Match Review: Millwall

Early season setbacks are nothing new to Foxes fans. Those with good memories will remember the early 1-0 reverse at Tranmere in 1993/94, the 3-2 home defeat to Stoke in 1995/96 and the 6-1 thumping at Ipswich in 2002/03.

Nevertheless, this was a poor performance and City will need to bounce back quickly. Leicester cannot afford to be bullied out of too many games at home this season.

Here are some numbers…

9 – The average number of defeats teams since 2004/05 have suffered in League One whilst clinching an automatic promotion spot. Luton Town had the lowest number of defeats in this period (6) whilst in the same season Hull City lost on 12 occasions but managed to finish 2nd. Last season both Swansea and Nottingham Forest lost 8 times.

4 – The number of City’s opening fixtures against top-half opposition. Leicester have taken 7 points from these games. One of the reasons City fans should not be too concerned by the table at this stage is the way opening fixtures can lead to false positions in the table. Walsall in 7th place, for instance, have only played one team in the top half so far. Hereford fans should really worry, their side lies 23rd and has yet to play any side in the top half.

6 – The number of red cards drawn from the top pockets of League One referees this weekend. Millwall have been reduced to 10 men on two occasions this season, have received 23 yellow cards and committed 111 fouls. They are by far the most ill disciplined team in League One. In contrast Leicester have committed 52 fouls, the 3rd fewest in the division.

Note: Due to the inept people at BT Broadband, Foxblogger will be without an Internet connection until Monday 22nd September. Normal service will resume after this date, but for those looking for a quick stat on the Leyton Orient game, the match pitches League One’s meanest defence (2 conceded) against the division’s most feeble attack (4 goals, failed to score in 4 games). City won’t have a better opportunity to bounce straight back from last weekend’s disappointment.

Match Preview: Millwall

It’s an early kick-off at the Walkers this weekend for the visit of Millwall. Leicester's stay at the top of the table may not have lasted due to international call-ups but the Foxes have the chance to briefly reclaim first place in League One thanks to the 13:00 start.

Previous Meetings
Matches against the Lions have proven profitable in recent years. The last encounter in 2005 may have ended in a 1-1 draw but prior to that the Foxes had won five in a row at home to Millwall. City put at least three goals past a succession of despairing Milwall keepers (Kasey Keller among them) on all but one of those occasions.

In all competitions Leicester have 14 wins, the Lions 10, and there have been a further 8 draws.

Reasons To Be Confident
Leicester City haven’t lost at home to Millwall since 1991. Millwall have failed to win at either Filbert Street or the Walkers Stadium in their last seven attempts, scoring just five and conceding 18.

Despite sitting in a respectable 7th place, Millwall have yet to record an away victory this season. The Lions managed five away victories in 2007/08, the 17th best (or 8th worst, depending how you look at it) away record in League One.

Andy King and Nicky Adams played the full 90 minutes in Wales U21’s 3-0 win in Romania, no doubt building confidence. With Aleksander Tunchev coming through International duty unscathed too, City have no additional injury worries.

Reasons To Be Worried
Leicester City are not early risers. They have performed poorly in early kick-offs for a number of years. In the last six seasons City have played 17 competitive fixtures before 15:00, wining only one. The Foxes have lost a staggering 12 of these matches, scoring nine and conceding a whopping 28.

Millwall arrive at the Walkers in good form. Following their opening day reverse they are undefeated in four, winning their last two. But for a late collapse against Oldham on the opening day when they turned a 73rd minute 3-1 advantage into a 4-3 defeat, this match might have been a battle for top spot.

Like Leicester, Millwall start matches strongly. If matches ended at half-time, Millwall would have exactly the same number of points as they have in reality - eight.

On This Day
Leicester hosted Tottenham Hotspur at Filbert Street in front of the Match Of The Day cameras and duly thumped their opponents 3-0. Steve Walsh, Emile Heskey and a thunderbolt from Steve Guppy gave City all three points. The result lifted City to 5th in the early 1997/98 Premiership table.

Selected Odds
Leicester – 8/13 (Bet365)
Draw – 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Millwall – 5/1 (Bet365)

The season so far...

With this weekend’s trip to Colchester called off due to international call-ups, it’s a good opportunity to take stock of the season so far. Some facts have been repeated many times before but are worth doing so again; Leicester are unbeaten in League One and possess the best defensive record in the division.

Nigel Pearson has been named Manager of the Month, and deservedly so. He’s produced results, but much more importantly he’s changed the atmosphere around the Walkers Stadium. This season the club feels like the home of professionals. What Pearson lacks in a sense of humour, he makes up for with a sense of direction.

Some players have performed way above expectations. Matty Fryatt in particular has made a mockery of his career record of 0.26 goals per game with six goals in six appearances.

