Great City Fightbacks

It's now 15 years since Leicester won an opening day match on the road. At half time in yesterday's match I struggled to remember City overturning big deficits to win points away from home. The last time the Foxes recovered from 2-0 down on the road was a 2-2 draw at Watford in 2005. I think I'm right in saying the last time City took a point after being 3 goals behind was the 4-4 draw at Aston Villa in the 1994/95 season, Leicester having been 4-1 behind with around 12 minutes to go.

So great comebacks on the road have been few and far between. But hope is at hand. Losing on the opening day hasn't stopped City promotion campaigns in the past.

Between the wars the Foxes managed this twice. In the 1924/25 season City lost 1-0 at Manchester United and were beaten four times in their opening seven matches. Despite the dismal start, Leicester went on to take the Division Two title by two points from the Red Devils after losing just one game from the beginning of December to the end of the season.

The opening day of the 1936/37 season saw City go down to a 2-1 defeat at home to Blackpool. The Foxes started the season with six defeats in their first ten matches but still went on to take the title.

More recently Leicester lost 1-0 at home to Cardiff City to begin the 1970/71 campaign. However, it proved to be one of only two home defeats all season. The Foxes went unbeaten for the rest of the season following their only other home loss on the 16th January 1971 to secure promotion.

Perhaps City's best recovery came in the 1982/83 season. Charlton were the visitors to Filbert Street on the opening day and took all three points courtesy of a 2-1 win. Leicester lost four of their opening seven games that year and by the end of November found themselves in 15th position with just 20 points.

On the 19th February 1983 the Foxes suffered their 12th defeat if the season. It was a result that left them in 6th place, 12 points adrift of 3rd placed Fulham. But that defeat would prove to be City's last of the season and on the final day a goalless draw at home to relegated Burnley was enough to secure promotion after Fulham went down to a 1-0 defeat at Derby.

Of Leicester's 12 successful promotion campaigns, four came after opening day defeats. After yesterday's second half performance, there's still hope that this season can be a positive one too.

Match Preview – Crystal Palace

If you had to pick an away trip for the first game of the season, you could do a lot worse than Crystal Palace. Selhurst Park is no longer the fortress it once was, with successive managers failing to capture satisfactory home form.

In 2005/06 the Eagles won 13 matches and took 45 points at home. Since then their points return from home fixtures has read 39, 36, 35 and last season, 29.

In 2005/06 Palace scored 39 league goals at home. In the following seasons they have managed 33, 31, 26 and 24. Only Swansea and Plymouth scored fewer at home than the Eagles in 2009/10.

If the above has failed to convince you of how poor Crystal Palace were at home last season then the fact that 10 Championship sides, including Leicester, left Selhurst Park with all three points should do the trick. Only Plymouth and Peterborough lost more games at home last term.

Leicester have won seven league matches at Selhurst Park, but last season’s victory was the club’s first since 1998. The match was also notable from a statistical point of view as City retained 64% of the possession, the highest share they would control in the whole on the 2009/10 season.

It was the sort of ball retention that Paulo Sousa will be hoping his side can recreate on a regular basis this season. Sousa’s own record at Selhurst Park is encouraging too. In just his third game in charge of QPR his side claimed a goalless draw, then his Swansea team took a 1-0 win last season.

One point to note is that the game will be overseen by Mr K A Woolmer who awarded 4 penalties last season in the Championship, all of them for the home side.

As the season begins every supporter has high hopes. These are both clubs who have experience in reaching the playoffs. Crystal Palace (17) are the only team to have played in more Championship playoff matches than Leicester (14). But it seems like only one of these clubs has any realistic hope of reaching the playoffs this year. Leicester should have enough to get Paulo Sousa off to a perfect start.

On This Day – August 7th 1999

A last minute own-goal from Frank Sinclair saw City lose their opening day match at Arsenal 2-1. City had taken the lead through a 57th minute strike from Tony Cottee, only for Denis Bergkamp to equalize eight minutes later and Sinclair’s misdirected clearance to cost City the points. It would turn out to be Sinclair’s first of two last ditch own goals in a week, meaning City started the 99/00 campaign with four points from a possible nine instead of seven.

Away Days – Can Leicester do enough on the road?

The start of the 2010/11 season will be something of a novelty for Leicester fans. Only twice in the last 10 seasons have the Foxes started the campaign away from home. More worryingly, both of those matches ended in limp defeats. The opening day of the 2005/06 season saw a 4-1 thumping at Sheffield United. This was followed by a 2-0 surrender at Luton Town to begin the 2006/07 season.

