last 16. City fans hoping for a cup run will not be surprised at the Foxes one win in six against teams from a higher division. Matty Fryatt’s winner at Aston Villa in 2007 was the only occasion since 2000 that City have shocked Premier League opposition

This is not to say Leicester’s League Cup exploits have not been entertaining. Narrow defeats at Fulham and Chelsea and an extra-time exit at the hands of Aston Villa in particular have been standout moments from the last 10 years. These high-scoring encounters (3-2, 4-3 and 2-3 respectively) have in part contributed to an impressive average of 3.04 goals per City League Cup match.

What has been of more concern for the competition as a whole is the lacklustre attendances in the early rounds. Sadly City’s record here mirrors that of the nation. 7,386 watched City’s last 1st Round League Cup tie at home to Stockport in 2008. The last time Macclesfield visited the Walkers Stadium in the 1st Round of the 2006/07 season just 6,298 showed up. A 2nd Round home tie with Blackpool attracted 7,386 in 2005 and at the same stage in 2004 the 3-2 extra-time defeat to Preston was watched by 6,751.

It wasn’t always like this. The 2nd Round second leg game against Crystal Palace in 1999 attracted 12,762 and in the next round 13,701 saw the Foxes beat Grimsby 2-0. A year earlier 13,480 watched the 2nd Round first leg match with Chesterfield. It’s hard not to think that £12 ticket prices for games which used to be included in the season ticket is part of the reason for the declining crowds. Perhaps the club takes in more ticket revenue this way, but I wonder if City would have done better in League Cup ties at home if the players had been backed by a decent crowd.

Great City Fightbacks

It's now 15 years since Leicester won an opening day match on the road. At half time in yesterday's match I struggled to remember City overturning big deficits to win points away from home. The last time the Foxes recovered from 2-0 down on the road was a 2-2 draw at Watford in 2005. I think I'm right in saying the last time City took a point after being 3 goals behind was the 4-4 draw at Aston Villa in the 1994/95 season, Leicester having been 4-1 behind with around 12 minutes to go.

So great comebacks on the road have been few and far between. But hope is at hand. Losing on the opening day hasn't stopped City promotion campaigns in the past.

Between the wars the Foxes managed this twice. In the 1924/25 season City lost 1-0 at Manchester United and were beaten four times in their opening seven matches. Despite the dismal start, Leicester went on to take the Division Two title by two points from the Red Devils after losing just one game from the beginning of December to the end of the season.

The opening day of the 1936/37 season saw City go down to a 2-1 defeat at home to Blackpool. The Foxes started the season with six defeats in their first ten matches but still went on to take the title.

More recently Leicester lost 1-0 at home to Cardiff City to begin the 1970/71 campaign. However, it proved to be one of only two home defeats all season. The Foxes went unbeaten for the rest of the season following their only other home loss on the 16th January 1971 to secure promotion.

Perhaps City's best recovery came in the 1982/83 season. Charlton were the visitors to Filbert Street on the opening day and took all three points courtesy of a 2-1 win. Leicester lost four of their opening seven games that year and by the end of November found themselves in 15th position with just 20 points.

On the 19th February 1983 the Foxes suffered their 12th defeat if the season. It was a result that left them in 6th place, 12 points adrift of 3rd placed Fulham. But that defeat would prove to be City's last of the season and on the final day a goalless draw at home to relegated Burnley was enough to secure promotion after Fulham went down to a 1-0 defeat at Derby.

Of Leicester's 12 successful promotion campaigns, four came after opening day defeats. After yesterday's second half performance, there's still hope that this season can be a positive one too.

Match Review: Fulham (League Cup Second Round)

As heartbreaking as last night’s game was, there are yet again positives to be taken from the performance of Nigel Pearson’s team. But for a couple of cruel deflections City might well have been heading for the 3rd Round of the Carling Cup, and who really thought that was possible at 19:15 yesterday when we learned City’s midfield pairing would be Andy King and James Wesolowski?

Here are some numbers…

90 – Five of City’s last six cup exits have come as a result of last minute strikes. Southampton started the rot in 2006 with a 1-0 win at the Walkers in the 3rd Round of the 2005/06 FA Cup. Since then Aston Villa, Fulham (twice) and Chelsea have dumped Leicester out of cup competitions thanks to efforts in the dying seconds.

-4 – The net number of points City lost as a result of late goals last season. City scored in the 88th minute or later only twice during the league campaign, yet conceded seven in the same timeframe. We all remember the stats from 2003/04 which showed Leicester halfway up the Premier League table had matches ended at 80 minutes, and it was late goals which cost the Foxes again last season. Nigel Pearson will have to ensure last night was a blip, he can scarcely afford the throwaway culture of 2007/08 to haunt City this season.

8 – The number of points City took from losing positions in 2007/08. It’s a statistic that has been highlighted on Foxblogger before but last night was the first time City had gone behind under Nigel Pearson and they showed great character to take the lead after the break. Ultimately Premier League quality won the day, but Leicester fans can take heart in knowing the Foxes will not collapse if they concede first this season.

Match Preview: Fulham (League Cup Second Round)

Wednesday’s trip to Craven Cottage is the first of three games in six days for the Foxes. Whilst City face entirely different prospects in each match, from Fulham they can expect the first quality opposition this season. Roy Hodgson worked miracles with the Cottagers last season and, having added to his squad with some very wise acquisitions, City will do well to progress to the 3rd Round.

Previous Meetings
Leicester’s last visit to Craven Cottage came in the FA Cup just two seasons ago. Early into the second half of a 3rd Round replay the Foxes found themselves in a 3-1 lead only to succumb to a brace from Vincenzo Montella and a 90th minute winner from Wayne Routledge.

In their last Premier League encounters Fulham did the double over City. A double strike from Luis Boa Morte gave Fulham a 2-0 win in 2003, whilst Collins John effectively relegated Micky Adams’ side at the Walkers Stadium with two goals of his own.

Reasons To Be Confident
City have recorded their best start for 11 years and having conceded just one goal share the best defensive record in League One with Stockport County.

The Foxes are scoring goals. Matty Fryatt in particular deserves a mention for already topping his scoring total from last season. In 2007/08 the Fryarstarter netted just three times in 35 appearances.

Fulham’s recent record in the League Cup is far from pretty. They’ve failed to make it past the 3rd Round in any of the last 3 seasons and were the subject of a particularly embarrassing 2-1 home defeat to Wycombe in 2006/07.

Reasons To Be Worried
Andrew Johnson could be fit enough to make his debut tomorrow for Fulham. If he starts City could face all sorts of defensive problems. The striker, recently signed from Everton, is in the process of shaking of a thigh injury.

In the last four seasons Leicester have won three and lost five cup ties against Premier League opposition.

Fulham 1-0 Arsenal.

Selected Odds
Fulham – 8/13 (Ladbrokes)
Draw – 14/5 (Bet365)
Leicester – 11/2 (Bet365)