Match Preview – Middlesbrough

It can’t have been much fun being a Middlesbrough fan over the last few years. Last season the club finished in 11th position. Hardly catastrophic perhaps, but put yourself in the position of a ‘Boro fan. The last time you saw your club finish lower was when a final day win at home to Newcastle was just enough to see your boys avoid relegation to the third tier in the 1989/90 season. You’ve just watched your club sack a manager who (at the time) had taken your club to 4th in the league, just one point off top spot and averaging 1.77 points per game. You see him replaced by a new boss who builds on these foundations by winning 9 of your remaining 32 league matches at a rate of 1.19 points per game. This is form which, if it had been replicated over the whole season, would have seen you finish 16th. You spend the summer investing in new players, you’re one of the few teams in the division able to spend money. You head to your first home game full of opening day optimism. Your side takes the lead, those title odds don’t look so silly any more, the misery and years of decline at the club could be coming to an end…and then you lose 3-1.

So where do things need to improve for Strachan’s side? Perhaps more than anything else they need to improve in the big games. 'Boro won just two of their 20 matches against Championship teams who finished above them last season. The side didn't win a single game against the top six, taking just two points from a possible 36.

Its been a while since ‘Boro beat the Foxes too, eight years in fact, and even then Leicester had to do the work for the home side courtesy of a 35-yard own goal from Frank Sinclair. The Foxes were one of four teams to do the double over the Teessiders last season.

But Strachan can point to some good signs. His team won 27 points on the road in 2009/10, a very decent return. In addition his side can have few complaints with referees. ‘Boro won 10 penalties last season and conceded just 3. Only Reading (11) won more spot kicks last term.

On The Day – 14th August 1998

Frank Sinclair completed his move from Chelsea to Leicester for what was then a club record fee of £2.55m. Exactly one year later he would score for his former club in the dying seconds to deny City their second win of the 1999/00 season. It finished Leicester 2-2 Chelsea.

Attack and Defense

City have scored six goals and conceded as many in just two matches. At the start of last season it took Nigel Pearson’s side five matches to net six goals and eight games to concede the same number. Meanwhile Paulo Sousa’s Swansea took six games to score six goals and five matches to let in as many. In short, this is not what we expected.

In light of this goal bonanza it’s worth marking the following points of reference for anyone thinking City might be on for a record breaking season up front or at the back. The record number of league goals scored by City in a single season came in 1956/57 when the Foxes scored 109 times. City thoroughly deserved their promotion that year, but the harsh realities of their first season back in the top division led to Leicester shipping more goals than in any season before or since, 112 in total.

In modern times, the 2008/09 promotion campaign (84 goals) is the closest City have come to the record, and even that is only the club's 13th highest scoring season. Meanwhile the 83 goals shipped in the 1990/91 campaign is the club’s worst record in recent history. Coincidentally in both the 1957/58 and the 1990/91 seasons the Foxes avoided relegation thanks to 1-0 victories in their final match.

But two records were broken last night. The match contained seven goals, a new high for a competitive game at the Walkers Stadium. Sadly the record was broken in front of a crowd on just 6,142, the lowest for a competitive match at City’s new home.

Leicester and the League Cup

It’s now more than ten years since Martin O’Neil’s Leicester side lifted the League Cup. Since then City’s record in the competition has seen few shocks, but a few memorable cup nights.

Macclesfield fans looking for evidence of a surprise this evening need to go back to 1st November 2000 to find the last time Leicester lost a League Cup match to a side from a lower division. That night Peter Taylor’s City were dumped out of the competition in the 3rd Round by Crystal Palace, a side who on the night sat 23rd in what was then Division One. Following that shock City have faced 10 clubs from a lower division in the League Cup and progressed in every single tie.

Perhaps surprisingly tonight’s League Cup home tie will only be Leicester’s 9th in 11 seasons. The Foxes have won four and lost four League Cup ties on home soil in that time. On the road City have played 16 games, winning 10.

