Match Preview: Reading

Two sides that have made less than impressive starts chase their first win on Sky TV. Leicester welcome the cameras to the Walkers Stadium for the first time this season. Already the Foxes are scheduled to appear four times on TV before the end of November. That’s well on the way to matching last season’s 10 appearances on the box, in which the Foxes won four, drew three and lost three.

The conventional wisdom is that TV games lead to lower attendances. That wasn’t the case in 2009/10. Last season’s average attendance across all 22 home league matches (including the playoffs) was 23,943, the City matches on TV had average gates of 25,216. That said, City’s sluggish start could lead to a diminished turnout.

Reading have taken seven points from their last three visits to the Walkers Stadium. Of the current Championship crop only Burnley and Preston (three consecutive league wins at the Walkers) can better the Royals recent record.

But the history between the two sides is short. The only side in the Championship the City have faced fewer times than Reading (15 matches in all competitions) is Scunthorpe (8 matches).

Despite this, the Foxes will want to get even after last season’s result. Reading snatched all three points at the Walkers thanks to a late penalty. The Berkshire side were the side awarded 11 spot kicks last season, more than any other Championship team.

Before the season SkyBet offered 11/2 that this match would bring Paulo Sousa’s first league win. I wonder how much the manager would give for his first victory now?

Match Preview: Leeds Utd

I was there.

I was there when Harry Kewell made it Leicester 0-6 Leeds the last time these two sides met in the League Cup.

If there was ever a match to leave early it was that one, but I stayed until the end to witness City’s biggest cup defeat at home. I'm like that.

Annoyingly I wasn’t there for the happier recent cup meetings with Leeds. Two goals in the last two minutes snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Round 4 of the 98/99 season. I also missed the 4-2 win on penalties at the same stage of the competition in 1999. When things like that happen it makes every fan question whether they are an omen. For those of you interested in tracking such things the excellent Doing The 92 website helps in showing just how (un)fortunate you are.

For what it’s worth Leicester feature in another part of the Leeds United record book. City suffered an 8-0 defeat at Elland Road in April 1934. It remains Leeds United’s biggest ever home league win.

But Elland Road hasn’t been so intimidating in recent years. The Foxes have won on five of their last 10 visits and have scored at least once in each of those games. A goal for Leeds however, will be the clubs 200th against the Foxes in all competitions.

Is this the end for Matty Fryatt?

The absence of Matty Fryatt from today’s squad has surprised quite a few City fans. As City failed to find the back of the net in their first home game it came as no surprise that some chose to criticise Paulo Sousa's decision to leave Leicester's top scorer of the last decade on the bench.

After Fryatt's jaw found itself subject to the business end of Brian Stock’s shoulder the former Walsall man missed almost all of City's charge to the playoffs. In that time the Foxes have chosen to move away from the 4-4-2 which suited Fryatt and instead played a 4-3-3/4-5-1. Under Sousa this has been refined further to a 4-2-3-1, with Oakley and Wellens anchoring the midfield and Steve Howard operating as a lone front man.

With the return of DJ Campbell to the ranks and the signing of Frank Moussa, Leicester have the players to make this system work. Dyer and Campbell, Moussa and N’Guessean are able to cover sufficient ground to tend to defensive duties when City don't have the ball, but quickly become active forward players when the Foxes are in possession. With Steve Howard leading the line as the preferred striker and Leon Crncic his preferred replacement, this leaves Fryatt without a role. He lacks the mobility to shift the wide players or the aerial ability to replace Howard.

Fryatt operates best on the shoulder of the last defender. He has the uncanny knack of finding space in the penalty area. But for all his goals, Fryatt’s game is lacking in precisely the areas he needs to excel under Sousa. He makes, as Sousa might say, poor decisions. He dribbles when he should spread the play, makes runs down blind alleys and takes forever to look up and assess the options with the ball at his feet.