Others have provided just what was hoped of them. Max Gradel and Lloyd Dyer have excited the Foxes faithful with an energy and creativity not seen at the Walkers since the days of Muzzy Izzet. Michael Morrison deserves attention too having stepped up two divisions and coped admirably. Morrison has no doubt aided by the experience of Alexander Tunchev and the ability of Jack Hobbs.

The numbers say this has equalled City’s best start to a season in the post-war era, but there are also other telling statistics…

Shots
In all games but the JPT trip to Hartlepool, City have made more attempts on goal than their opponents. City have made 81 efforts on goal so far this season with just over half (43) being on target. By contrast, Leicester’s opponents have managed just 43 attempts on goal, with 31 of those working the keeper. City’s goals to shots ratio is 0.19, for their opponents it has been 0.09.

When broken down by individual players the numbers look positive for Matty Fryatt. His 18 shots (12 on target) have resulted in six goals, a strike rate of 0.33. Steve Howard’s 14 attempts (8 on target) have produced 3 goals, a strike rate of 0.21.

Possession
Leicester are much better at using the ball effectively this season. In three of their four League One games they have kept the ball better than their opponents. Some may argue that possession is nine tenths of the law, but City have managed to win 2 of the 3 games this season when they have seen less of the ball. At Hartlepool in particular, City had just 44% of the possession, but managed to leave Victoria Park with a 3-0 victory.

Discipline
City have received just five yellow cards in all competitions so far this season, this despite committing more misdemeanours than their opponents. Leicester have committed 90 fouls in the campaign so far, their opponents 74. Perhaps one explanation for this discrepancy is the number of fouls committed by Steve Howard, who has managed to accumulate a total of 23 offences already this season, almost all for jumping unfairly with defenders.

Assists
Another positive is the number of different players credited already with assists this season. Eight Leicester players have assists to their name already in 2008/09, a record only Oldham can equal. It is probably no coincidence that the player with the most assists in League One (Mark Wright) comes from MK Dons, a team that has just three players with assists this season. One of the Foxes biggest strengths this year is that their goals really can come from anywhere on the pitch.

This really has been an excellent start to the 2008/09 campaign. History shows that when Leicester start well, they keep up the momentum.

Let’s hope history repeats itself.

Match Preview – Hartlepool Utd (Johnstone’s Paint Trophy First Round)

Is it ever right to root against your team? That must be the question nagging many Foxes fan’s thoughts. Does the greater good apply? Should we hope for a post-match interview from Nigel Pearson featuring the time old cliché “concentrate on the League”?

Lacking any true credentials, the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy demands respect, literally. Each team must field at least 6 regular first team players in its starting line-up, no exceptions. It’s the kind of rule which conveys exactly the opposite of what the Football League hopes to project. Instead of creating a tournament of willing contenders, we have a competition of coerced clubs. It is a distraction few fans want and even fewer attend. Unsurprisingly, no broadcaster has seen fit to buy TV rights for anything but the final.

Below is a list of finals Football League Trophy Finals in the 21st Century with the final league positions of the finalists.

1999/00 - Stoke City (6th L1) vs Bristol City (9th L1)
2000/01 - Port Vale (11th L1) vs Brentford (14th L1)
2001/02 - Blackpool (15th L1) vs Cambridge Utd (24th L1)
2002/03 - Bristol City (3rd L1) vs Carlisle Utd (22nd L2)
2003/04 - Blackpool (14th L1) vs Southend Utd (17th L2)
2004/05 - Wrexham (22nd L1) vs Southend Utd (4th L2)
2005/06 - Swansea City (6th L1) vs Carlisle Utd (1st L1)
2006/07 - Doncaster Rovers (11th L1) vs Bristol Rovers (6th L2)
2007/08 - MK Dons (1st L2) vs Grimsby Town (16th L2)

No finalist in the Football League Trophy has been promoted to the Championship this century.

Defeat is an option, in fact it is the option. It might be the only time City fans can hedge their bets by backing Leicester.

Selected Odds
Hartlepool – 2/1 (Totesport)
Draw – 12/5 (Bet365)
Leicester – 13/10 (William Hill)

Match Review: Cheltenham Town

Was there ever any doubt? City end August in top spot after a commendable start to life in League One. 1,782 Leicester fans saw City triumph at Whaddon Road, a ground that as we mentioned saw many casualties last season. It’s unlikely Leicester will remain in 1st place come next Saturday thanks to the postponement of the trip to Colchester, so enjoy it while it lasts.

As always, here are some numbers to digest…

5 – The number years it has been since Leicester City were top of any table. A 1-1 draw at Rotherham United put City top of Division One on 12th April 2003 after Portsmouth (who had led the league all season) slipped to a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday. In 2000, a goalless draw with Sunderland at the Stadium of Light was enough to leave the Foxes top of the Premier League for a glorious 13 days from 1st-13th October 2000. Manchester United quickly brought City back down to earth with a 3-0 victory at Filbert Street to replace City at the summit.