Since winning the competition the furthest Leicester have progressed is the last 16. City fans hoping for a cup run will not be surprised at the Foxes one win in six against teams from a higher division. Matty Fryatt’s winner at Aston Villa in 2007 was the only occasion since 2000 that City have shocked Premier League opposition

This is not to say Leicester’s League Cup exploits have not been entertaining. Narrow defeats at Fulham and Chelsea and an extra-time exit at the hands of Aston Villa in particular have been standout moments from the last 10 years. These high-scoring encounters (3-2, 4-3 and 2-3 respectively) have in part contributed to an impressive average of 3.04 goals per City League Cup match.

What has been of more concern for the competition as a whole is the lacklustre attendances in the early rounds. Sadly City’s record here mirrors that of the nation. 7,386 watched City’s last 1st Round League Cup tie at home to Stockport in 2008. The last time Macclesfield visited the Walkers Stadium in the 1st Round of the 2006/07 season just 6,298 showed up. A 2nd Round home tie with Blackpool attracted 7,386 in 2005 and at the same stage in 2004 the 3-2 extra-time defeat to Preston was watched by 6,751.

It wasn’t always like this. The 2nd Round second leg game against Crystal Palace in 1999 attracted 12,762 and in the next round 13,701 saw the Foxes beat Grimsby 2-0. A year earlier 13,480 watched the 2nd Round first leg match with Chesterfield. It’s hard not to think that £12 ticket prices for games which used to be included in the season ticket is part of the reason for the declining crowds. Perhaps the club takes in more ticket revenue this way, but I wonder if City would have done better in League Cup ties at home if the players had been backed by a decent crowd.

My Question for Paulo Sousa

As anyone who has listened to BBC Radio Leicester over the last week will surely be aware, Paulo Sousa will be appearing on the Football Forum tonight. You’ll be able to listen to it on the BBC Leicester website from 6 p.m.

Since I’ll be on a train when the Football Forum is broadcast I thought I’d post a question online in the hope it might be read out. Regardless of whether it actually does, I’m looking forward to hearing from the man himself. It should be a very interesting hour.

My question:

Paulo, much has been made of the playing style of the two sides you have managed in England thus far. I want to ask you about the approach you take when your side is in the lead.

During your spell at QPR the side dropped 9 points from winning positions. Likewise at Swansea last season the team dropped 18 points after leading in league games. In addition, 8 of the 37 goals Swansea conceded last term came in the last five minutes.

Over the coming weeks and months I’m looking forward to seeing Leicester create plenty of chances and score goals. After watching the second half performance at Crystal Palace I’m confident we have the players to do just that.

But how will Leicester approach the game after taking the lead? Will Leicester under your management attempt to hold what they have, or will we try to put teams to the sword?

Great City Fightbacks

It's now 15 years since Leicester won an opening day match on the road. At half time in yesterday's match I struggled to remember City overturning big deficits to win points away from home. The last time the Foxes recovered from 2-0 down on the road was a 2-2 draw at Watford in 2005. I think I'm right in saying the last time City took a point after being 3 goals behind was the 4-4 draw at Aston Villa in the 1994/95 season, Leicester having been 4-1 behind with around 12 minutes to go.

So great comebacks on the road have been few and far between. But hope is at hand. Losing on the opening day hasn't stopped City promotion campaigns in the past.

Between the wars the Foxes managed this twice. In the 1924/25 season City lost 1-0 at Manchester United and were beaten four times in their opening seven matches. Despite the dismal start, Leicester went on to take the Division Two title by two points from the Red Devils after losing just one game from the beginning of December to the end of the season.

The opening day of the 1936/37 season saw City go down to a 2-1 defeat at home to Blackpool. The Foxes started the season with six defeats in their first ten matches but still went on to take the title.

More recently Leicester lost 1-0 at home to Cardiff City to begin the 1970/71 campaign. However, it proved to be one of only two home defeats all season. The Foxes went unbeaten for the rest of the season following their only other home loss on the 16th January 1971 to secure promotion.

Perhaps City's best recovery came in the 1982/83 season. Charlton were the visitors to Filbert Street on the opening day and took all three points courtesy of a 2-1 win. Leicester lost four of their opening seven games that year and by the end of November found themselves in 15th position with just 20 points.

On the 19th February 1983 the Foxes suffered their 12th defeat if the season. It was a result that left them in 6th place, 12 points adrift of 3rd placed Fulham. But that defeat would prove to be City's last of the season and on the final day a goalless draw at home to relegated Burnley was enough to secure promotion after Fulham went down to a 1-0 defeat at Derby.