Despite my prattling on about how Leicester didn’t win a single away match by more than one goal last season, City’s away form was by no means as desperate as that statistic suggests. Indeed, 31 points away from home in the Championship is a very respectable total.

The Foxes certainly have some favourite hunting grounds. City have won five of their last seven trips to Oakwell and five of their last 10 visits to Elland Road and Vicarage Road.

Elsewhere however, points are not so easy to come by.

City have fared poorly in recent derby encounters. The Foxes have won only two of their last nine visits to Pride Park and none of their last five matches at Coventry. Most depressingly of all Leicester haven’t collected three points at the City Ground since 1972, amassing 13 trips without a win since.

It’s not just locally that City have struggled. Leicester’s last winning goalscorer at Carrow Road was Emile Heskey in 1995, five matches ago. City have no wins in five attempts at Bramall Lane, just one win in 9 away visits to Hull City, and a pathetic return of one win in 14 league matches at Portman Road.

Of the current 23 Championship grounds to which Leicester will travel this season, City have won on their last visit at 6 of them. Last season six away wins was good enough to see Blackpool promoted to the top flight through the playoffs, but we have to go all the way back to 1994/95 to find another side (Bolton Wanderers, 5 wins) for whom such average away form was sufficient for a successful promotion campaign.

Leicester are likely to need a strong return from their away fixtures to make the playoffs. To do so it looks as though they’re going to need to overcome a few bogey grounds.

The Blagger's Guide to the Championship

Excited yet? If you just can’t get enough Championship previews, allow Foxblogger to present another one. Below are some vital statistics on every Championship club. Enjoy!

Barnsley
Teams are often accused of raising their game against quality opponents, only to throw points away against beatable opposition. Barnsley were last season’s main offenders in this department, winning 32 points against teams in the top half, but only 22 against teams in the bottom half.

Bristol City
Ashton Gate was the place to see goals last season. A total of 72 were scored. Matches included 4-2 and 5-3 home wins over Preston North End and Barnsley but also saw 6-0 and 5-2 defeats at the hands of Cardiff City and Doncaster Rovers.

Burnley
Despite a good start, Burnley were unable to maintain their momentum and eventually conceded 82 goals in their only Premier League campaign. Only Derby County (89) have conceded more goals in a 38-game Premier league season. Some work for Brian Laws to do at the back, then.

Cardiff City
Of the sides that didn’t get promoted, Cardiff managed the most away wins (10). One of these was a 6-0 demolition of Bristol City, the biggest away win in the Championship since Southampton beat Wolves at Molineux by the same score in March 2007. City also hit the woodwork on 27 occasions, more than any other Championship side last season.

Coventry City
Coventry are nothing if not tediously predictable. In the last four seasons the Sky Blues have collected 54, 54, 53 and 56 points. At home they have won 8 matches in each of the last three seasons, scoring 27, 26 and 25 goals in the process. Coventry have also failed to achieve a positive goal difference in any of the last six seasons.

Crystal Palace
Palace neither soared to dizzying statistical heights nor stooped to depressing mathematical lows, but in Alan Lee they did have a player who was substituted 22 times. No Championship played was replaced more often, though Radoslaw Majewski and Paul Anderson of Nottingham Forest both were substituted as often.

Derby County
42 players were used by Derby manager Nigel Clough last season, more than any other Championship side. Only 5 outfield players started more than 30 games and just one, Robbie Savage, managed to appear in every league game.

Doncaster Rovers
Rovers’ were last season’s nice guys, committing just 405 fouls (8.8 per game) and receiving only 39 yellow cards. Perhaps the loss of Ritchie Wellens had something to do with it…

Hull City
Since 13th December 2008 Hull City have won just 7 of 60 league matches. In that time they’ve scored 49 goals and conceded 114. If any team need to remember how to win it’s the Tigers.

Ipswich Town
Roy Keane’s side drew more matches than any other Championship side last season, 20 in all. 11 of them finished 1-1, a feat only ‘bettered’ by Crystal Palace for whom 12 games finished one each. Eight draws came in Ipswich’s dismal start to the season -14 matches without a win would prove to be the longest such run of the Championship campaign. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Ipswich only won half of the matches in which they kept a clean sheet, a Championship low in 2009/10.