The opening 45 minutes at Crystal Palace really, ahem, crystallised these points. Fryatt’s control let him down, slowing the play to a standstill. Having allowed defenders to get behind the ball he was left with a series of unappetising options. More often than not, he gave the ball away.

If City are to stick with 4-2-3-1 Fryatt might not be long for the Walkers Stadium.

Match Preview: Burnley

One of the great things about football is its capacity for surprise. It’s also one of the perils of running a blog based largely on historical statistics: past form does not equal future performance. In the case of Burnley vs. Leicester, one can only hope that this is true. Those looking for reasons as to why this will be the must see fixture of the weekend, look away now.

The last eight matches between Burnley and Leicester have produced seven goals. There have been two goalless draws followed by five consecutive 1-0 scorelines. The last meeting between the two sides finished a comparative goalfest, a 1-1 draw. Ian Hume scored City’s equaliser in that match; he is the only Leicester player to have scored against Burnley in the last eight matches between the sides.

Incidentally, that draw was the first time both teams had scored in the same match since 2003. The last time both teams scored more than one goal in the same game was in December 1982. If you’re looking to place a bet, I strongly advise you to look at the over/under markets.

With goals at a premium we might not witness this on Saturday, but the next goal from either Burnley or Leicester will be the 300th in matches between the two sides.

As it stands fans are likely to see more cards than goals. The match official, Mr G Eltringham, has dished out eight yellow and two red cards in his first three games this season. This will be only his second match officiating at Championship level.

But here’s one fact to cling to, there hasn’t been a goalless draw at Turf Moor since 22nd November 2008. Mind you, if it is a stalemate at least the Foxes will avoid equalling their worst start to the season since 2001/02 and their worst start in the second tier since 1949/50.

How long do City have to get it right?

Foxes midfielder Ritchie Wellens made some interesting comments in yesterday’s Leicester Mercury. Asked about the sides’ performances he said,

"I still don't think we have reached our peak, I think we can play a lot, lot more. Sometimes it is just too easy to pump the ball up to Steve Howard or hit the channels.

"I think we have more in the locker because we have good players who can play.

"I think in the next five or six games you will see that. The first couple of games are tough but after five or six the quality will come through."

Do City have that long to shape up? Certainly. No season is lost in the first half a dozen games. But if Sousa’s style fails to make an immediate impact on City’s form (perfectly possible, and should I add, understandable) how long will it before aspirational talk of building for next season takes precedence over the current campaign?

There are quite a few examples of sides making poor starts in the Championship but still forging successful campaigns. It’s easy to forget that Nottingham Forest won just seven points from the opening eight matches last season.

Oft cited examples of recovery come in the shape of Sunderland and Crystal Palace. The former lost the opening four matches of the 2006/07 season and struggled to 17th place after 16 games. Despite being 14 points adrift of leaders, the Black Cats went on to win the title.

First impressions were also deceiving in 2004/05, Sunderland took five points from their first six fixtures but went on to win the division by seven points.

Crystal Palace twice made improbable runs for the playoffs in recent seasons. In 2007/08 the Eagles had managed just two wins from their first 16 games and were 11 points adrift of the playoffs in 23rd place. They finished 6th regardless.

Palace also made the playoffs despite opening the 2003/04 season with just 22 points from 22 games. The Eagles were 3rd bottom, 13 points off 6th, but recovered with an incredible run and secured a famous promotion through the playoffs.

They were not alone that year. Ipswich made the playoffs after beginning the campaign with just two points from their opening six matches. A start which had put them 9 points adrift of the top six.

Unfortunately for fans witnessing their sides make poor starts, the successful revivals are all too rare. Often sides leave themselves with too much to do. Last season’s hopefuls were Reading, who dragged themselves from the relegation places and made an admirable dash for 6th. But in truth, an 18 point gap (as it was in late January) was an insurmountable one, and the Royals finished seven points behind 6th placed Blackpool.

By contrast Ian Holloway’s side were never more than six points off the playoff picture, which made their end of season run (19 points from their final eight fixtures) a successful one.