Of Leicester's 12 successful promotion campaigns, four came after opening day defeats. After yesterday's second half performance, there's still hope that this season can be a positive one too.

Match Preview – Crystal Palace

If you had to pick an away trip for the first game of the season, you could do a lot worse than Crystal Palace. Selhurst Park is no longer the fortress it once was, with successive managers failing to capture satisfactory home form.

In 2005/06 the Eagles won 13 matches and took 45 points at home. Since then their points return from home fixtures has read 39, 36, 35 and last season, 29.

In 2005/06 Palace scored 39 league goals at home. In the following seasons they have managed 33, 31, 26 and 24. Only Swansea and Plymouth scored fewer at home than the Eagles in 2009/10.

If the above has failed to convince you of how poor Crystal Palace were at home last season then the fact that 10 Championship sides, including Leicester, left Selhurst Park with all three points should do the trick. Only Plymouth and Peterborough lost more games at home last term.

Leicester have won seven league matches at Selhurst Park, but last season’s victory was the club’s first since 1998. The match was also notable from a statistical point of view as City retained 64% of the possession, the highest share they would control in the whole on the 2009/10 season.

It was the sort of ball retention that Paulo Sousa will be hoping his side can recreate on a regular basis this season. Sousa’s own record at Selhurst Park is encouraging too. In just his third game in charge of QPR his side claimed a goalless draw, then his Swansea team took a 1-0 win last season.

One point to note is that the game will be overseen by Mr K A Woolmer who awarded 4 penalties last season in the Championship, all of them for the home side.

As the season begins every supporter has high hopes. These are both clubs who have experience in reaching the playoffs. Crystal Palace (17) are the only team to have played in more Championship playoff matches than Leicester (14). But it seems like only one of these clubs has any realistic hope of reaching the playoffs this year. Leicester should have enough to get Paulo Sousa off to a perfect start.

On This Day – August 7th 1999

A last minute own-goal from Frank Sinclair saw City lose their opening day match at Arsenal 2-1. City had taken the lead through a 57th minute strike from Tony Cottee, only for Denis Bergkamp to equalize eight minutes later and Sinclair’s misdirected clearance to cost City the points. It would turn out to be Sinclair’s first of two last ditch own goals in a week, meaning City started the 99/00 campaign with four points from a possible nine instead of seven.

Away Days – Can Leicester do enough on the road?

The start of the 2010/11 season will be something of a novelty for Leicester fans. Only twice in the last 10 seasons have the Foxes started the campaign away from home. More worryingly, both of those matches ended in limp defeats. The opening day of the 2005/06 season saw a 4-1 thumping at Sheffield United. This was followed by a 2-0 surrender at Luton Town to begin the 2006/07 season.

Despite my prattling on about how Leicester didn’t win a single away match by more than one goal last season, City’s away form was by no means as desperate as that statistic suggests. Indeed, 31 points away from home in the Championship is a very respectable total.

The Foxes certainly have some favourite hunting grounds. City have won five of their last seven trips to Oakwell and five of their last 10 visits to Elland Road and Vicarage Road.

Elsewhere however, points are not so easy to come by.

City have fared poorly in recent derby encounters. The Foxes have won only two of their last nine visits to Pride Park and none of their last five matches at Coventry. Most depressingly of all Leicester haven’t collected three points at the City Ground since 1972, amassing 13 trips without a win since.

It’s not just locally that City have struggled. Leicester’s last winning goalscorer at Carrow Road was Emile Heskey in 1995, five matches ago. City have no wins in five attempts at Bramall Lane, just one win in 9 away visits to Hull City, and a pathetic return of one win in 14 league matches at Portman Road.

Of the current 23 Championship grounds to which Leicester will travel this season, City have won on their last visit at 6 of them. Last season six away wins was good enough to see Blackpool promoted to the top flight through the playoffs, but we have to go all the way back to 1994/95 to find another side (Bolton Wanderers, 5 wins) for whom such average away form was sufficient for a successful promotion campaign.

Leicester are likely to need a strong return from their away fixtures to make the playoffs. To do so it looks as though they’re going to need to overcome a few bogey grounds.