Leeds United
United finally achieved promotion from League One at the third attempt despite only winning seven on their final 19 league games. In fact if the season had started on 1st February, Leeds would have finished 10th. Leeds will need to recover their form from 2009 (P46 W32 D8 L6 F83 A31 Pts104) to ensure they make an impact in the Championship.

Leicester City
No side was safer with a one-goal lead than Leicester in 2009/10. City won 14 games by a single goal, more than any other Championship side. More worryingly, they failed to win a single away match by more than a one goal last season.

Middlesbrough
Gordon Strachan’s side might be favourites for the title, but they’ll need to do much better against sides in the top 10 to merit that backing. Last season Boro’ won just two of their 20 matches against teams that finished above them, and won only two points against the top six all season.

Millwall
The Lions recovered from 9th position on Boxing Day 2009 to almost snatch an automatic promotion place to the Championship. In the second half of the season Millwall won 52 points, losing only 3 games and conceding just 15 goals. Few should be looking forward to a trip to the New Den.

Norwich City
Another side in the winning habit is Norwich. Their 29 wins in 2009/10 was the highest win total in League One since Luton Town’s promotion in 2004/05. By comparison, Leicester managed 27 wins when they ran away with League One in 2008/09.

Nottingham Forest
Billy Davies’ side were ruthless at home, especially against sides in the bottom half. Forest won 11 of their 12 home matches against sides who finished in the wrong half of the table, scoring 29 and conceding just 7. These wins contributed to Forest’s 19 matches without defeat (a run which coincided with 12 successive home wins and 8 consecutive home clean sheets), the longest such sequence since Reading’s 33-match unbeaten run in 2005/06. Forest also had the season’s longest undefeated away run (13 matches).

Portsmouth
Pompey only won 18 points at home last season, the lowest total in the Premier League last season. Portsmouth also lost the most games by a single goal (13) and suffered more 1-0 defeats (7) than any other Premier league club.

Preston North End
Preston fans haven’t seen their side relegated in 18 seasons. PNE are the Championship’s longest serving tenants and have failed to gain promotion through the play-offs four times in the last 10 years, twice having made it to the final.

Queens Park Rangers
Between 30th September and 5th April QPR didn’t manage a single clean sheet in 17 away games, the worst such run since Colchester United and Southampton both conceded goals in 21 consecutive away matches in 2007/08. During QPR’s barren away spell they failed to score on 9 occasions. Whatever else Neil Warnock needs to improve, Rangers’ away form certainly needs some work.

Reading
The Royals were last season’s late bloomers, winning 40 points from their final 20 games having taken just 23 points from their first 26 matches. If they continue in that sort of form the will be in danger of breaking their own Championship points record (106).

Scunthorpe United
The Iron conceded 84 goals last season, the most for a side avoiding relegation from the Championship since Barnsley’s net rippled 85 times in 2006/07. On 13 occasions (11 away from home) Scunthorpe conceded 3 or more goals. Thanks to their lax defending Scunthorpe matches averaged 3.17 goals per game, the highest in the Championship. Conceding 11 penalties (another Championship high) and having 7 players dismissed (a record shared with QPR) can’t have helped much.

Sheffield United
Kevin Blackwell’s men committed 627 fouls and received 86 yellow cards, the former was the highest foul count in the Championship in 2009/10.

Swansea City
With just 40 goals to their name, Swansea’s strike record was the worst in the Championship. Just 7.43% of Swansea’s attempts on goal found the net, the lowest chance conversion rate in the division. Matches at The Liberty Stadium averaged a measly 1.43 goals per game.

Watford
Hornets fans should know better than to leave a game early, 16 goals (12.4%) in Watford matches last season came in the last 5 minutes.

Oxford Utd 1-1 Leicester City

A 74th minute strike from James Constable was enough to deny Leicester victory in the Foxes’ latest friendly. Constable’s left-foot finish from 10 yards cancelled out an excellent 25-yard free kick from DJ Campbell in an entertaining game at the Kassam Stadium

This time next month City will have three league games under their belt, and this match provided encouraging signs for the travelling Leicester fans. City started in a familiar 4-4-2 but less recognisable was the sight of DJ Campbell on the left wing, with Lloyd Dyer stationed on the right. The inside-out wingers almost provided instant results. On five minutes Dyer cut inside his marker to fire a left-foot shot off the far post.