11 – The number of seasons you have to go back to find a Leicester City away win as big as this one. On 26th April 1998 the Foxes travelled to Pride Park and found themselves 4-0 up inside 15 minutes. There was no such madness at Whaddon Road, but this was City’s biggest away win in over a decade.

9 – The number of points the Foxes have won after leading at halftime. This a 100% record which isn’t too staggering in itself, but shown with last season’s statistics reveals an interesting pattern. In 2007/08 the Foxes led at halftime on 10 occasions - nine of these matches were won, with one drawn. Leicester’s record of converting halftime leads into victories was the second in the Championship only to Stoke. The Potters didn’t drop a single point once ahead at halftime. So, if you want a good bet this season, Leicester-Leicester as a double result looks pretty safe.

Match Preview: Cheltenham Town

Cheltenham has always been more famous for its racecourse than its football team. Few City supporters would have pencilled in Whaddon Road as a highlight of City’s away calendar but the Foxes must take points from places such as this. With a win tomorrow City have a chance to establish themselves as pacesetters in League One.

Previous Meetings
Cheltenham have only been part of the Football League since 1999 and the two sides have never met in a competitive fixture. For what it’s worth, The Robins were defeated 2-0 by City in a 2007 pre-season friendly thanks to goals from Matty Fryatt and Darren Kenton.

Reasons To Be Confident
Cheltenham have leaked goals at a rather alarming rate so far this season. In their first three league games they’ve conceded four on two occasions.

Cheltenham did not win a single game last season in which they trailed at halftime. If Leicester start well, they could seal victory early.

Cheltenham will once again be fighting to avoid the drop this year having finished 17th and 19th in their last two campaigns. There is little to suggest from their opening to the season that The Robins will pose a real threat to Leicester. Cheltenham scored just 42 times in League One last season, the second lowest total in the division.

Reasons To Be Worried
Whaddon Road is by no means an easy place for away sides to take three points. In the absence of away form in 2007/08, Cheltenham survived by being difficult to beat at home. Only five sides won at Whaddon Road last season.

Michael Morrison will face former Cambridge Utd teammate Ben Gill in tomorrow’s match. Gill has opened the season with some lively performances as an attacking midfielder. He scored the winner deep into extra time in Cheltenham’s Carling Cup 1st Round win at Southend before finding the net again and receiving a red card in the home win against Swindon just five days later. The 20 year old promises to be a handful.

Of the 10 games in which Cheltenham were level at halftime in 2007/08, they won six and lost only 3. In terms of points per game, this was the second best record in League One.

Miscellaneous Fact
Cheltenham Town have gone 10 games since their last draw.

On This Day
Leicester’s uninspiring start to the 2004/05 season continued with a televised defeat at home to Brighton & Hove Albion. Adam Virgo’s first half effort was enough to defeat a lacklustre Leicester side.

Overall playing record for 30 August;
Played 23, Won 8, Drawn 2, Lost 13, Scored 32, Conceded 37.

Selected Odds
Cheltenham – 13/5 (Bet365)
Draw – 5/2 (Coral)
Leicester – 11/10 (Sportingbet)

Match Review: Fulham (League Cup Second Round)

As heartbreaking as last night’s game was, there are yet again positives to be taken from the performance of Nigel Pearson’s team. But for a couple of cruel deflections City might well have been heading for the 3rd Round of the Carling Cup, and who really thought that was possible at 19:15 yesterday when we learned City’s midfield pairing would be Andy King and James Wesolowski?

Here are some numbers…

90 – Five of City’s last six cup exits have come as a result of last minute strikes. Southampton started the rot in 2006 with a 1-0 win at the Walkers in the 3rd Round of the 2005/06 FA Cup. Since then Aston Villa, Fulham (twice) and Chelsea have dumped Leicester out of cup competitions thanks to efforts in the dying seconds.

-4 – The net number of points City lost as a result of late goals last season. City scored in the 88th minute or later only twice during the league campaign, yet conceded seven in the same timeframe. We all remember the stats from 2003/04 which showed Leicester halfway up the Premier League table had matches ended at 80 minutes, and it was late goals which cost the Foxes again last season. Nigel Pearson will have to ensure last night was a blip, he can scarcely afford the throwaway culture of 2007/08 to haunt City this season.

8 – The number of points City took from losing positions in 2007/08. It’s a statistic that has been highlighted on Foxblogger before but last night was the first time City had gone behind under Nigel Pearson and they showed great character to take the lead after the break. Ultimately Premier League quality won the day, but Leicester fans can take heart in knowing the Foxes will not collapse if they concede first this season.