Several clubs have overcome similar deficits to reach the playoffs. Preston managed to overcome seven and eight point gaps in 2004/05 and 2005/06 respectively. Derby and Hull both recovered from six points behind the playoff places, the former in 2004/05 and the latter in their promotion season, 2007/08.

That said, it’s never really been Leicester’s style to stage a miracle run to promotion. Almost every single Leicester side which has made the playoffs (or has been promoted automatically) since the war has not dropped out of the top half of the table after August.

The one exception to this was 1982/83, where the club climbed from 15th place on the 27th November to snatch 3rd place and the final promotion spot from Fulham. 1982/83 was also the last season in which City were promoted having lost on the opening day.

Paulo Sousa’s side clearly have time to get things right. And there have been positive signs if not points on the board. But if after the clocks go back City are more than two wins from the top six, it’ll be hope more than experience that keeps the playoff flame burning.

See Also:
How Important Is August?
When Should We Be Worried?

Stalemate

Foxes fans present at Tuesday’s Carling Cup victory over Macclesfield, the highest scoring competitive match at the Walkers Stadium, will not have expected today’s encounter fail to produce goals. Nevertheless Leicester and Middlesbrough played out the Championship’s first goalless draw of the season and the 8th stalemate between the two sides.

This was Paulo Sousa’s 18th goalless draw as a manager in the English game and the 24th 0-0 to be played out at the Walkers Stadium. Leicester haven’t managed to go an entire season without a goalless draw since 1999/00.

Meanwhile, Middlesbrough have yet to score at the Walkers in three attempts, two of these matches have finished scoreless.

In non goalless draw related news, Steve Howard made his 100th appearance for the Foxes today. Of the current squad only Matt Oakley, Andy King, Matty Fryatt and Jack Hobbs have featured in more games.

Next week City travel to Burnley. The last eight meetings between the two sides have produced just seven goals. Burnley haven’t scored more than one goal against City in the last 13 meetings between the two sides. The last meeting in which both sides more than one goal came in December 1982. So, 5-4 anyone?

Match Preview – Middlesbrough

It can’t have been much fun being a Middlesbrough fan over the last few years. Last season the club finished in 11th position. Hardly catastrophic perhaps, but put yourself in the position of a ‘Boro fan. The last time you saw your club finish lower was when a final day win at home to Newcastle was just enough to see your boys avoid relegation to the third tier in the 1989/90 season. You’ve just watched your club sack a manager who (at the time) had taken your club to 4th in the league, just one point off top spot and averaging 1.77 points per game. You see him replaced by a new boss who builds on these foundations by winning 9 of your remaining 32 league matches at a rate of 1.19 points per game. This is form which, if it had been replicated over the whole season, would have seen you finish 16th. You spend the summer investing in new players, you’re one of the few teams in the division able to spend money. You head to your first home game full of opening day optimism. Your side takes the lead, those title odds don’t look so silly any more, the misery and years of decline at the club could be coming to an end…and then you lose 3-1.

So where do things need to improve for Strachan’s side? Perhaps more than anything else they need to improve in the big games. 'Boro won just two of their 20 matches against Championship teams who finished above them last season. The side didn't win a single game against the top six, taking just two points from a possible 36.

Its been a while since ‘Boro beat the Foxes too, eight years in fact, and even then Leicester had to do the work for the home side courtesy of a 35-yard own goal from Frank Sinclair. The Foxes were one of four teams to do the double over the Teessiders last season.

But Strachan can point to some good signs. His team won 27 points on the road in 2009/10, a very decent return. In addition his side can have few complaints with referees. ‘Boro won 10 penalties last season and conceded just 3. Only Reading (11) won more spot kicks last term.

On The Day – 14th August 1998

Frank Sinclair completed his move from Chelsea to Leicester for what was then a club record fee of £2.55m. Exactly one year later he would score for his former club in the dying seconds to deny City their second win of the 1999/00 season. It finished Leicester 2-2 Chelsea.