Nicky Adams, once again at right-back, was given ample opportunity to break forward, allowing in turn Dyer to come inside without City sacrificing width. The fruits of this policy nearly paid off as Dyer latched on to a Howard header on 18 minutes, only to timidly nod the ball into the arms of Clarke.

On 25 minutes it was Campbell’s turn to shine. Largely out of the game until this point, he casually curled a 25-yeard free-kick over the wall and past the despairing grasp of Clarke. But despite his goal, it was clear Campbell was not enjoying his time on the left wing. Almost immediately following his goal Campbell switched to the right flank and enjoyed a much more productive half.

Throughout the first period City were keeping the ball nicely, playing passes from the back and rarely resorting to the long ball. Indeed, such was the strength of City’s passing start that Steve Howard barely got a look in. His main contribution to the half was to block a goalbound Andy King shot after Matty Fryatt had snatched the ball on the halfway line. Fryatt too was subdued, failing to deliver a telling finish despite a number of opportunities. His tame first time shot from 6 yards on the half-hour mark typified his afternoon.

Meanwhile the back line looked solid for the opening 45 minutes, only Jack Hobbs’ spooned clearance over the bar seven minutes before half time made Chris Weale sweat.

After half-time, a much different match played out. City were on the back foot early, as Chris Weale lost out in an aerial challenge and, having failed to win a free-kick, could only watch as the ball was struck wide with the goal gaping.

The comfortable possession football was replaced with a much more careless regard for the ball. In fairness, some of this was down to the much-improved pressing from the home side. But all too often City players found themselves caught in possession, struggling to find the same options that had been available in the first half.

Meanwhile the policy of allowing Nicky Adams the freedom to find the opposition touchline as often as his own inevitably caught the former Bury man out of position on occasions. In Adams’ defence it was Tom Parkes, a centre-half filling in at left-back after coming on for the excellent Bruno Berner, who was guilty of positional indiscipline for Oxford’s equaliser.

City still had chances to win it. Lloyd Dyer, having swapped flanks for the third time, was put through by Fryatt only to see his shot tipped wide. Fryatt too forced a corner after Clarke could only parry his diving header behind.

It was the sort of friendly after which managers and fans alike are keen to point out the result doesn’t matter, but as the Paulo Sousa pre-season Petri dish moves on to Peterborough expect further experimentation.

When should we be worried?

It’s fair to say that expectations at Leicester haven’t been as high as this in a good few seasons. Paulo Sousa will be expected to get results quickly and the fixtures list does him no favours at all.

City face two home fixtures in August against fellow promotion contenders and trips to two of the relegated Premier League sides in the first four away games. They’ll also have early trips to Coventry and Norwich, places they haven’t won since 2003 and 1995 respectively. Indeed, so long ago was Leicester’s last win at Norwich that it contained Emile Heskey’s first ever senior goal.

Below is a table showing Leicester’s fixtures and the last result in each match* together with a projected league table position based on last season's results. To use a golfing term, this is par for the season. To put it another way, let’s not get too worried if City aren’t in the top 10 at the end of October.



*For the purpose of this exercise I’ve taken the regular season results against Cardiff City from 2009/10.

Note: To see a full version on this spreadsheet click here.

Is the Manager of the Month Award Really Cursed?

Football has many wonderful aphorisms which fans can call upon when poor play besets their team. “You’re always vulnerable when you’ve just scored” and “We always concede late goals” are two of my particular favourites.

In fact to call them aphorisms is a touch misleading, aphorisms are supposed to point towards a general truth. Most matches are not filled with late winners and equalisers, nor are most goals responded to in kind by the opposition in seconds – football is all the more exciting because these occurrences are rare and noteworthy.

The Manager of the Month Award is another facet of the game which has its own received wisdom – winners of the award promptly go on to lose their next match. Leicester fans will be acutely aware if this quirk. Four Leicester managers have won a total of eight Manager of the Month Awards between them since 1996. Martin O'Neil (3), Peter Taylor (1) and Rob Kelly (1) all failed to win their next match. Nigel Pearson won just one match immediately following his three Manager of the Month Awards at the club.

So far the 'curse' theory is looking quite convincing, but a wider canvas gives a rather different picture.

Since the 2004/05 a total of 54 Manager of the Month awards have been made in the Championship. Their recipients have gone on in their next league fixture to win 21, draw 11 and lose 22.

If there is a curse, it doesn't seem to be affecting anyone else too badly. That's just typical of Leicester, isn't it?